This is the 1068th original article of Panda Beibei:
20%, in the context of global economic environment and financial markets, this is a magical number.
Generally speaking, according to the definition of technical bear market by Wall Street, the world's most developed and sensitive financial system, a bear market is falling by more than 20% compared to the previous high.
Don’t talk about moving averages and other messy indicators. It’s hard to deal with a 20% drop, and it’s cured all diseases.
bear market has been technically established. A technical bear market is the initial stage of a real bear market.
The COVID-19 epidemic in the third year of the global pandemic, the Federal Reserve quickly tightened the monetary policy valve to curb inflation , and the US stock market fell into huge turmoil.
As of the close of May 12, the cumulative decline of Dow Jones Industrial Average in the year exceeded 12%, and the cumulative decline of S&P 500 in the year exceeded 17%;
Nasdaq in the cumulative declined by more than 27%, struggling in the bear market.
, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by more than 17%, and the probability of falling into a bear market is getting greater and greater.
All The total market value of US stock is latest approximately US$55.51 trillion, with a cumulative loss of approximately US$12.86 trillion (about RMB 87.32 trillion), and the loss exceeds the total market value of all A shares (about RMB 80.72 trillion).
Of course, this is the US stock market and has little to do with most Chinese economic individuals. However, every time the US stock market plummets, there will be no good things. It concentrates most of the wealth and wealth of the people of the United States, and even includes the US stock market crash, which includes pension funds (that is what we call China's coffin) and is worthy of high attention and follow-up analysis.
This article will review and sort out several important dynamics and signals in the global economic environment since May 2022, and explore the key trend secrets hidden behind important economic dynamics.
Asiders watch the excitement, while those who are experts see the tricks. Whether it is meaningful and valuable depends on their opinions.
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1
The weather vane of the shift in global financial value: The nine major technology giants in the US stock market all entered the bear market
On May 12, US time, after losing the throne of the world's first market value of listed companies, Apple fell 2.69% again, and the stock price was US$142.56 per share. Since 2022, Apple has fallen by 19.5%, and since January 4, Apple has fallen by more than 21.48%.
Since 2022, the stock price plummeted and the market value shrank have become the "main theme" of technology stocks listed in the United States, especially technology giants. Among them, Netflix fell the most, with its stock price plummeting by more than 71%, Nvidia and Meta followed closely with a drop of more than 40%, and Amazon , Tesla , TSMC, Microsoft , Google , Apple, etc. fell by more than or close to 20%.
On May 12, Apple's cumulative decline exceeded 20%, which means that All US technology giants have fallen into a technical bear market.
Technical bear market does not mean a real bear market, but it is the standard configuration for the start of every real bear market.
From the perspective of market value, the performance of US stocks this year is terrible. As of the close of May 12, the total market value of all US stocks was about US$55.51 trillion, with a cumulative loss of approximately US$12.86 trillion this year.
In other words, the market value of a big Chinese A has evaporated from the US stock market.
Of course, it can also be seen from the side that the US stock market, as the core asset of the United States, is of considerable scale.
In the round of adjustments to US stocks this year, the stock price of technology giants led by Apple has suffered a rare heavy blow. The plunge in
stocks is not only the ups and downs of the giants, but also the huge changes in the global economic environment.
US technology stocks correspond to high added value, high creation value, and high share (invisible monopoly).
The high valuation of of US technology stocks requires daily funds and market confidence to support it. The valuation plunges , and the stock price plummeted, especially the continuous market performance in the short term, actually has nothing to do with the company's performance and output value behind technology stocks.
The value logic and imagination direction of US stock investors have begun to undergo obvious changes. The profit growth logic behind the future US technology stocks has begun to question, which is so simple and crude.
One is the trend of anti-globalization in global consumption and demand caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; the other is the risk of turbulence in the global economy facing the US dollar interest rate hike cycle .
Apple phones are good, with a high global share, and IOS monopoly makes a fortune... But in reality, from the perspective of the consumer markets of China and India, which have the largest population base in the world, everyone is busy building an economy, stabilizing the economy, and survival is preferred. Apple is more popular, and high added value, and how can high profits be guaranteed and continued in a world where the economy is tightened and there is uncertainty?
