On August 21, Yueyang, Hunan became the first city to issue a "decline order". Someone said: "I was happy when I heard the limit order, but when I heard the limit order, I couldn't let go."

"House to live in, not speculation" has been deeply rooted in people's hearts, and the balance of the real estate market is also tilting.

Compared with first-tier cities to upgrade the regulation to "reduce the fever" of the real estate market, some third- and fourth-tier cities have begun to welcome "reverse" regulation.

htmlOn August 21, Yueyang, Hunan became the first city to issue a "decline order". After the "reduction limit" of

was opened, regulation in various cities has also been "on the shelves".

At the beginning of the second half of the year, the real estate market seemed to have made a sharp turn like a roller coaster.

Someone said: "I was happy when I heard the limit increase , but when I heard the limit decrease till I couldn't let go."

House prices are like the stock market and also require confidence to support it.

The "restriction order" destroys everyone's confidence in houses and house prices.

At the same time, it accelerates the market's panic about houses and further promotes the decline in housing prices.

When everyone thinks it will fall, it will really fall.

. House prices can cover up many problems when they rise. Once they fall, all the problems will be exposed.

Although the original meaning of "restriction order" is good, it can treat the symptoms but not the root cause.

The entire real estate market needs to be saved urgently.

htmlOn August 31, Changchun City had 7 major policies implemented.

is different from the "restricted decline" rescue in cities such as Yueyang , Guilin , Shenyang, Kunming, Tangshan , etc., Changchun's rescue plan is even more naked.

. Reasonably control the pace of supply of residential land
2. Relieve the financial pressure of development enterprises
3. Accelerate the construction of public service facilities
4. Encourage talents and farmers to buy houses
5. Allow the use of provident fund combination loans
6. Increase efforts to sell non-residential sales
7. Standardize market order

. Under these 7 big moves, there are 3 highlights:

① Reasonably control the rhythm of residential land supply

This move alleviates two problems.

⑴Use land supply to regulate the housing supply and demand structure of Changchun City and alleviate the downward trend of housing prices in Changchun.

In fact, Changchun's housing prices have fallen for six consecutive weeks, and the heat of Changchun's real estate market is also continuing to decline.

Some time ago, Changchun released the possibility that the registration price of new houses must not be lower than 90%, which made everyone know that the housing prices in Changchun may fall by 10%.

In a year, Changchun has entered a cold winter.

⑵ Use land supply to alleviate the embarrassing situation in the Changchun land market.

What awkward situation?

Land failed to sell seriously.

This year, Changchun launched 51 residential land for the first time, and finally 38 residential land were sold, 2 failed to sell , and 11 were terminated, with a failure rate of up to 25%.

Moreover, 38 residential land transactions were sold, 32 were sold at the lowest price, and only 6 were sold at the premium, with an average premium rate of only 3%.

For the second centralized land supply, 8 plots of land were terminated due to no quotation.

This is the current situation of the Changchun real estate market, it is too cold.

From the land market to the housing prices, it is very cold.

This is also the reason why Changchun wanted to start the big move to save the market.

② Relieve the financial pressure of development enterprises

In recent years, the country has gradually tightened bank credit, and the three red lines have put a strong tightening curse on domestic lending.

The main contradiction in my country's real estate is as follows:

The short-term contradiction in the current real estate industry lies in the contradiction between real estate companies' urgency to raise funds and the state's all-round organization of funds into real estate.

The medium-term contradiction in the current real estate industry lies in the contradiction between the real estate industry and the strategy of slowing down in China's economic development, industrial transformation and upgrading and expanding domestic demand.

The long-term contradiction in the current real estate industry lies in the contradiction between the aging population and the decline in the remaining population, resulting in insufficient buyers, resulting in no source of support for real estate development.

Real estate companies are struggling under such contradictions. It is rare for Changchun to accompany real estate companies to overcome difficulties.

③Encourage talents and farmers to buy houses

This shows that Changchun is trying to stimulate market vitality.

, and use 90 square meters as the standard. In principle, talents with college degree or above or above described in the document can receive a subsidy of 4,500 yuan if they purchase a house; farmers can receive a subsidy of 7,200 yuan if they buy a house of 90 square meters.

There is an interesting point here. While Changchun encourages real estate companies to discount, it also limits the discount intensity - it must not be lower than 85% of the registered price.

This means telling real estate companies that you can get a maximum of 25% discount and a maximum discount of 15%.

Then if you add a discount of up to 15%, the subsidy plus discount can reach more than tens of thousands of yuan.

