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Text |Buer Research, Author | Yixin Yongyang, Typesetting | Yixin, Producer | Yoda
"The Most Awesome Ten Yuan Store" Miniso (NYSE: MNSO) is going to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to ring the bell!
htmlOn December 31, Miniso submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, planning to return to Hong Kong for dual listing. According to its prospectus, the IPO fundraising plan is intended to be used for store network expansion and upgrading.In the prospectus, Miniso announced its overall performance for fiscal year 2021: revenue in fiscal year 2021 was 9.072 billion yuan, an increase of 1.03% year-on-year; adjusted net profit was 480 million yuan, a decrease of 50.55% year-on-year.
Among them, the revenue from June 30, 2021 to December 31, 2021 was 5.427 billion yuan, an increase of 24.2% year-on-year; during the same period, the adjusted net profit was 398 million yuan, an increase of 114.16% year-on-year.
Despite this, in the new version of the prospectus, Miniso still seems to have not told too many new stories; its goal of "hundred countries, hundreds of billions of stores" has not been fulfilled for a long time. Will returning to Hong Kong to go public as a "good medicine" for Miniso?
In an old article at the end of December last year, "Buer Research" disclosed that Miniso was seeking to go public in Hong Kong. At that time, this "most awesome ten-yuan store" was encountering a growth bottleneck, and its stock price fell again and again.
Unfortunately, after the end of the first quarter of this year, Miniso's stock price was still in a low period. As of the close of US stocks on April 1, Eastern Time, Miniso closed at US$8.17 per share; it has fallen by 60.87% from the closing price of the first day of the IPO, and its market value has fallen by US$38.44.
Putting aside macro factors, the "most awesome ten-yuan store" is still facing the dilemma of invading the hinterland of trendy toy brands. When a new wave of consumption swept, how can Miniso find a way to break through? Who is the best solution to going overseas or trendy toys? Therefore, we have updated some data and charts of the old article in December. The following Enjoy:
"The Most Awesome Ten Yuan Store" Miniso (NASDAQ:MNSO) seeks to return to Hong Kong to go public. Can it be redeemed in adversity?
htmlOn November 23, several media broke the news that according to people familiar with the matter, Miniso is cooperating with Bank of America and UBS to discuss matters related to the secondary listing in Hong Kong, and is expected to raise hundreds of millions of dollars. Miniso said it would not comment.Previously, on December 21, the board of directors of Miniso also authorized to repurchase up to US$200 million of issued Class A common shares or American depositary shares through a share repurchase plan, valid until September 21, 2022. On the day the repurchase plan was announced, its stock price rose 8.86%.
As of the close of US stocks on April 1, Eastern Time, Miniso closed at US$8.17 per share; it has fallen by 60.87% from the closing price of the first day of the IPO, and its market value has fallen by US$38.44.
Frequent capital operations may restore its stock price decline in a short period of time. However, in the view of "Buer Research", the crux of Miniso's stock price has been falling and falling again and again may be that its performance and development potential are not favored by investors, and the goal of "100 countries, 100 billion stores" has not been fulfilled for a long time.
In the third quarter of this year, Miniso's revenue growth rate declined, and the pace of opening stores was also slowing down; although its layout of the trendy toy track is slightly effective, the future challenges of the IP trendy toy track are not small.
is different from the IPO in the United States that year, Miniso is experiencing a "pain period" of growth: on the one hand, it has many crux of itself; on the other hand, it faces the impact and encirclement of emerging trendy brands. Returning to Hong Kong IPO is not a panacea. How can Miniso break through in adversity?
revenue growth rate continued to decline
In 2004, Ye Guofu targeted the low-priced women's jewelry market and created the "Oayaya" chain jewelry point. In 2010, it grew to nearly 3,000 stores with annual sales exceeding 1 billion yuan. But the rise of e-commerce a few years later made "Oaya" gradually decline, and Ye Guofu's first entrepreneurship ended in failure.
In 2013, Ye Guofu and Japanese young designer Shun Miyake also founded Miniso. At the beginning of its establishment, it quickly developed to major cities across the country with its cost-effectiveness advantages and the scale effect brought by the rapid expansion of stores. It was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2020.
