What is the world economy in 2021 and 2022? Let's do an overall analysis.
01
First of all, everyone knows that the world has faced two major problems since 2020.
The first is about the epidemic issue, and the second is the complexity of relations between countries. Therefore, the world economic situation and economic situation in 2021 have been shaped and the impact on 2022.
02
Take a look at the economic situation of major countries and regions around the world in 2021 and 2022 and the forecasts of experts and scholars.
Due to the impact of the 2020 epidemic, the economy fell sharply in 2020, so in general, the economy will rise in 2021 and will return in 2022.
Let’s take a look at the global forecast.
2021 is Global economic growth is 5.9%, a slight decline in 2022 is reported to 14.9%, this forecast for developed countries is 5.2%, and a forecast for 2022 is 4.5%. The contribution of developed countries to the global economy is 37%, and about one-third of the growth is brought about by developed countries.
and developing countries include China's overall economic growth in 2021, which is forecast to be 6.4%, and 5.1% in 2022, which is generally more than developed countries and its contribution to the world economy is 63%. From this we can see that compared with developed countries, the economic growth of developing countries has made greater contributions to the world.
Let’s take a look at China. China’s current forecast is that it will be about 8.1% in 2021, and it is estimated to be around 5.1 in 2022. The original forecast is 5.6. The new forecast is a little lower, and its contribution to the world economy is 26.3%.
Let’s take a look at the economic forecast for other major developed countries. The GDP forecast for the United States in 2021 is 3.7%, 2.4% in 2022, and its contribution to the world economy is 16.7%.
India is predicted that it will be between 8.4 and 9.5% in 2021, and the forecast for the second year of 2022 is about 8.5%, and its specific contribution to the world economy is 11%. In fact, it will reach about 2.95 trillion US dollars in 2021, and there is an optimistic estimate of 3.1, which we can see.
In fact, let’s look at its data. It was a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 20% in the second quarter, and a year-on-year increase of 8.4% in the third quarter. Judging from economic data, India is similar to ours in the second quarter, with rapid growth, but our base for 2020 is a little larger. From the perspective of 2021, India's share of our economy has decreased compared to ours because their growth rate is larger than ours, but our total volume base is larger. Although the growth rate is large, the total volume is not good, so its proportion has decreased.
The overall situation in Europe is like this. EU has a growth rate of 5.2% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022. The UK's growth rate in 2021 is 6.9, the growth rate in 2022 is 4.7%, France's growth rate in 2021 is 4.2%, and the growth rate in 2022 is 2.1%. In general, the EU, the UK, and France are all lower than the world average growth rate, and France's growth rate may be slightly lower. This is what we see.
03
Let’s take a look at some of our overall analysis of China’s economy and the analysis of China’s economy. At the beginning of the year, scholars including Liu Shijin also proposed that the target was 6%. In fact, it can be seen at the beginning of the year that it is 8~9%. We are adopting a relatively conservative estimate.
So this year is actually 8.1% for the whole year, but it is 3.9% in the fourth quarter and 4.9% in the third quarter. The growth rate has decreased. This is a factor. For example, domestic consumption will be affected to a certain extent, but in general, our growth rate is still relatively high. According to the view of the National People's Congress Liu Yuanchun , we are 4.9% in the fourth quarter, 8.1% for the whole year, and an average of 5.1% for the two years. It is estimated that the growth rate will be about 5.1% next year. Our overall forecast in 2022 is actually about 6.5% for the tertiary industry and about 4.3%. In terms of consumption, we have an increase of about 6%, which is what we can see in China's economic situation.
04
Overall, China's economy performed well in 2021, especially as we are facing the epidemic, the stumbling project, and the suppression of Western powers. We have achieved remarkable results. This is our overall analysis.
I hope that China's economy and the world economy will gradually improve in 22 years. However, the world economy will show two characteristics in 2022. One is that the epidemic will be alleviated, and the other is that international trade will be weakened, and differences between countries will increase. This is what we should pay special attention to.
