China's economy overcomes the adverse effects of multiple impacts beyond expectations, and the main indicators recover and stabilize, maintaining within a reasonable range; in the third quarter, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter
Picture/Visual China
Text | "Financial" reporter Sun Yingni
Editor | Wang Yanchun
The economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. On October 24, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of macroeconomic in the first three quarters of 2022 and in September. Data showed that GDP increased by 3.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, accelerating by 3.5 percentage points from the second quarter (0.4%). In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 3.0% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year, and the economy generally showed a positive recovery trend.
The main macroeconomic indicators of in the third quarter have improved significantly. Looking at the supply side of , the industrial industrial chain and supply chain recovered steadily in the third quarter, and the added value of industrial added in above scale in the country increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 4.1 percentage points from the second quarter.
demand side, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the third quarter increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the decline in the second quarter was 4.6%. In the third quarter, fixed asset investment increased by 5.7%, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points from the second quarter. In the first three quarters, China's total import and export value was 31.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year. of which, exports were 17.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.8%. The employment situation of
has also improved. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in the third quarter was 5.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter. From the perspective of the main groups of employed people, the average unemployment rate of labor force aged 25-59 in the third quarter was 4.4%, significantly lower than the average level of 4.9% in the first quarter and 5.0% in the second quarter; the average of local labor unemployment rate in the third quarter was 5.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the second quarter. Looking at the single month of
, the growth of major economic indicators is also accelerating. 9, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. From January to September, national fixed asset investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and from January to August, it was 5.8%. However, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 2.5% year-on-year (the previous value was 5.4%), which slowed down.
Previously, the financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China have sent a positive signal of positive economic recovery. data shows that RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 27.77 trillion yuan, 3.01 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In September, RMB loans were 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, 624.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Regarding the improvement of the economy, the National Bureau of Statistics stated that in general, China's economy overcomes the adverse effects of multiple impacts beyond expectations, the main indicators recover and stabilize, maintaining within a reasonable range, and the positive factors accumulate and increase. But we must also see that the external environment has become more complex and severe, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery is still not solid.
On October 17, at the first press conference held at the Twenty News Centers, Zhao Chenxin, member of the Party Leadership Group and deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China's economy has stabilized and rebounded in a relatively short period of time, showing strong resilience and huge potential. From a global perspective, China's economy still performs outstandingly. "Our consumer prices rose moderately, in sharp contrast to the high global inflation; our employment situation is generally stable; the balance of international payments is basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves remained above US$3 trillion."
Chief economist Liao Qun, Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China, told the reporter of "Finance" that with the continuous efforts of a package of policies to stabilize the economy, the economy recovered significantly in the third quarter, higher than market expectations. Among them, the industrial production on the supply side recovered beyond expectations, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment on the demand side accelerated. However, due to factors such as the epidemic, there is still a certain gap between the market predicted a strong rebound in the second half of the year, and the economic growth rate is still a certain distance from the potential economic growth rate of China's economy.Next, with the continued efforts of macro-policy , it is expected that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter will continue to accelerate compared with the third quarter, with an increase of about 5%.
industrial production recovery exceeded expectations, and it still needs to make efforts to boost consumption
supply side recovery exceeded expectations. data shows that the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, rebounding by 4.1 percentage points from the second quarter. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. "Finance" reporter learned that the forecast values for September were between 4.2% and 5.2% before, many securities institutions such as Great Wall Securities , ICBC International , Weiming Macro.
Chief economist of Zhixin Investment Lianping believes that with the orderly advancement of resumption of work and production, the continuous improvement of supply chain and logistics transportation, the decline of seasonal factors such as high temperatures, and the recovery of domestic demand, domestic industrial production basically recovered to the normal level at the end of the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, industrial production will continue to recover to the normal level.
At present, the impact of the epidemic on the supply side has decreased, but the impact on the demand side is still relatively large, especially consumption. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Compared with the total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter, the year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and consumption rebounded significantly in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. However, due to the recent spread of the epidemic, consumption in September grew by 2.5% year-on-year, down 2.9 percentage points from 5.4% in August.
weak consumption is also reflected in the tourism consumption income during the National Day. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the seven days of the National Day holiday, 422 million domestic travelers nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%, and recovered to 60.7% in the same period before the epidemic by comparable caliber. The domestic tourism revenue reached 287.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, and recovered to 44.2% in the same period before the epidemic.
