•ANZ : The euro may fall to parity against the US dollar in the long run
• National Bank of Canada: The euro is expected to fall to 1.03
• Fanon Bank: Hold a neutral position on the Canadian dollar
•Goldman Sachs : The US government may pass at least one fiscal relief plan
•Bank of America : If the US dollar index falls Break 96 means that the most troublesome period of the market has gone far away
•Taking Securities: It is recommended to short
after the euro-JPY rebounded correctly against the yen [Institutional Analysis]
•ANZ Bank analysts pointed out that although in the short term, the Federal Reserve's strong unrestricted easing measures, together with the decline in global market demand for the US dollar after the cooling of the epidemic, will put pressure on the US dollar index and fall back, which is a good deal for non-US currencies led by the euro. However, in the long run, the backward countries of the euro zone, especially Italy and Spain, are already deeply involved in fiscal and debt crises, and the situation will become worse due to the impact of the epidemic. This is the more difficult problem that the euro zone will face in the future. The bank's analysts therefore expect that the euro-dollar will continue to decline this year against the backdrop of the euro zone's own economic fragility, and is expected to remain around 1.05 at the end of the year. In the long run, while the overall economic potential remains strong in the United States and weak in Europe, the euro-dollar may still fall to parity level in the long run.
•National Bank of Canada said that in the event of a possible severe recession, the ECB is more likely to relax monetary policy through further unconventional measures, which in theory will put pressure on the euro. The euro has been hit by the prospect of a severe recession in the euro zone and there is room for further declines. The ECB will do its best to cushion the shock by digging deep into unconventional policies. The EU has mishandled the epidemic crisis and has produced remarks in Italy and other places that may lead to the disintegration of the EU. The political rebound triggered by this is not good for the euro, and it continues to be expected to fall to 1.03 against the US dollar this year.
•Credit Bank of France holds a neutral stance on the Canadian dollar. For the Canadian dollar, this week, the key is to look at the performance of international oil markets and Canadian employment data.
•Goldman Sachs economists believe that the U.S. government may pass at least one more fiscal relief package, which may include providing more funds for small businesses, increasing unemployment assistance and possibly launching a second round of cash payments to Americans.
•Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, said that the decline in the dollar will mean that the economic outlook is more optimistic. He noted that when the ICEX's dollar index fell below 96, it would mean that the trouble might have passed. He said the US dollar index is the "best barometer" to track the impact of the epidemic on the market.
•TD Securities Research Department said it is expected to sell strategically at the opportunity of the euro-JPY rebounding toward the 118.50/119.25 position. The bank said that many major currencies are now strengthening, but some are weak in positions. The yen belongs to the former, and its current account structure shows higher bids compared to many other major currencies, while the euro, Canadian dollar and British pound belongs to the latter. The conclusion is that the euro will decline against the Japanese yen, and the decline in the real yield of US bonds will also promote the downward trend of the euro against the Japanese yen. It is expected that the pair will rebound to 118.50/119.25 first, and then shorting can be considered. The decline of this pair will also put pressure on the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
Editor: Wang Xiaowei
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