. The example of Changchun City stopping "template sales" a while ago has shown the attitude of Changchun Municipal Government - it can be reduced, but it cannot be reduced too ruthlessly. The reason why

is that it is worried that developers will discount too much and lead to a chaotic rhythm, which will cause a sharp rise in housing prices in Changchun and backfire.

And on September 13 this year, Changchun City announced the most popular housing subsidy and consumption coupon rules in the new housing market policy at the end of August.

marked the application conditions, house purchase time, subsidy standards, consumption coupon usage rules, etc. There is no change in the subsidy standard for

, and the amount of housing purchase vouchers is divided into automobile vouchers and home appliance vouchers. Only one of them can be selected and only one is allowed to receive.

The total amount of house purchase consumption coupons is 50 million yuan, and 5,000 copies are distributed, each of which is worth 10,000 yuan. Among them, 500 automobile consumption coupons and 4,500 home appliance consumption coupons are limited in the number of consumption coupons. The first is obtained and will be issued as soon as it is issued.

I have to say that the announcement of these 7 new policies in Changchun plus housing subsidies and consumption coupons is indeed a real desire to save the Changchun real estate market.

But for local residents and foreign talents, it is better to "re-fire" the property market than to inflated housing prices?

We say that building a nest will attract phoenixes, and those with constant property will have perseverance. The premise of all this is to make them feel at ease about buying a house first.

So, for the new Changchun real estate market policy, let’s look at the effect and wait for public opinion.

Let time speak, let the people speak, and let the last facts speak.

No matter what the result of the Changchun real estate market, the Changchun government has shown a determination: to live and die with the Changchun real estate market.

But in contrast, Harbin's determination still needs to be strengthened.

htmlOn September 9, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Songbei District issued the "Notice on Stabilizing the Real Estate Market Related Situations".

In the face of the downward state of the real estate market, the Harbin government's choice of the property market stability maintenance method is no different from the "decline order".

The contradiction is that last year, the government was still encouraging real estate companies to lower prices and promote promotions.

In November 2020, Harbin City issued the "Notice on Related Policies to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Our City during the Epidemic", and introduced fourteen real estate support measures.

When the "Fourteen entries" in Harbin came out, someone shouted: "Comrades, here we come. This cold air will sweep the entire land of China from north to south!"

However, the facts have proved that so far, Harbin may really be the only place in the country where the government encourages real estate companies to lower prices to protect the real estate market.

Because of the Harbin market, there is a serious oversupply. The

policy was introduced, with the purpose of being good, but long-term needs were ignored. How long is

?

Comrades, "Guide and encouragement" is just a slogan, not a practical action.

The real dry goods in the "Notice" can really have an impact on the market are Articles 6, 9 and 10.

6. Support employees who pay provident fund in other places to apply for provident fund loan when buying a house in Harbin.

. Flexible employment personnel can apply for a loan by depositing provident fund for six months in a row.

0. Support Harbin Bank and other commercial banks and financial institutions, and provide policy support for residential apartment products and enjoy residential mortgage loans.

This is a real policy to encourage house buying and promote market consumption.

In addition to this, the entire "Fourteen Regulations" seem to be counting on one way - psychological expectations.

However, if the policy follows the path of "psychological expectations", it will deviate from the "reality" track.

Because in the long run, "psychological expectations" have no effect.

What determines the housing price trend is the real housing needs such as getting married and having children, not psychological expectations.

Psychological expectations only affect the time distribution of purchases and do not affect the total purchase amount.

"Four entries" must have effect in terms of effect.

can promote orders from customers with urgent needs in the short term, but in the long run, the impact is immeasurable.

It is not an exaggeration to say that "the fourteen items" are "killing the chicken to get the eggs".

The real estate market will ultimately focus on harmony, and the meaning of price reduction and promotion is not positive.

is called "a pioneer", but it implies the risk of real estate "revolution".

In the future, we are still looking forward to long-term policies, and small profits are not desirable.

Simply summarize: Now is the bottom of the policy, and it is unrealistic to introduce more stringent regulatory policies in the future. When will

be the bottom of the market?

The bottom of the market obviously has a certain lag.

When the positive policy appears, it may be the time when the Harbin market bottoms out and rebounds.

As the pillar industry of local governments, real estate will inevitably touch the sensitive "heart" of the local government.

So it is not an exaggeration to say that the two are "one prosper and one loses together", and one loses together".

"Huainanzi·Bian Luxury Training" once said: "A thousand people are united and will get the strength of a thousand people; a thousand people are different and will have no use of a single person." The same applies to the government and the real estate market.

Original manuscripts in Longjiang Real Estate Market are prohibited from reprinting without authorization, otherwise the consequences will be borne by yourself!