Liao Qun told the "Finance" reporter that current consumption is one of the biggest drags on economic growth. Since the beginning of this year, consumer demand has been generally weak. On the one hand, in the context of the impact of the epidemic, the increase in unemployment rate, and the increase in various uncertainties, residents' consumption confidence, willingness and consumption capacity have all been reduced. On the other hand, it is affected by long-term problems such as unreasonable income distribution structure and large income gap among residents. These aspects will be the focus of reform in the future.
With the implementation of the fiscal package and the monetary policy of , investment has also maintained rapid growth and continues to play a strong role in driving economic growth. Data shows that from January to September, national fixed asset investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year (the previous value was 5.8%). Among the three major investments, infrastructure and manufacturing investment still maintained rapid growth. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from January to August, and rebounded for five consecutive months; manufacturing investment increased by 10.1%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from January to August.
However, real estate investment is still sluggish. htmlNational real estate development investment fell by 8.0% from November to September, and was 7.4% from January to August.
In order to stabilize the real estate market, relevant support policies have been continuously strengthened recently. On September 29, the People's Bank of China and Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to phased adjustments to differentiated housing credit policies. On September 30, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Announcement on Supporting Residents' Residents' Residents' Residents' Housing Exchange". On the same day, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan by 0.15 percentage points from October 1, 2022, and adjust the interest rates below 5 years (including 5 years) and above 5 years to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. Jiang Fei's team, chief macro analyst of Great Wall Securities, believes that the currently intensively introduced three consecutive real estate policies may be more reflected in the expected impact brought by the government's urgent need to restore the real estate market, but after the policy is implemented, the release of policy effects is still "in progress", and it may still take time for residents to recover their willingness to buy a house.
Liao Qun expects that the real estate policy will be more relaxed, the expectations of developers and residents will recover, and the real estate market will improve.
GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to reach about 5%
The last quarter remains in 2022. Regarding the next economic trend, Liao Qun believes that with the continued increase in macro policies, it is expected that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter will continue to accelerate compared with the third quarter. But looking at the whole year, it is very difficult to achieve the economic growth target of 5.5%. 's economic growth rate in the first three quarters was 3.0%, which means that if it reaches 4% for the whole year, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter would reach more than 6.5%, but at present, it is difficult to reach this growth rate. Liao Qun expects GDP growth to be around 5% in the fourth quarter, and 3.5%-4% for the whole year.
China Banking Research Institute also expects GDP to expand to around 5% in the fourth quarter, and China's actual economic growth rate will be around 3.5% in the entire 2022. Lian Ping also believes that the annual GDP growth rate may be in the range of 3.5%-4%.
Regarding the next macro policies, Liao Qun believes that the fourth quarter is very critical to the annual economic growth, and it is expected that fiscal and monetary policies will continue to increase. At present, consumption recovery is lower than expected, which has a great drag on economic growth. It is recommended to introduce more consumption stimulus policies in the future.
Director of the China Chief Economist Forum Wang Tao predicts that the Politburo meeting in late October and the Central Economic Work Conference in December may evaluate the current economic development and discuss or introduce economic policies to stabilize growth, which may include further lowering down payments and mortgage interest rates, supporting real estate developers' financing, increasing infrastructure investment, and increasing liquidity support.
Regarding the specific fiscal policy in the fourth quarter, Jiang Fei, chief macro analyst of Great Wall Securities, believes that there is a difference of about 1.55 trillion between the current special bond limit and balance, and has announced an increase of 500 billion. It is expected that the special bond quota will be increased by another 500 billion in the fourth quarter. Policy-based development financial instruments have added 300 billion quotas, and there is still a possibility of continuing in the fourth quarter.
The epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty factor affecting the economy. Liao Qun suggested that while adhering to the general policy of " dynamically clearing ", we must strengthen the scientificity and accuracy of epidemic prevention and control.
At the press conference of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held on October 15, the relevant person in charge also responded to the epidemic prevention and control policy. Conference spokesperson Sun Yeli said that it is precisely because of insisting on dynamic zeroing, insisting on preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy and safe development, that the economy and society have maintained the sustained and stable operation. If we calculate the general account, China's epidemic prevention measures are the most economical and effective.
"Our prevention and control strategies and measures will become more scientific, more precise and more effective, and the level of coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development will become higher and higher." Sun Yeli said.
