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.4S store is a franchise/first-level dealer. Authorized. Get goods from the manufacturer.
. A second-level dealer represented by the comprehensive store. is not authorized. In some counties or regions with relatively small markets, it is not suitable for new 4S stores with excessive cost, and comprehensive stores have emerged. Get goods from 4S stores; dealers will also transfer goods to each other.
.Automotive hypermarket represented by Asia City (Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Trading Market). special models that cannot be bought in domestic 4S stores such as American-regulated cars - entering the country from port cities such as Tianjin and Dalian. Help 4S stores to reverse the situation: sell the car to Asia to avoid manufacturer discounts. Sell some car models that cannot be sold to foreign consumers to foreign consumers.
Online channel : Autohome, Yiche, Alibaba Auto, and JD Auto have all tried new car e-commerce, but only Autohome and Yiche continue to carry out. New car e-commerce has gone through a series of explorations, and in the end, only C mode can temporarily pass
(*Mode B part refers to "How to Make Money for Auto E-commerce", He Mingke Zhihu column)
A. Completely bypass offline. pure e-commerce model.
B. Offline service, online transaction
mode1
- Expected: B2C platform - manufacturer opens flagship store
- Actual: small transaction volume, marketing significance is greater than sales significance
- Example: Alibaba Auto, JD Auto
mode2
- Expected: Download car purchase coupons online, purchase
- Actual: The website cannot lock in car models and prices, and customers are interested in model A offline and choose B model
- Example: Yiche Special Sales, Autohome "Car Mall"
mode3
- Expected: C2B - Consumers release demand - 4S store bidding - Car purchase consultant group to see cars for consumers - group purchase price to buy cars - platform draws service fees from 4S stores in proportion
- In fact: Group purchase price directly to 4S stores for car purchase prices; 4S stores attract consumers at low prices, and then charge
through other names
- Example: Yiche "Hui Car Buy" and Tuanche.com
mode 4
- Expected: B2C direct sales - directly take cars from manufacturers, and sell
at a price
- In fact: Online only gets unsold cars and inventory cars; online price = offline price
- Example: Yiche special sale, Autohome "car mall"
mode 5
- Expectation: The manufacturer opens an online store by itself
- In fact: It is just to divert traffic to its own 4S store
- Example: SAIC "Chexiang.com"
C. Offline transactions, online payment. The platform relies entirely on dealers and cooperates with sales to launch financial services such as insurance and installment.
Summary: From A to C, the control of the platform is reduced in turn.
A New car sales cannot bypass offline
B e-commerce offline services and online transactions, which cannot work on cars
lacks the necessary conditions - online transactions cannot bring customers the benefits of low prices and good goods.
First of all, the price - the price is difficult to be lower than that of 4S stores. The business model of the 4S store is: selling cars at a cost price or discount, binding consumers (you need to buy insurance, insurance and maintenance bonds) and making money through subsequent maintenance; there will be rebates from manufacturers to reach a certain sales volume.
Secondly, the channel for picking up goods - it is difficult to get high-quality supply from manufacturers . Auto sales rely on offline services, and manufacturers have close ties with 4S stores. For manufacturers, they are more willing to give them to 4S stores at the same price.
Other issues —E-commerce platforms need to solve the problem of picking up goods and inventory, and bear the risk of unsalable sales. pick up and stock. Ordinary goods are generally in the country and are convenient to circulation. Automobile involves foreign business and is inconvenient to circulation.
(Note: Dealers' new car business is basically losing money. The official data is 20-30% loss, but it may actually be 70%. Others are the same. Only the top few can make a profit. The first place Guanghui has a rebate due to large volume, and the new car sales business has a profit margin of 4%)
Ch offline transactions and online payment models, profits are not expected
mode : Work closely with dealers, and cooperate with insurance sales, car loans and other businesses during transactions.
has no control over transactions at all.
First of all, you cannot directly obtain income from car sales. cannot obtain sales commissions, and may also have to pay cooperation fees to dealers.
Secondly, financial business is uncontrollable. Insurance: The insurance commission earned can only be deducted from the insurance salesperson’s expenses. There are market opportunities for car loans - 70% of cars in the United States are sold through finance, but risk control is difficult - there is no control over transactions at all, leaving the scene, and only risk control can be carried out from the personal dimension.
. There is no good case for domestic and foreign new car e-commerce.
domestic:
Ali and JD.com : gave up automobile e-commerce business and said it was turning to automobile finance.
AutoHome: Tried many times, latest, closely contact dealers, cooperate with large dealers such as Guanghui, and link with dealer systems to realize real-time inventory inquiry.
