Buy Steel Stainless Steel Weekly Review (2021/07/26-07/30): Stainless steel is at the threshold of tens of thousands of yuan, and the price reduction in the 201 weekend was unexpectedly reduced
Buy Steel Stainless Steel Spot
1. Review of stainless steel market:
Stainless steel varieties rose across the board this week, and "production restrictions", "inventory decline" and "increasing steel export tariffs do not involve stainless steel" hit new highs again under the support of fundamental information. 304 cold-rolled stainless steel exceeded 20,000 yuan/ton, and 201J1 cold-rolled stainless steel exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton.
Buy Gangle Stainless Steel Electronic Trading 304 Cold Rolling Three varieties closed at 19,250 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from last week, up by 3.77%; Buy Gangle 304 Cold Rolling Spot Index closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, up 1,030 yuan/ton from last week, up 5.31%; 304 Hot Rolling Spot Index closed at 19,500 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from last week, up 7.14%; 201J1 Cold Rolling Spot Index closed at 10,900 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan/ton from last week, up 11.79%.
2. Important financial information this week:
Domestic market:
1. At present, 27 provinces across the country have announced the first half of the year's economic data. The economic recovery in many places has reached the pre-epidemic level. Among the 27 provinces, one-third of the GDP growth rate outperformed the national level of 12.7% in the same period in the first half of the year.
2. Ministry of Ecology and Environment : In the next step, we will continue to carry out the second round of inspection work, focusing on the "three new" and promoting high-quality development, strictly controlling the blind launch of the "two highs" projects and the implementation of the "look back" of capacity reduction, etc., and conducting a key verification of the rectification and implementation of the central ecological environment protection inspection and the "look back" problems found.
3. CCTV.com: On July 29, the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau issued the second batch of national copper, aluminum and zinc reserves to the market, which is another sale after the release of 10 tons of copper, aluminum and zinc on July 5 to stabilize the sharp rise in industrial raw material prices.
4. Recently, the "14th Five-Year Plan for Industrial Green Development" and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Raw Materials Industry Development Plan" will be released soon. At the same time, relevant departments will formulate carbon peak implementation plans for key industries such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, and steel, and clarify the implementation path for industrial carbon reduction.
5. On July 30, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee "named" commodities. The meeting pointed out that the work of ensuring the supply and price stability of commodities should be done well.
International market:
1.Feder Chairman Powell: The US real GDP is expected to achieve the fastest growth in decades; inflation has risen significantly and will remain high in the next few months, which may be higher and longer than expected, and will ease later.
2. The United Nations "Carbon Neutralization Path Map" report shows that as of April, 33 countries or regions around the world have promulgated or proposed relevant legislation on carbon neutrality , or issued relevant policy documents, representing a total of 66% of the total global emissions. It is predicted that by 2025, about 75% of the global total emissions are expected to be included in strict supervision through legislative or administrative means.
3. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 22nd showed that as of the week ending July 17, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States increased by 51,000 to 419,000 month-on-month, a significant increase from the market's general expectations of 350,000, and also hit the highest since the week on May 15.
4. CITIC Securities : Judging from the actual economy and the recovery status of inflation , the European economy still has a long way to go to return to the normal economy, and the epidemic in Europe is more serious than the United States, and the overall vaccination progress is slower than that of the United States. Therefore, it is expected that the recovery of the European economy and currency normalization will lag behind the Federal Reserve.
5. US Department of Commerce: In June, the initial value of the commodity trade deficit expanded from US$88.2 billion in May to US$91.2 billion, exceeding expectations; imports increased by 1.5% to US$236.666 billion; exports increased by 0.3%, reaching US$145.459 billion.
3. Related news from the stainless steel industry:
1. The State Council Tariff Commission announced that from August 1, 2021, the export tariffs for ferrochromium and high-purity pig iron will be appropriately increased, and the export tax rates of 40% and 20% will be implemented after adjustments.
2. The Ministry of Finance announced that from August 1, 2021, the export tax rebate for 23 steel products will be cancelled, including cold-rolled coils, coated plates, silicon steel , rails and oil pipes, etc. This is the second time that my country has adjusted its steel tariffs this year.
3. Stainless Steel Branch of China Special Steel Enterprise Association: China's stainless steel crude steel production in the first half of 2021 reached 16.243 million tons, an increase of about 20.82% year-on-year.
4. Production control plans in various places have been introduced one after another, and it is estimated that the annual scrap steel consumption will drop by 6% year-on-year compared with last year. In the second half of the year, domestic scrap steel prices may show a trend of first suppression and then rising, with the overall increase being weaker than finished steel.
5. At present, domestic high-carbon ferrochromium rarely has the opportunity to export for profitable purposes. After the policy adjustment, domestic low-microcarbon ferrochromium CIF costs will increase by at least 2,400 yuan/60 base tons. Indonesian stainless steel manufacturers, based on the current Chinese market price, the cost of high-carbon ferrochromium per ton has increased by 1,800 yuan/50 base ton compared with the previous period, and the increase in low microcarbon costs is consistent with the trade costs.
4. Stainless steel raw material market:
1. Coke:
National policy guidance accelerates the use of clean energy, prompting coke to not have a long-term good basis. The peak demand season in the third quarter also supports prices, and coke prices tend to stabilize.
Buy Gangle Coke Index closed at 2597 yuan/ton, the same as last week. .
2, nickel iron / electrolytic nickel :
Indonesia's epidemic is out of control, and the supply of nickel iron in the future is worrying to support the price of nickel iron. Electrolytic nickel is driven by the price of upstream nickel raw materials and downstream stainless steel.
Buy Steel Lego Nickel Iron Index closed at 1416 yuan/nickel, up 54 yuan/nickel from last week, up 3.96%; the electrolytic nickel index closed at 147,725 yuan/nickel, up 4,100 yuan/nickel from last week, up 2.85%.
3. Ferrochrome:
This week, due to power shortage, the price of ferrochrome continues to remain high, but due to the sharp limit on steel production and the decline in iron ore, ferrochrome remains sideways after Tuesday.
Buy Steel Lego Carbon Ferrochromium Index price closed at 11,238 yuan/50 base ton, up 63 yuan/50 base ton from last week, a gain of 0.56%.
Scrap:
Stainless steel mills have successively raised the purchase price of scrap stainless steel and continued to support the price to rise.
Buy Gangle 304 stainless steel scrap spot index closed at 13,558 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week, an increase of 3.04%.
5. Stainless steel hot rolling cost
Stainless steel using high nickel iron + nickel plate process smelting 304 hot rolling production cost is about 18,820 yuan/ton, and the hot rolling sales price is higher than the production cost 680 yuan/ton.
6. Stainless steel market analysis:
Stainless steel continued to maintain a strong rise this week. On the one hand, the shortage of electricity and typhoons pushed up the market price of raw materials, and on the other hand, the expected reduction in stainless steel production is expected to boost market prices. The stainless steel inventory announced this week shows that the inventory of 300 series stainless steel continues to decrease, and futures warehouse receipts have declined for a continuous week. The inventory of the 200 series began to increase slightly, and the price loosened on Friday continued. The price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton on Saturday compared with Friday, ending the pattern of only rising and not falling this week.
