Global macro
Before Thursday, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell differently
After Powell "let the eagle", Goldman Sachs UBS and others quickly raised their forecasts: another 75 basis points in November
After the Fed raised interest rates for the third consecutive rate hike on Wednesday, and after Fed Chairman Powell sent a tough signal, international banks including Goldman Sachs, UBS and Barclays quickly raised their expectations for the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike. Goldman Sachs economists said they currently expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December, and another 25 basis points in February next year. The peak of the federal funds rate will fall in the 4.5%-4.75% range, the previous forecast was 4%-4.25%.
Wall Street is the most optimistic! Morgan Morgan: If the US economy falls into a deep recession next year, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates to save the market
Wall Street's most determined bull, JPMorgan Chase chief equity strategist, pointed out in a latest report released on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will take "rate cuts to save the market" measures when a serious economic recession becomes a reality and corporate profits have dropped sharply. It said the Fed may be market-friendly in 2023, coupled with investors' low positions and a decline in long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that even if the economy slows next year, there is limited downside for the stock market at the current level.
hikes interest rates for a while and repaying debts in tears. Will the US federal deficit add another $2.1 trillion hole?
The Federal Reserve announced another hike of interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the latest radical move taken by the Federal Reserve to curb high inflation. However, the move could also have a range of side effects, including not only the potential recession but also the potential to further exacerbate the fiscal deficit facing the federal government in the coming years. According to a new forecast by the nonprofit U.S. Federal Budget Committee (CRFB), a rate hike announced this week alone will increase the government deficit by $2.1 trillion over the next decade.
Investors "vote with their feet"! The U.S. stock high-dividend ETF has attracted nearly $18 billion since March
Since the Fed started its interest rate hike cycle in mid-March this year, a large amount of funds have poured into the high-dividend ETF, and the world's largest $SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY.US)$, which tracks the S&P 500 Index, experienced capital outflows during this period. The five largest high-dividend ETFs inflows totaled $17.87 billion, of which $US dividend ETF-Schwab (SCHD.US)$ attracted the most funds, reaching $6.85 billion. This phenomenon highlights investors' uncertainty about the market outlook and move towards more traditional and safe investment products.
- html plummeted 20% within 3 years. Where is the future direction of "Dr. Copper"?
Copper futures prices, known as the global economy umbrella, continue to be sluggish, with London copper falling more than 20% since the beginning of the year as investors fear a global recession would curb copper demand. Analysis expects that in the long run, the global electrification process will significantly push up copper prices, but under the current recession panic, copper prices may still have room for nearly 15% to fall in the short term.
Bank Securities: Dry bulk cargo and oil tanker freight will have seasonal support in the next two months
Bank Securities issued a report stating that due to normalization of inventory, transfer of consumer demand and early completion of peak season, global trade deteriorated in August and September this year, which led to a larger decline in spot freight costs for cargo ships than expected. The bank's survey shows that the greater the room for spot freight costs, the greater the pressure on contract freight costs. However, the bank believes that due to the seasonal positives of grains and coal and the intensified typhoon blockage, dry bulk freight costs have begun to improve, and it is expected that seasonal factors will still be supported by the next one to two months. In addition, Bank of America is expected to support the freight rates of oil tankers in the next few months, mainly due to the normal and strong stock supply in winter, coupled with the growth in demand from Europe, and Russia's reduction in imports.
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Star Technology Stocks Pre-Pre-Trade Trend Differentiation
Tesla recalled nearly 1.1 million U.S. cars
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ recalled nearly 1.1 million U.S. cars because the window automatic reversal system may not respond correctly after detecting obstacles. As of press time, Tesla rose slightly before the market trading.
Flying car market is difficult to do, and the company invested by Google founder Kittyhawk announced that it would be closed
According to CNBC, on Wednesday local time, $Google-C(GOOG.US)$/$Google-A(GOOGL.US)$$ co-founder Larry Page announced that it would be closed. The company has stopped the research and development of Heaviside's all-electric flying car, internal sources said. While Kitty Hawk is stopping developing its own aircraft, at least one project will continue in its joint venture with Boeing (BA.N). On Wednesday local time, Boeing said Wisk Aero's operations will not be affected by the closure of Kitty Hawk.