EasyChe : Multi-round attempts, latest, close contact with dealers, and establish offline services; build self-built offline call centers; form a "auto broker" consulting team; provide accompanying test drives, providing professional services such as loans, insurance, and maintenance. It was launched in May 2015, and 4,000 people have been there in August; it has reached a strategic cooperation with the Hunan Branch of Pacific Property Insurance to connect and transform nearly 1,200 auto insurance brokers into auto brokers; it will also carry out such cooperation with major auto insurance groups and related companies.
United States:
The leader in automobile e-commerce True Car: The valuation once reached US$2 billion, and later rumors of data fraud were reported, AutoNation separated, and its market value shrank back to US$500 million. None of the other is purely engaged in e-commerce transactions: AutoNation (maximum 4S), Autobytel (maximum sales lead), CarMax (maximum used car chain), AutoZone (maximum auto parts chain), Tesla (automan manufacturing, direct sales).
In fact, in China, the degree of bundling between car dealers and manufacturers is deeper, and the sales system and after-sales maintenance system are more closely related (in the United States, the 4S store has a strong position, and the sales and after-sales system are relatively independent). The above model may not even have the opportunity to produce small-cap e-commerce companies like True Car.
has its problems with the existing offline sales channels. This is the only opportunity that new car e-commerce can see at present.
The future of new car e-commerce - self-built offline channels. The Internet is just a tool for information circulation and user ID locking, not a channel for traffic acquisition.
offline sales channels need to be improved . The existing offline channel structure is unreasonable, which is reflected in the large sales outlets and the inefficient area utilization - Reason: The manufacturer has requirements for dealers to build stores; distributed in the suburbs - Reason: The place is expensive.
A more reasonable channel structure should be a chain system that separates small services and large repairs - decentralized small stores (customer contact: sales, services, general maintenance) + large suburban factories (inventory, large repair).
Refer to Japanese (very similar to the situation in China: manufacturer-led distribution and after-sales system; high population density).
. Location : Japan-residential area, commercial area, subway station, high-speed rail station, street vs. China-suburb.
. Store density : about 10 times that of China, in the form of sales center (main store) + stores (branch). Take Toyota dealers as an example: 5,000 stores, 33 sales centers, and a ratio of 150:1.
. Single store size : Japan-300 square meters VS China-3,000-5,000 square meters (there is another small reason for small stores, which is mainly light vehicles and covers a small area)
New car e-commerce opportunity - drive from "che and family".
boldly speculates that Li Xiang's car and family's fundamental purpose is not to build cars. is to build , a new channel system of . Electric cars are just a cover and will not conflict with current customers and future competitors - dealers too early; in addition, electric car dealers are not bound by manufacturers like ordinary car dealers.
so that you can have offline service , just like dealers, and even better, and get cooperation opportunities with manufacturers.
Profits and value points come from : 1. Increase efficiency of the dealer system. 2. Subsequent financial, insurance, repair, used cars, rental and other businesses.
Appendix : Channel coverage of the manufacturer system
At present, : 100% coverage of first- and second-tier cities.
coverage rate , first- and second-tier cities: all major automobile manufacturers have reached 100%. Fifth-tier cities: Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Nissan, two major sales players with annual sales of over one million vehicles, only reached 54.1% and 48.9%.
The number of outlets in cities accounts for : 16% in first-tier cities, 24% in second-tier cities, 30% in third-tier cities, 21% in fourth-tier cities, and 9% in fifth-tier cities.
Total number of outlets is 24,000 : ranks 660 in Beijing, 580 in Shanghai, 370 in Chengdu, 370 in Suzhou, and 340 in Guangzhou.
City network density - average number of urban outlets (=number of urban networks in grades/number of cities covered by grades): first-tier cities 10-20, second- and third-tier cities ~5, fourth-tier cities ~3, fifth- and sixth-tier cities ~1.
Next stage : Channel sinking.
Mercedes-Benz: This year, the first "exhibition hall + quick repair" model is launched - it is expanded to fourth- and fifth-tier cities through the exhibition hall.
Chevrolet: 100% coverage of more remote prefecture-level cities in 2017.
(Note: The proportion of urban outlets and urban network density are both 13 years of data, from China Automobile News; statistics are all authorized, and the cumulative number of authorized + unauthorized dealers is 90,000, released by the Ministry of Commerce 2015)
Part 2
Used car e-commerce is fragmented, and we are optimistic about the light platform and heavy self-operated
Used cars and new cars are essentially different
Used cars and new cars
Independent vehicle disposal rights —self-pricing. Used car owners have independent vehicle disposal rights , and there is no complex relationship like dealers (sellers) and manufacturers (suppliers).
