Reporter Xie Ruolin, Intern Reporter Han Yu,
According to Xinhua Finance, on the afternoon of October 24, the October PMI data of euro zone was released. Among them, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in October was 46.6, a new low since June 2020. The initial value of the service industry PMI was 48.2, in line with market expectations, but it was still a new low in the past 20 months. The initial value of comprehensive PMI was 47.1, lower than the previous market expectation of 47.6, hitting a new low in the past 23 months, and also lower than the " boom and bust line " for four consecutive months.
PMI data report released by S&P Global (SP Global) said that the economic situation of euro zone continued to decline in October. Manufacturing activities have further weakened, especially the output of energy-intensive industries has been hit hard. In addition, as inflation problems have not improved significantly, the cost of living for residents has soared, and the activity related to the service industry has also declined at an accelerated pace.
"Currently, the fundamentals of European economy are gradually weakening, and the risk of economic recession is increasing." Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the China Banking Institute, believed in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the eurozone economy currently faces multi-level risks.
, on the one hand, is the risk of energy shortage. Under the influence of air cessation and gas shortage, not only will the living and consumption costs of residents increase, but the normal production and operation of enterprises are also affected. Many industries with large energy consumption face the risks of production cuts or production restrictions, and industrial output and employment may decline. On the other hand, the risk of monetary policy is greatly tightened. Under the pressure of high inflation, the European Central Bank is expected to continue to raise interest rates significantly, which will further curb residents' consumption and increase corporate financing costs. In addition, under the economic recession and energy shortage crisis, enterprises and cross-border capital have accelerated outflows from the euro zone, resulting in the continued depreciation of the euro and increased liquidity and debt risks. The
report shows that Germany's economic contraction among the euro zone countries is the fastest. Germany's comprehensive PMI fell to 44.1 in October, the lowest since June 2009 except for the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The initial value of the manufacturing PMI also hit 45.7, the lowest in 28 months. Its manufacturing and service activities are showing a rapid downward trend.
In addition, France's manufacturing PMI also declined compared with September, but the output of the service sector expanded moderately, offsetting the contraction of the manufacturing sector's output.
The European Central Bank will announce its October interest rate resolution on the evening of October 27th Beijing time. Xinhua Finance News shows that Danish Bank believes that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week. The main reason is that Europe's inflation rate is high, and although growth is slowing, the labor market has shown no signs of weakness.
The latest data released by the European Union Bureau of Statistics showed that the final year-on-year value of the eurozone's reconciled CPI in September was 9.9%, which is still a record high value.
In Wang Youxin's view, as inflation in the euro zone continues to rise, the pressure to curb inflation is more urgent. It is expected that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates significantly at this interest rate meeting, and the second consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points will be a high probability event.
With high inflation, energy shortage and increasing economic downturn risks, the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar has also continued to depreciate this year, with a cumulative depreciation of more than 13%. Between October 14 and October 21, the center of gravity of the euro exchange rate fluctuated, and the weekly increase of the euro against the US dollar was about 1.46%. However, industry insiders believe that the euro exchange rate is still difficult to say it has stabilized.
Zhao Qingming, deputy director of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that although the recent intervention of the Japanese government in the market has brought about different degrees of appreciation, from the perspective of fundamentals and currency, the US dollar index will still be strong, and there is still no possibility of a turning point, and the euro exchange rate is also under high probability.
CITIC Futures research report stated that the current huge trade deficit in the euro area is still bad for the euro. Whether the subsequent decline in foreign demand and the decline in natural gas price on the trade deficit can form an hedge will be one of the key factors affecting the euro's exchange rate trend. The ECB's interest rate agenda meeting in October will be an important window period to verify whether the "hawkish interest rate hikes can effectively boost the euro."
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production | Zhu Lingzi
review | Zhu Baochen
editing | Bai Baoyu
final review | Li Hui
