International crude oil closed down, and the future is expected to predict that oil prices may rise slightly!
WTI November crude oil futures closed down $3.50, down 3.93%, at $85.61 per barrel.
Brent December crude oil futures closed down $2.94, down 3.11%, at $91.63 per barrel.
product | area | 1 October 13 | 1 October 13 | 1 October 13 | 1 October 14th | rating rate |
WTI | international | 89.11 | 85.61 | -3.93% | ||
Brent | International | 94.57 | 91.63 | -3.11% |
Market analysis: Worries about global economy landslide and slowing demand growth once again overshadowed concerns about tight supply, international oil prices plummeted, the increase in the number of oil drilling in the United States and the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate also suppressed the atmosphere of the oil market. However, the sharp decline in distillate oil inventories in the United States supports oil prices, and as winter approaches, demand for heating oil is expected to continue to rise. In addition, OPEC+ is still reducing production to restrict the supply side. Oil prices are expected to rise today.
Oil market focus
1, strengthening the US dollar exchange rate and increasing oil drilling platforms to suppress the atmosphere of the oil market. on Friday, index rose about 0.8%. The dollar exchange rate enhancement reduces the demand for oil futures , which is denominated in USD, making commodities denominated in USD more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The U.S. core inflation index hit its biggest annual growth in 40 years, reinforcing the view that interest rates will remain high and accompany the risk of a global recession. The next decision to adjust interest rates in the United States will be made on November 1-2. The number of active oil and natural gas drilling platforms in the United States will increase for the fourth time in five weeks. The number of oil and gas drilling platforms active in the United States has increased for the fourth time in five weeks. Data released by General Electric's oil field service agency , Baker Hughes showed that in the week ended October 14, the number of oil wells drilled online in the United States was 610, the highest since March 2020, an increase of 8 from the previous week; an increase of 165 from the same period last year. The report shows that the Ardmore Woodford Basin has increased by 1; the Arkoma Woodford Basin has decreased by 2; the Eagle Ford Basin in , Texas, , Texas, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2
Baker Hughes data also showed that the number of natural gas drilling rigs in the United States during the same period was 157, the lowest level since July, one less than the previous week; 59 more than the same period last year. Among them, there are a total of 752 land oil and gas platforms in the United States, an increase of 6 from the previous week; an increase of 223 from the same period last year. There are a total of 769 oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States, the highest since March 2020, an increase of 7 from the previous week; an increase of 226 from the same period last year.
3, U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the growth rate of U.S. oil demand and output in the rest of this year and in 2023 is expected to be slower than previously expected. The average daily output of U.S. crude oil is expected to be 11.7 million barrels in 2022. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that in the four weeks ending October 7, 2022, the total demand for refined oil in the United States was 19.952 million barrels per day, 3.8% lower than the same period last year; the average daily demand for automotive gasoline was 8.722 million barrels per day, 5.5% lower than the same period last year; the average daily demand for distillate oil was 4.015 million barrels per day, 3.8% lower than the same period last year; the average daily demand for kerosene aircraft fuel was 3.4% higher than the same period last year.In a single weekly demand, the total U.S. oil demand averaged 19.271 million barrels per day, 1.56 million barrels lower than the previous week; of which U.S. gasoline daily demand was 8.276 million barrels, 1.189 million barrels lower than the previous week;
core logic: the market's concerns about the economy and demand outlook have increased, overshadowed the concerns about tightening supply, and international oil prices fell.
NYMEX crude oil contract closed at US$85.61 per barrel, down 3.93%, higher than the average daily volatility this month.
ICE Brent Oil December contract closed at $91.63 per barrel, down 3.11%, higher than the average daily volatility this month.
The main factors influencing the oil market:
1. Major institutions are bearish on the economy and demand prospects, and OPEC, EIA and IEA have successively lowered their demand forecasts for 2023. (Badminant)
2. U.S. distillate oil inventories fell by 4.853 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels, the lowest level since May. As winter approaches, heating oil demand is expected to rise. (Favorite)
3. The Saudi Foreign Ministry expressed its disagreement with the United States' criticism of production cuts, emphasizing that production cuts are purely due to economic background considerations. (Favorite)
oil market expectations
1, IMF, OPEC and IEA are all bearish on future economic and demand expectations.
2, The probability of the Federal Reserve 11 hike rate 75 basis points has exceeded 96%.
3. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has not deteriorated or escalated further. The deadlock in negotiations between
4 and Iran's nuclear issue continues, and the United States says it is not close to reaching an agreement.
core logic: positive news on the supply side has temporarily stopped, negative pressure on the demand side has continued, and the pressure on international oil prices has not changed.
Oil market outlook: From the supply side of , the positive impact of OPEC+ production cuts has gradually dissipated, and geopolitical risks have not yet escalated yet, and the hidden worries about European energy supply have not yet been amplified, and the supply side is relatively calm. On the demand side, major institutions such as the IMF are bearish on the economic and demand prospects, and the market's concerns about economic demand have not diminished. Overall, it is expected that the price of crude oil in may have room for decline this week.