Of course, there are also the unavoidable sanctions against Russia by the United States. American technology companies follow their behavior in a "political correct manner" and further increase the risk of anti-globalization. If technology companies do not have a globalized market, what else can they talk about high added value?
logic is that simple. Even if the Federal Reserve turns on interest rate hikes , the US dollar will strengthen, but it will not hold back the decline of US technology giants.
The world's smart money retreated from American technology companies without hesitation, technology is king, and the era of global value layout has shown a very obvious turning point signal.
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2
Signal of the change of the times: the world's highest market value company changed hands
With the soaring international oil prices and the plummeting US technology stocks, Saudi State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco surpassed the US technology giant Apple on Wednesday, becoming the world's highest market value company. According to the AFP 12 report, based on the closing price of in the stock market on Wednesday, Saudi Aramco's total market value is as high as US$2.42 trillion, while Apple's market value is US$2.37 trillion.
Previously, Saudi Aramco announced that the company's net income in 2021 reached US$110 billion, a surge of 124% over 2020 (US$49 billion). Since the beginning of this year, Saudi Aramco's stock price has risen by more than 27%, and its market value has risen by about US$530 billion. Saudi Aramco is currently the only non-U.S. company among the top ten companies in the world's market value.
Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco won the throne of the world's first market value of listed companies, announcing the end of the Internet technology stock era since 2008 and the world has returned to the energy era.
Image source: Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco's main product is fossil fuels that may have undergone tens of thousands of years of evolution. It is the most important power fuel in the world today. The company runs through all links from upstream exploration and mining to downstream oil refining sales, but these fuels will always dry up.
Apple's main products are electronic products equipped with the most advanced chips, representing the latest consumer electronic trends and service forms, as well as consumers' expectations for innovative technology consumer products, and human creativity has unlimited possibilities.
The current situation has made Saudi Aramco strong.
The high inflation in the United States, coupled with the insufficient supply of petrochemical fuel, has caused funds to flow to oil that has the same anti-inflation as gold (the higher the inflation, the higher the oil price), so oil prices continue to rise.
The interest rate hike caused profit-making funds to flow out of technology stocks with high valuations, which is the reason why Apple's momentum is weakening.
In short, this is the most realistic example of the fight between gods and mortals suffering. The key to determining the fate trends of Amei and Apple in the future is not in the hands of these two completely different companies.
The global situation is turbulent and its influence on the economy is evident.
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3
yen plummeted, SoftBank lost huge losses: is it essentially the recession of US dollar hegemony?
On May 12, SoftBank Group released its annual report for fiscal year 2021 (April 1, 2021-March 31, 2022). According to the financial report, 's net loss in fiscal year 2021 was about 1.7 trillion yen (approximately US$13.12 billion, 89.9 billion yuan), which is the largest annual loss in the company's 40-year history.
Image source: Internet
Simply put, it is the capital player under the rule of US dollar hegemony, Masayoshi Sun , it’s a loss. After the release of the
annual report, SoftBank Group Chairman Masayoshi Son said that due to the COVID-19 conflict with Russia and Ukraine, the world has begun to enter a "chaotic mode" (CHAOS). The cumulative number of infections in new crown exceeded 500 million, oil prices rose 38%, natural gas prices rose 117%, wheat prices rose 44%, consumer price index rose 12%, the Federal Reserve entered a cycle of interest rate hikes, the US dollar began to appreciate, and the Nasdaq index, dominated by technology stocks, fell 27%. All of these make him more cautious and will adopt more defensive strategies in the future.
In addition, Masayoshi Son also talked about the market's three concerns about SoftBank, including the market value of the shares held is falling, high debt and tight cash.
says nothing can change in the past 2021. SoftBank, which is wearing the shell of Japanese investment, actually stands behind the US Wall Street Capital, has suffered huge losses.
Japan, a country with a paper square agreement, received more than 20 years of national economic depression and sluggish manufacturing and technology. Behind this, few people say the essential things.
