In this international comment, Uncle Mu will analyze the war situation after Russia annexed the territory of four Ukraine.
Recently, when I was looking at foreign media, I found that no media's analysis supported Russia's actions, and almost every analysis believed that Russia's actions would not bring fundamental changes to the war.
The first reason is that Russia's control over the above four places is not firm. For example, the referendum was not held in all areas of the four places, and there is also a large-scale fraud of the turnout.
Second, Ukrainians continue to counterattack in four places, and can occupy part of the territory annexed by Russia at any time. It is impossible for Russia to use nuclear weapon for this, and it can only passively defend according to the previous model.
Therefore, "referendum to Russia" is basically equivalent to giving an explanation to some fanatical war supporters in Russia, and also giving the Russian people a psychological comfort, which has no practical significance to the outside world.
The Russian top leaders of course also knew that this annexation would not have a fundamental impact on the battle situation, but since this matter was operated, they obviously wanted to achieve some goals. This involves three possibilities for future wars.
first, Putin uses this as a bargaining chip to call for peace.
"Referendum to Russia" is regarded by the outside world as a "bet" that has increased the asking price with Ukraine. In other words, in Russia's view, these places already belong to Russia in name. If Ukraine does not negotiate with Russia, then the Russian army will occupy more places in the future.
At the same time, Russia also used its annexation of Ukrainian territory to speak to the West, hoping that the West would recognize Russia's sphere of influence and not stimulate Russia anymore.
If we negotiate with these existing boundaries, Russia will of course have more bargaining chips, and even if we make some concessions, we can get more.
Second, the combination of referendum and mobilization shows that Russia wants to reverse the decline.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a stalemate in the past few months, which is not a good thing for Russia, because the longer the time is delayed, the greater the opposition from the Russian people. And the more support Ukraine receives.
Especially not long ago, with the assistance of the West, Ukraine recovered thousands of square kilometers of lost land in the northeast in a short period of time. Russia must respond in a tougher way to avoid failure.
So whether it is the referendum or mobilization, it seems that Russia has been trying hard to reverse the decline in the short term, because mobilization and referendum have caused a huge wave of opposition inside and outside Russia. But in the long run, it may be to prepare for the future war.
Third, officially declare war on the outside world and start an unpredictable war mode. After the mobilization and referendum, Russia will definitely increase its crackdown on Ukraine. But how strong will it be? There are differences outside the world.
The most pessimistic prediction is that Russia wants to do a big fight.
If Russia feels that the war situation has not yet seen the reversal of their expectations after the annexation of the four places of Ukraine, then choosing to declare war may be a realistic consideration, because this will put the entire Russia into a wartime state, which is equivalent to a fight with Ukraine and even the West.
In particular, this kind of declaration of war is not only a declaration of war on Ukraine, but also a possibility of declaration of war on the West. The premise is that Ukraine continues to crack down on Russian interests with the support of the West, such as regaining part of the territory annexed by Russia in four regions, and Russia can no longer use partial mobilization to save it.
In other words, after the referendum, the risks of the Russian-Ukrainian war escalated, and Russia's actions increased unpredictability.
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