data is a treasure
data treasure
stock trading less worries
euro hit parity against the US dollar, the first time in nearly 20 years.
On July 12, Beijing time, the euro fell below par against the US dollar (i.e. 1 euro = 1 US dollar), and the exchange rate reached the lowest level of 0.99999 in 5 days. This is the first time since 2003.
Since the advent of the euro, it is more expensive than the US dollar. Historically (April 22, 2008), 1 euro can be converted up to US$1.5998. But from the trend point of view, the perception that the euro is more expensive than the US dollar may be subverted. The emergence of COVID-19 has broken the original economic, social and financial ecology, and the money market is also experiencing a new "arrangement and combination". Not only the euro, including the yen, are depreciating. The US dollar index has been rising, setting a high point since July 2002. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has depreciated by more than 11% against the US dollar, and the yen has depreciated by more than 16% against the US dollar.
In comparison, the RMB is still very strong and resilient. Especially since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's epidemic prevention and control has been very stable, the economy has maintained stable growth, and China's assets are even more popular around the world. From the beginning of the year to the present, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar by less than 5%.
Why the euro is weakening
Will it continue to depreciate in the future
The first time in 11 years interest rate hikes is about to start, and coupled with the impact of energy and supply chains, it is a high probability that the euro will continue to weaken.
CICC said that the energy crisis is the main factor restricting the recent euro trend. If Europe cannot obtain enough natural gas reserves, rising energy prices may have a destructive impact on the European economy and balance of payments.
Goldman Sachs expects that the probability of euro zone falling into recession in the next year is 40%, higher than that of the United States (30%). The biggest risk facing Europe is the chaos in energy supply, and the overall trade balance of the euro zone has worsened due to high energy prices. The euro zone has suffered losses for six consecutive months as of April, which is also a factor that has led to the depreciation of the euro.
html high-priced stocks above 2300 yuan fell sharply
average valuation exceeds 100 times
days Qi Lithium Industry has fallen sharply in the past two days, touching the limit down several times during Monday's session, and fell nearly 5% on Tuesday; BYD continued to fall sharply on the 3rd day, and Kailaiying , Zhuoshengwei, Naxinwei and others have fallen by more than 8% this week.
These well-known companies with high activity seem to have reached an agreement on expectations. Since July, they have fallen and collapsed one after another. These companies also have a common feature, they are high-priced stocks in in the A-share market. Whether high-priced stocks have entered a period of sharp decline recently, Securities Times ·Databao is classified according to the latest closing price , and calculates the average rise and fall of listed companies in each range since July.
high-priced stocks have had a large pullback since July, with an average decline of 3.43% for stocks exceeding 300 yuan since July, with an average decline of 3.01% for stocks between 200 yuan and 300 yuan in the same period; stocks below 10 yuan have the smallest average decline, only 1.74%.
After experiencing a sharp rise in the stock prices of listed companies, their valuations often deviate from reasonable ranges. According to statistics from Databao, among the companies with different stock price ranges above, the average price-to-earnings ratio of stocks above 300 yuan (calculated as companies that do not exceed 500 times) exceeds 100 times, and the average price-to-earnings ratio of stocks from 150 yuan to 300 yuan exceeds 70 times; the average price-to-earnings ratio of companies from 10 yuan to 30 yuan is relatively low, below 50 times; the average price-to-earnings ratio of stocks below 10 yuan is 51.34 times.
These high-priced stocks have declined in net profit in the first half of the year
In addition to the factors of excessive valuation, the decline in performance is also a major inducement of the decline in the company's stock price. Databao statistics show that the latest closing date of the stock price exceeds 30 yuan, and the upper limit of net profit growth in 2022 is less than 0, mainly distributed in the machinery and equipment, electronics and other industries.
Judging from the performance forecast for the first half of the year, Zhongjing Technology's net profit growth upper limit in the first half of 2022 was -58.83%, mainly due to the fact that the procurement costs of raw and auxiliary materials increased significantly during the reporting period compared with the same period last year. Downstream customers were affected by the decline in terminal demand and the epidemic, and the decline in order demand; Zhuosheng slightly fell by more than 24.69%. During the reporting period, due to the repeated changes in the epidemic and the slowdown in the growth rate of macroeconomic , the market demand in the mobile phone industry was depressed, resulting in a decline in the company's operating performance.
From the perspective of valuation, the price-to-earnings ratio of China UAV, Xinbang Intelligent, Zhongjing Technology, etc. exceeds 40 times. China UAV's price-to-earnings ratio exceeded 130 times, and the company's net profit fell slightly in the first half of the year.
Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
Editor in charge: Zhou Sha
Databao
Databao (shujubao2015): Securities Times Intelligent Original Innovation Media.