That represents the Japanese regime and core interest groups, and used the above price to exchange for some of the dividends of US dollar hegemony.
2022, From the perspective of the composition of the U.S. dollar index , the euro and the yen account for 58% and 14% respectively, with a total weight of about 70%. The euro and yen, which rank the top two in weight, are important driving forces for the recent strengthening of the US dollar.
Simply put, Japan gave up its domestic economy and people's livelihood in exchange for this 14% share of the US dollar index, which makes Japan, from an economic perspective, completely become a dependent country of the US dollar.
So the world knows that the United States is behind the investment in the overseas market. It is a small island country with military power that cannot be independent. It maintains people's livelihood with low standards at home (the size is also small), but it has made extensive investment layouts and financial arbitrage. This is Japan's economic model.
SoftBank Group is a typical representative of Japan's overseas investment.
SoftBank's huge losses actually correspond to the obvious decline of the hegemony of the US dollar in the world.
Imagine that the US dollar index has risen recently and the US dollar has strengthened. Does the exchange rate of the euro and yen have fallen?
On the one hand, the dollar hegemony itself is difficult to maintain, and the return of interest rate hikes to curb inflation;
On the other hand, the damage to the Japanese yen overseas investment indicates that the influence of the dollar is declining.
Even if you follow me, your interests are related, you can't even care about it. Isn't this an obvious signal of the decline of the hegemony of the US dollar?
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4
at the end:
How should China be prepared to face and welcome this tide of violent global financial and economic turmoil?
It is worth noting that the US stock market in the United States, including Japan's overseas capital, truly reflects the current situation where the economy of the United States has major risks and recession signals. The United States is still unstoppable:
ASEAN summit from 212 to 13, ASEAN summit from 12, 12th, 12th, 2nd European Union summit, and 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 20th of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd of the Asia tour.
and a half hours, US$150 million.
This is the "bread" provided by US President Biden to the "bread" of ASEAN countries that have come from afar. Just two days ago, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $40 billion aid bill to Ukraine.
Is this what I want to give the beggar? Supporting Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars is as refreshing as possible. Why do you find it so easy to find it when you arrive in Southeast Asia?
CapitalismLand of the lighthouse, city on the mountain of free will, do you want shameless?
There is no way, the US government is also financially nervous, there is not enough big cake, so let’s make up for it? It would be fine if
is not done, but it is embarrassing if it is done, right?
But even so it is difficult to get too tight, it means that the United States has never forgotten its ultimate rival China and has not forgotten to cause trouble for China.
This is very important to the United States. Even if Russia and Ukraine are in chaos, they will take time to strengthen their intimacy with ASEAN.
Even if it is...beggar treatment? Biden distributes $150 million in red envelopes to ASEAN countries, which is not a big deal, because China has long promised to provide $1.5 billion in development assistance to ASEAN in the next three years.
But this signal is not simple. How can American capital's money be so easy to get?
All signals are actually pointing to the impact of a new round of violent global financial and economic turmoil.
China faces external risks and the challenges of global financial turmoil, actually has a clear response strategy:
First, the key to response is to make every effort to stabilize domestic demand. This is the most valuable experience provided by Russia: as long as the domestic stability and survival is worry-free, all economic shocks and financial attacks will have no effect. In 2022, the strongest currency is Russian ruble .
Second, fiscal policy will continue to accelerate and accelerate its implementation, but there is no possibility of easy relaxation in key interest rates and capital controls.
Third, preparations for war and famine have actually begun.
Finally, there are foreign exchange controls and capital controls that will inevitably tighten.
Overall, China's strategic thinking is very clear, that is, prepare in advance, use stillness to prevent work, and wait for work with leisure. Although
is relatively passive, but the enemy does not move. The United States takes action and we should act until the United States cannot hold on to the major risks of the economy.
This is the key strategic defensive stage in which China will achieve its true rise in the future and determine the future direction of the world.
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(According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear suggestions on property purchase, investment, etc., and you can bear the risk of entering the market at your own risk.)
or above text, from @Panda Beibei Little Cute
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