, but the first annual report it submitted after its listing seems not to be satisfactory. According to Miniso's financial report, from June 30, 2020 to June 30, 2021, its total revenue was 9.072 billion yuan, an increase of only 1.03% year-on-year, not yet reaching the pre-epidemic level.During the same period, the adjusted net profit was 480 million yuan, a year-on-year -50.55%.
and its operating losses further expanded. According to the financial report, its operating losses were 1.429 billion yuan from June 30, 2021, an increase of 5.49 times from the same period last year.
In Q3 2021, Miniso's revenue growth rate had problems again. According to its financial report, in Q3 2021, it achieved revenue of 2.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.09%. Miniso achieved revenue of 2.229 billion yuan and 2.472 billion yuan in Q1 and Q2 2021, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 36.51% and 59.18% respectively.
021 revenue growth rate dropped by 31.09 percentage points from Q2 2021. And according to Miniso's estimate, its revenue in Q4 2021 will be between 2.5-2.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%-17.51% year-on-year, and the growth rate will further decline. In the view of "Buer Research", Miniso's current financial situation is worrying, with huge operating losses and a decline in revenue growth rate, etc., it is facing growth troubles. Regardless of whether it is successfully returned to Hong Kong to list, if the problem of operating losses cannot be solved or it is difficult to gain the favor of investors, listing is not a panacea.
"Hundred countries, tens of billions of stores" are difficult to become?
In 2017, the ambitious Ye Guofu once said that "Minisson will enter 100 countries in 2019, open 10,000 stores, and achieve annual sales revenue of 100 billion."
However, this idea is not implemented. In 2019, Ye Guofu adjusted his expansion plan to "hundred countries, hundreds of billions of stores" to 2022.
But this plan still seems to be difficult to implement.
First look at the "Hundred Countries". After years of hard work by Miniso, it has indeed deployed its stores in 100 countries. This goal is the only goal that has been achieved.
looks at the "100 billion" again. According to its financial report and revenue forecast, Miniso's natural annual revenue in 2021 should be 9.833 billion to 10.033 billion yuan, only one-tenth of the revenue of 10 billion yuan.
Last view "Wanshang". On December 18, Miniso's 5000th store in the world opened in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, marking that the total number of stores in the North American market of Miniso has reached 100 and the global stores exceeds 5,000. The goal of "Wanshang" is still halfway to go.
At present, the only one that has been realized in Miniso’s “Hundred Nations, Thousand Billions Stores” plan is “Hundred Nations”. It is still far from the goal of "100 billion stores". Unless a big explosion occurs, it is impossible for Miniso to achieve its goal in 2022.
Putting aside this out of reach goal, looking at Miniso’s store opening speed and operating conditions, “Buer Research” found that Miniso’s store opening speed has begun to slow down, and the growth rate of domestic business revenue is constantly declining.
In terms of store opening speed, Miniso added 73 new stores in QI-Q4 in 2021, 162 new stores, 122 and 133 respectively, both lower than the 184 new stores in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the number of new stores in Q3 2021 was 40 lower than the second quarter, and the growth rate of domestic and foreign stores slowed down simultaneously.
From the perspective of revenue structure, Miniso's domestic business achieved revenue of 2.031 billion yuan in Q3 2021, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, accounting for 76.53% of revenue; international business achieved revenue of 623 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.0%, accounting for 23.47%. The high growth of
international business has restored a certain decline for Miniso, but "Buer Research" believes that the epidemic abroad has continued to recur, which has increased uncertainty about Miniso's offline store expansion and revenue growth. The domestic market may be an effective position for expansion in the short term.
However, Miniso's domestic revenue growth is shrinking. According to its financial report, its domestic revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 1.79 billion yuan, 1.95 billion yuan and 2.03 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 74.8%, 43.0%, and 17.9%, respectively.
In the view of "Buer Research", Miniso's goal of "100 countries, 100 billion stores" is difficult to achieve in the short term. Although foreign business achieved high growth in the third quarter of 2021, the repeated epidemic situation in foreign countries is that there are many variables in the development of offline stores abroad. At present, the growth rate of domestic business is constantly declining. What Miniso urgently needs is to find a second growth curve.
pathfinding second growth curve
trendy toys is the answer given by Miniso to the second growth curve.