Tesla photovoltaic package has become a selling point for new houses? Residents: Energy saving has passive income
According to Electrek, $TSLA (TSLA.US)$ and US real estate developers are installing Solar Roof (PV roof) and Powerwall in Austin (a city in Texas, USA). Austin may usher in the world's first Tesla photovoltaic community. Industry insiders revealed that Tesla plans to restart the project in the fourth quarter.
chart | Houses with Tesla Solar Roof and Powerwall, source: Electrek
Salesforce rose by more than 2% before the market, and raised revenue guidance for fiscal year 2023
$Safetime (CRM.US)$ rose by more than 2% before the market. Previously, the company set its revenue target for fiscal year 2026 at US$50 billion and expects operating profit margin to be 25% in fiscal year 2026. In addition, the company increased its revenue guidance for fiscal 2023 from US$26.5 billion in fiscal 2022 to US$30.9-31 billion. It is reported that the company has begun to repurchase its own shares through its first stock repurchase project.
UK launches an antitrust investigation into Amazon, Microsoft and Google’s cloud business
According to CNBC, British media regulator Ofcom launched a cloud business investigation into $AMAZN.US, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $Google-A (GOOGL.US)$. Over the next few weeks, the agency will check whether the cloud businesses of these companies are hampering competition. If these companies have behavior that hinders competition, regulators will take further action.
Amazon AWS will set up a new operation center in Mexico in the first quarter of next year
According to foreign media reports, $AMS (AMZN.US)$'s AWS Mexico company will set up an operation center locally in the first quarter of next year to increase bandwidth for customers. The infrastructure deployment adopted by the new center is called "local zones" and supports real-time gaming, media and entertainment content production, and engineering simulation. Totalplay, a telecom company owned by Mexico's third-richest man, will provide advice on AWS cloud services, and the two parties will work together to expand their business in the Mexican cloud market. The Mexican cloud market will be approximately US$1.4 billion in 2021 and is expected to increase to US$2.7 billion by 2025.
Focus on Chinese stocks
Most popular Chinese stocks rose before the market trading
Ideal Auto rose nearly 6% before the market trading. It was previously announced that it will hold the Ideal L8 press conference on September 30
$Ideal Auto (LI.US)$ official microscope announced that the Ideal L8 press conference will officially start at 15:00 on September 30, 2022, and the price will start after it is announced. During the National Day holiday, Ideal L8 show cars will arrive at Ideal Automobile Retail Centers across the country and will officially start delivery in early November. As of press time, Ideal Auto rose nearly 6% before the market trading.
Alibaba Cloud invests 7 billion yuan in the next three years to build an international localized ecosystem
Alibaba Cloud announced on the 22nd that it will continue to accelerate its overseas layout, invest 7 billion yuan in the next three years to build an international localized ecosystem, add 6 overseas service centers in Malaysia, Dubai and other places, and reach cooperation with nearly 30 overseas companies at the summit. As of press time, $ALIBA (BABA.US)$ rose more than 1% before the market trading.
Baidu rose slightly before the disk, and released the new generation of Xiaodu delivery robot
$BIDU.US$ Yesterday, the new generation of Xiaodu delivery robot was released, which can be used in hotels and has strong dialogue capabilities. It is reported that Xiaodu delivery robot can also provide patrol services to guests in the hotel lounge area to deliver tea breaks, or lead guests to the room instead of waiters.Some analysts said that in the post-epidemic era, contactless delivery and services in the hotel service industry have allowed hotel delivery robots to grow "barbaric". As of press time, Baidu rose slightly before the market.
Pre-market trading volume TOP20
US stock macro calendar reminder
20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to September 17
20:30 US second quarter current account
22:00 US August consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate
22:30 US EIA natural gas inventory
22:30 US to September 16 EIA natural gas inventory
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