Wang Yiwei/text On April 16, Japanese Prime Minister Suka Yoshihide , who visited the United States, and US President Biden , issued a joint summit statement, which mentioned: "We understand the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. (We emphasize the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues).
This is another statement made by the U.S. and Japan after 52 years since 1969, which is an unmistakable interference in China's internal affairs. Especially Japan, after 52 years of silence, openly stood up to help the United States. Such a statement is regarded as a major event by the media at home and abroad. Some experts and scholars believe that the US and Japan's move is equivalent to showing their trump card. If one day the mainland uses force to achieve unification, the US and Japan will most likely work together to defend Taiwan.
things are not that serious.
52 years have passed, and the times have changed, and the world has become different. Today's China is no longer the China of the past, and today's America and Japan are not the United States and Japan of the past. 52 years ago, facing a situation where the country has not yet been unified, facing a strong United States and a rich Japan, the mainland side has the will but lacks strength; 52 years later, the role has changed. Faced with the rising unified offensive of the mainland, the United States and Japan want to help defend Taiwan, but they have the will but lack strength, and they are not reasonable.
first analyze the problem of being willing.
In the relationship between the mainland, Taiwan, the United States and Japan, the so-called issue of peace and war is a false proposition. The essence of this issue is that the United States and Japan simply do not want to see China's unification. The United States and Japan, including the Taiwan authorities, have never contributed to peace in the Taiwan Strait. Instead, they have been actively preparing for possible future wars.
especially mentioned the Taiwan authorities. In 1991, the Taiwan authorities formulated the National Unification Program, posing as a stance to pursue the peaceful reunification of and . However, since the Chen Shui-bian administration "cease to apply" the National Unification Program in 2006, Ma Ying-jeou has not restored the National Unification Program for eight years in power, let alone the current Tsai Ing-wen administration.
This is how the powder barrels in the Taiwan Strait area are piled up.
As for the public opinion in these four places, on the mainland, public opinion is gradually showing signs of impatientness, but the official tone is still peaceful reunification, and the vast majority of experts and scholars also advocate that peace should not be given up easily until the last moment; on the one hand, Taiwan is afraid that the mainland will come over, and on the other hand, it is hoped that the US military will assist in defense. The mainstream public opinion believes that the United States cannot ignore Taiwan;
The public opinion of the United States and Japan is eager to try while watching the fun and ready to intervene at any time. On the United States, the latest survey by the Chicago Global Affairs Council shows that if the mainland unifies Taiwan with force, 40% of Americans support the United States in sending troops to help defend Taiwan. On the Japanese side, after the United States and Japan issued a joint statement mentioning Taiwan, Japanese media were collectively excited. Japanese scholar Kogasawara recently posted newspaper pages of Japanese media such as " Yomiuri Shimbun ", "Sankei Shimbun", " Asahi Shimbun ", " Daily News " on social media, saying that "the headlines of Japanese newspapers are all 'Taiwan'", "I have never seen Taiwan occupy such a large area", and "showing the importance of the joint statement between Japan and the United States that includes Taiwan."
The above information shows that in the face of possible military unification by the mainland, the United States, Japan, and Taiwan have been mentally prepared to fight a big battle with the People's Liberation Army. According to Su Zhenchang, the head of Taiwan’s administrative department, even if he takes a broom, he has to work with the People’s Liberation Army that attacked Taiwan to the end.
But in fact, in terms of strength comparison, it is another matter.
The comparison of military strength is the most important part of the competition. In this regard, there is a lot of information and professional judgments about the composition and comparison of the power of the People's Liberation Army, the US Army, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, and the Taiwan Army in the Taiwan Strait region. The author will not repeat it. Overall, in the Taiwan Strait, the People's Liberation Army has strong regional denial capabilities, which is enough to crush the Taiwan military and enable the United States and Japan to act cautiously in the use of military power.
What the author wants to explain is that in addition to the comparison of military power, the economic and trade relations between them have a great influence on eliminating the US and Japan's impulse to participate in the war. Because if a war of unification in the Taiwan Strait occurs in the future, Taiwan will be the battlefield. For the Japanese people, that is thousands of miles away. For the American people, it is even more distant. The drastic changes in economic and trade relations affect people's livelihood and life, which is the vital interest.
So, what is the current situation of Sino-US economic and trade relations and Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations?
China-US economic and trade relations: Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13 showed that the United States is China's third largest trading partner after ASEAN and EU . Sino-US trade grew strongly at the beginning of the year, and China's acquisition surplus was quite considerable. Specifically, from January to March this year, the import and export trade volume between China and the United States was US$165.728 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.1%. Among them, China exported US$119.183 billion to the United States, imported US$46.545 billion, and China recorded a surplus of US$72.638 billion.
China-Japan economic and trade relations: On April 19, the Japanese Ministry of Finance released a quick report on trade statistics for 2020 (April 2020 to the end of March 2021). The quick report shows that Japan's exports to China account for 22.9%, exceeding 20% for the first time, surpassing exports to the United States, setting a 10-year high. Specifically, Japan's exports in 2020 were 694.873 billion yen, and its exports to China were 158.996 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Among the 36 countries and regions counted by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, only China and Switzerland grew. In terms of imports, China's share increased from 22.9% in 2019 to 27% in 2020, which was also a record high.
In the context of this close economic and trade relations between China and the United States and China, once something happens in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States and Japan act as peacemakers or rush into it? It really needs to think twice.
Finally talk about the reasoning problem. This aspect is no longer developed. Both the United States and Japan recognize the one-China principle . Based on this alone, their interference in China's unification lacks the minimum legal basis.
htmlOn April 20, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who returned from his visit to the United States, reported on his achievements in the visit to the United States in Congress. Regarding the mention of Taiwan in the US-Japan joint statement, he said: "We have not made any promises for any sudden military actions around Taiwan."Suga Yoshihide's statement was equivalent to pouring a bucket of cold water on the excited and excited Japanese media. Compared with the public opinion trend that travels around the world, politicians are still relatively rational.
One of the most important military news in the past few days is the Liaoning aircraft carrier formation. The every move of this formation, including the three US ships , which followed behind this formation, has repeatedly become the focus of major media attention in the world, and satellite images have also appeared online.
htmlOn April 21, mainland official media released a short message, less than 100 words. The full text of the news is as follows: "On the eve of the 72nd anniversary of the founding of People's Navy , the Liaoning aircraft carrier formation crossed the first island chain and conducted routine training in the waters around Taiwan to test the effectiveness of the troops' training and temper the ability to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests."As the saying goes, the 30-year Army, the 50-year Air Force, and the 100-year Navy. The Chinese Navy has had two aircraft carrier formations in just 72 years. It is really not easy.
Tomorrow (April 23) is Navy Day . Happy birthday to the People's Navy!
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