In December 2020, Miniso launched the trendy toy brand TOPTOY, which is positioned as the "Asian trendy toy gathering point". The first store opened its first global store in Zhengjia Plaza, Guangzhou on December 18, 2020. It has an area of over 400 square meters and has more than 4,000 SKUs, bringing together IP and trendy toy brands such as Hello Kitty, Marvel, Disney, DC, Naruto.
Photo source @TOPTOY Asian Trendy Toy Collection Official Weibo
As of September 30, 2021, the total number of TOPTOY stores has reached 72, with a net increase of 39 stores in a single quarter, including 9 Dream Factory stores and 63 collection stores.
According to the financial report, TOPTOY achieved revenue of 109 million yuan in Q3 2021, exceeding 100 million yuan for the first time, a month-on-month increase of 64%.
According to iMedia Consulting data, the global trendy toy industry scale reached 149.3 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 19.7% year-on-year; in the same year, the scale of China's trendy toy market reached 29.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44% year-on-year. It is estimated that the scale of China's trendy toy market will reach 57.5 billion yuan by 2023.
However, "Buer Research" believes that if Miniso wants to continue to make efforts in the trendy toy market, it is difficult for it to cross a mountain called "own IP" in a short period of time. The core of the trendy toy market in
is channel and IP. For Miniso, which has 5,000 stores, the channel advantages are self-evident.
However, unlike Pop Mart's business model that mainly uses its own IP, TOP TOY is currently launching original IP products, and currently trendy toys with external and cooperative IPs are still the mainstream. The ratio of brand external and original products is about 7:3, absorbing more internationally renowned trendy toy products and IPs, and preferring the "department store model".
This makes TOPTOY's own IP a weakness. In the fiercely competitive trend toy track, competitors such as Pop Mart, 52Toys, Twelve Building Culture, and Cool Trend Toys are constantly fighting, and IP authorization is difficult to monopolize. TOPTOY's department store model is difficult to build competitive barriers, and it is hard to say whether it can continue to survive.
In the view of "Buer Research", the current trendy toy market space is large, but the competition is also fierce. TOPTOY's "department store model" may help it expand rapidly in the early stage, but only 30% of the original proportion makes its competitive barrier too low. After expansion to a certain level, the weakness of its own IP will easily make it surpassed by its competitors. Under such fierce competition, there is not much time left for TOPTOY's own IP.
trendy toys or going overseas, who is the "weapon" to break through?
The current Miniso seems to be suffering from the pain and bottleneck of growth.
's revenue growth rate continues to decline, the store opening speed slows down, and the domestic revenue growth rate is also declining. How can Miniso save itself in the bottleneck?
Going to sea and toys are the solutions he came up with for himself, but they are also confused.
went overseas. Miniso's overseas revenue growth rate in the third quarter of 2021 was as high as 78%, and the gross profit margin of overseas stores was significantly higher than that of domestic stores. However, the epidemic situation overseas has been repeated, and the uncertainty of going overseas is strong in the short term. Miniso can only use going overseas as a long-term breakthrough path.
trendy toys. At present, TOPTOY has expanded rapidly. The "department store model" with a ratio of 7:3 to original products has brought rapid growth to it in the short term, but the weaknesses of its own IP have brought uncertainty to future expansion.
to go overseas and trendy toys, who can help Miniso break through the bottleneck?
Some reference materials in this article:
- "How strong is the purchasing power of the "Z Generation"? Look at Miniso's Q1 Financial Report for the 2022 fiscal year", Southern Plus
- "Minso's revenue growth rate has declined again, and the annual revenue and bold words are still 90 billion yuan, Hillhouse failed to buy at the bottom", Titanium Media
- "The market value of the "most awesome ten-yuan store" has dropped sharply, what has Miniso encountered? 》, AI Finance and Economics
- "Another industry sample was born! Miniso takes the road of "surprise attack"", Five flavors of life