Non-standard product —Standard product conversion + SKU more. Used cars are non-standard , and needs to be tested through to become the market-acceptable standard . To some extent, the non-standard increase of SKU in , which makes it difficult for to match the supply and demand of - the products are repeatedly circulated in in the market.
C-end seller —Not effective market behavior. The seller is on the C-end, and has great uncertainty - multiple orders have led to low transaction rates. Information opaque: sales information is unclear; product information is unclear - reduce transaction efficiency.
Used car circulation: There are many parties involved, different roles, and there are many intermediate links
The point you should pay attention to is:
Role - whether to use and change the vehicle. C end and some B ends (dealers, car rental dealers) will use and change the vehicle. Some B-end (car collectors, hypermarkets, and car sellers) will not use or change the vehicle, but are just pure circulation.
circulation link. There may be more layers B in the middle of . B often converts each other between buyers and sellers. The vehicle may fall back and forth between B.
car sources are mainly in the hands of C; the valuation link is seriously lacking, and the market is chaotic
- The demand for car rental is not yet obvious, and car rental companies have limited vehicle ownership .
Domestic: The number of cars owned by 160 million, of which the number of car rental companies is estimated to be only 400,000, which is negligible.
United States: 1/3 of the new cars are sold to car rental companies. It is estimated that second-hand cars are sold, and car rental companies account for 1/3.
- Lack of intermediate valuation link .
Domestic: C-end has no reasonable valuation ability for vehicles, 2C tends to trade with acquaintances, and 2B is handed over to the B-end to price.
Foreign: The third-party valuation system is sound, 2C is a large number of transactions by strangers, and 2B has a reference price.
(Data source: Public information sorting)
(Note: The only data in domestic used car trading channels is: 77% through intermediaries, 23% are in individuals. Considering that some intermediary transactions are mixed with individuals, the actual situation may be that 85% through intermediaries, and 15% are in individuals)
In summary, it is a trend to improve the third-party valuation system and simply reseller being replaced by
. Refer to the United States: The market has multiple sets of testing standards, but the valuation results are not much different and they are recognized by each other. Refer to Japan: There are multiple sets of testing standards in the market, but the valuation results are not much different and they are recognized by each other.
Car collectors, car sellers, and hypermarkets were replaced. The value of vehicle reselling is limited.
Dealers and car rental dealers cannot be replaced by —used cars are a natural branch under their own business system.
We believe that the opportunities of Internet companies are in light platforms and focus on self-operated
1. Platform-type positioning is information disclosure. The more effective and efficient the information, the higher the value, the greater the value.
The more effective, the higher the efficiency, and the greater the value.
direct acquisition cost is low, but the value is limited; the value of the vehicle condition information is high, but the detection service cost is high. In the future, it is best to obtain vehicle condition information through data access (effective and comprehensive car purchase, maintenance, and insurance information). The information usage efficiency of
2B is higher than that of 2C because the B-side needs are clear and judgmental, and you can make purchasing decisions quickly.
is based on platform value and extends other revenue businesses. If the
platform can obtain sufficient stickiness through information display, it can extend other businesses based on this and obtain more revenue, such as finance.
A Information platform is essentially traffic reselling, and information acquisition efficiency is the key
Low-cost acquisition of effective information (authenticity, timeliness) is the key.
platform can only earn very thin advertising fees (lists) or lead fees (leads).
Market value depends on the traffic acquisition cost. traffic determines revenue - buying a car is a decision-making. Users tend to look at each platform. Several platforms will have higher traffic, and the revenue difference is not big. Operating costs determine profits - Autohome has a dealer scoring system that allows dealers to produce content spontaneously, greatly reducing operating costs; Yiche needs to spend a lot of money to purchase traffic from Baidu and other places, resulting in extremely high operating costs.
The most efficient way to circulation information is of course the more concentrated the better, that is, the only one-on-one situation is. The actual situation of depends on market games, but with the increase in traffic costs, the situation of coexistence of multiple platforms will become increasingly unsustainable.
(Note: Autohome leads' revenue comes from the 2015 financial annual report, and the number of clues is estimated based on the 2014 quantity; Autohome and Yiche's revenue-expenditure structure comes from the 2014 annual report data collection, because both companies have transformed in 2015 and their business changes are large)
B auction platform is a deeper information platform, the scale of information costs is not economical, and the market is fragmented
car condition information relies on manual testing, and the cost is difficult to reduce, and the scale effect is weak - market fragmentation. In addition to collecting commissions through services, the
auction platform will also have a part of the disposal business. In fact, it is a platform + self-operated model, but the proportion of self-operated (disposal business) is very small.
- The market is still fragmented, because the detection cost has not been reduced : Based on manual services - variable costs, uneconomical scale.
- Auction scenario is offline + online : the pure online mode is completely feasible, and the main offline function is not display (for the B-side, no display is required), but storage.
- Profit margins are not much different, and the trading volume basically determines the market value of . Example: COPART's revenue is US$1.1 billion, market value is US$4.8 billion, PE=24, PS=4.
(Data source: COPART Financial Annual Report 2015; Sina US Stocks)
C Professional services have market demand, but it is likely that the ROI of the to C side is not worth it at the moment
Professional services are currently the best to B, to C also needs the education market.
Third-party testing, Bangbubangshangshang, and C2C are essentially the same type: they do not retain vehicles, do not directly participate in transactions, and provide inspections.
- The profit model is not completely clear yet. Domestic used cars are still the seller's market, and charging sellers is not valid. The foreign second-hand system is relatively mature, and the test results are accepted by the market, and sellers are willing to pay for it; otherwise in China. Beepi didn't work either: performance growth is weak and profits may be slim - the valuation fell from $2 billion to $500 million at the end of 2015.
To C mode user education costs are too high, Bangbubangshang is a better transition and can make profits from dealers;
The current testing service is best to B first - typical case: Dasouche, last year, shifted from "virtual consignment" to B2B with service car dealers as the core.
2. Focus on self-operation through diversified business ecosystem to reduce system risks
- Ecological completeness affects risk resistance coefficient. Ecological Completeness: Dealer Car Rentals. However, car rental companies have already obtained high enough revenue in their main business (car use services), and used cars are just branches.
A dealers/class dealers either supplement other businesses or supplement liquidity
dealers use transaction business to supplement maintenance and financial services; used car chains rely on internal connections to supplement liquidity.
- Dealer: integrated new car sales, used car sales, parts repair, financial services and other businesses . New car sales and used car sales are the main business components, but parts repair and financial services are the main sources of profit.
- Used car chain: enhances liquidity and reduces the risk of unsalable sales - Because the system is large enough, the circulation between B2Bs will be transformed into internal circulation of the company. The vehicle supply information is unified, the information transmission chain is reduced, and the transactions in the form of purchasing agents are banned. CarMax's operating method is: the price is lower than the market price; offline stores are not vehicle displays, but testing standards displays, but overall value is still limited, and flexibility and efficiency may not be comparable to long-tail used car dealers.
(Data source: AutoNation Financial Annual Report 2015)
B New car sales cannot bypass offline
Car rental dealers are more feasible to make used cars, and using car platforms to make used cars is relatively large.
Car rental provider: 0 cost to obtain vehicle source and vehicle condition information, but insufficient customer sources - disposal efficiency needs to be improved.
car source depends on the market size of the car rental market. China's demand for car use is business vehicles, not transportation - Didi can't monopolize the market, and China Car Rental has room.
The dominant pattern is expected to be —The number of car ownership in China Car Rental is greater than the sum of 2-10th.
Domestic car rental companies are likely to develop better than foreign ones —Business vehicle service points can be more distributed in the city: more concentrated and reuse rate (foreign: leisure vehicles, service points are distributed in airports).
The second-hand car transaction of China Auto Rental in 2015 was a slight loss - insufficient customer sources and limited disposal efficiency. As sellers in the used car market lead the transfer to buyers, this disadvantage will become more and more obvious. Recent situation: Divide the used car business and invest in 20% of Dasouche's equity.
Car use platform : Sufficient customer sources, but insufficient vehicle sources and unclear vehicle conditions information - the span of making used cars is a bit large. The platform has no vehicle ownership; drivers do not necessarily choose to deal with vehicles on the platform first—there is no correlation between picking up the business and selling the car.
Summary : The core of the used car business is to improve efficiency and reduce system risks
If data access can be used to replace manual vehicle condition detection in the future, it will be a subversion of platform companies. The greatest value of the auction platform is to provide car condition information.
's offline service for B-end is unnecessary - no offline stores are needed.
There is enough value space worth doing this - the valuation/market value of several auction platforms: Manheim $10 billion, COPART $4.8 billion.
dealers are the most competitive role in the field of used car rental, but systematic control is extremely difficult. There must be no missing key businesses - the profit points and main business points come from different businesses.
The second-hand car business of car rental companies can be done, but not . Why yes: Car rental dealers have enough car sources - they do not need to obtain car books and have historical information on the car condition. Why no: The car rental business and used car disposal business are not closely related enough - new capabilities dimensions need to be filled.
To C's used car sales are best integrated with new car sales . The C-end requires offline services; offline services for new and used cars have a very high overlap.
