New Energy, as a representative of the growth of A shares , has been the focus of the market in recent years. Although the market has been repeated recently, new energy has now become a major investment direction comparable to real estate in the past decade.
On October 13, Guo Beibei, assistant director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department and senior index fund manager, and Wang Lei, chief analyst of new energy of Guosheng Securities, visited the live broadcast room of Pengpai News "Chief Connection" to bring the latest analysis outlook on hot issues such as the overall development of new energy vehicles, the development and certainty of energy storage on different routes, upstream raw material price trends, and investment paths.
Assistant Director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department of Huitianfu Fund, Senior Index Fund Manager, and Wang Lei (right), Chief Analyst of Power Equipment New Energy of Guosheng Securities,
Global New Energy Vehicles Penetration rate further increased
Regarding the current development status of new energy vehicles, Guobei said, "From a global perspective, the development stage of new energy vehicles is still in the early stage of growth. Last year, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 6.75 million, and increased by 108% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 8%. It is expected that global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 10.27 million units this year, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and the penetration rate is 13%. "
Guobei further pointed out that by region, China's new energy vehicle development trend is better than that of the United States and Europe. Last year, China's sales of new energy vehicles were about 3.4 million, an increase of 155% year-on-year, and the penetration rate has reached 13%. It is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will exceed 5.5 million units this year, and the penetration rate is expected to further increase.
Wang Lei is more optimistic about the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2022, and is expected to exceed 6.5 million units.
"At present, the dependence of new energy vehicles on subsidies has weakened and has entered a stage of market-driven development. On the one hand, the technology is relatively mature, the industrial chain is relatively complete, and the products are competitive. On the other hand, from a global and domestic perspective, the new energy vehicle industry is a general trend and there is still a lot of room for it. 2021 is the turning point of the development of the new energy vehicle industry. After passing the 10% penetration rate threshold, the subsequent further development will be very fast." Wang Lei said.
Purchase tax Extension of the exemption period will smooth the subsidy reduction and affect the policy of
On the policy side, the policy of exemption for the purchase tax for new energy vehicles has been postponed for the third time and will be extended until the end of 2023.
In this regard, Wang Lei said that 2022 is the last year for the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles. The extension of the purchase tax exemption period is expected to smooth the impact of subsidies for subsidies. Based on the average selling price of 150,000 yuan to 160,000 yuan for new energy passenger cars last year, if the purchase tax subsidy is extended, consumers can save an average of 13,000 to 14,000 yuan.
"It should be pointed out at the same time that as the development of domestic new energy vehicles gradually weakens subsidy dependence and enters the stage of market-oriented development. Overall, the impact of subsidy decline is limited." Wang Lei pointed out.
Wang Lei further pointed out that in the future, with the decline in material prices and the advancement of material systems, such as the development of range, fast charging, and the increase in vehicle production, the prices of new energy vehicles still have room for decline, and it is expected to make up for some of the differences in the decline in subsidies.
Guo Beibei said that since the policy of exempting purchase tax for new energy vehicles was implemented in September 2014, it has been postponed three times in 2017, 2020 and 2022. Overall, the first two postponements have a certain role in promoting the sales of new energy vehicles.
"This extension is shorter than the previous two times. At the same time, the driving logic of the domestic new energy vehicle industry has gradually changed from policy-driven to market-driven. Therefore, the stimulating effect of this purchase tax extension on the overall industry should be smaller than the previous two times." Guo Beibei said.
There is little possibility of a sharp increase in the price of new energy vehicles in the future
Regarding the price of new energy vehicles, Guo Beibei said that the main reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year is the increase in the price of raw materials, such as lithium and cobalt.
"At present, although the prices of upstream resources have fallen, they will still be at a high level in the short term, and the cost pressure of car companies is still relatively high. Therefore, the probability of price reduction of new energy vehicles in the future is not high." Guo Beibei said.
Wang Lei also pointed out that the price increase of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year was due to the rapid rise in upstream raw material prices, which brought about the cost pressure.
"In the future, with the improvement of raw material supply and demand, especially lithium prices, the possibility of a sharp rise is relatively low on the current highs. Therefore, if the cost side stabilizes, there is little possibility of a sharp rise in the price of new energy vehicles." Wang Lei said.
Wang Lei said that the price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly in the first quarter, and a slight decline in the second quarter began to fluctuate. Next, although the price of lithium carbonate may still be at a high level, the probability of a rapid rise is not high. This year, the supply and demand structure is tightly balanced. The supply and demand structure in 2023 will be slightly loose.
battery manufacturers' profits are expected to be repaired
's future performance for major battery manufacturers. Guo Beibei believes that subsequent battery manufacturers are expected to be repaired.
"In the first quarter of this year, battery manufacturers' profits were under pressure, mainly due to the rise in upstream resources prices and the unsmooth price transmission. With the slowdown in the rise in upstream resources prices in the second quarter and the continuous price increase of major battery manufacturers, subsequent price transmission will be smoother." Guo Beibei said.
Wang Lei also pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, raw material prices rose rapidly, and the downward conduction of batteries has lag, which has caused pressure on the gross profit margin of battery manufacturers.
"In the second quarter, midstream materials prices have stabilized and fallen, and the prices of batteries and car companies have gradually been implemented. Judging from the semi-annual report, the gross profit of battery manufacturers has been repaired in the second quarter." Wang Lei further pointed out.
Wang Lei predicts that as battery sales usher in the peak season, coupled with inventory demand, the battery's prosperity is relatively high. Therefore, in terms of profit, as the price increase negotiations with car companies are completed, the price has formed a linkage mechanism, and the overall gross profit margin of battery manufacturers is guaranteed.
"Of course, for second-tier battery factories, the marginal changes in the profit margin of related manufacturers may be greater for the improvement of product yield, optimization of customer structure, and further increase in production and sales," said Wang Lei.
Lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries may coexist in the future
. Regarding the application of different battery technologies in the future, Wang Lei said that the development of batteries and battery materials mainly revolves around four directions: one is the efficiency of space utilization, the second is higher energy density, the third is lower cost, and the fourth is better performance.
"Overall, lithium iron phosphate has a high cost-effectiveness and is suitable for economical models around 500km. Ternary lithium has a high energy density and a range of nearly 600km, which is suitable for long-range and high-end models. The two have their own uses in different usage scenarios, so they are expected to coexist to meet different consumption needs and consumption habits." Wang Lei pointed out.
Guo Beibei said that based on cost advantages, safety performance and improvements in battery packaging process, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery has continued to increase this year. Judging from the current market development, the expected growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries will still be higher than that of ternary lithium batteries.
"Optimistically predicts that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the domestic market is expected to exceed 60%. However, from the perspective of materials, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries currently does not have much room for improvement, which is likely to limit its future application scenarios." Guo Beibei said.
Guo Beibei pointed out that from the perspective of consumer choice, there are various high-end, mid-end and low-end models. From the perspective of mileage, there are differences between short-range and low-speed, medium-range and long-range. At the same time, the types of power batteries used in different regions will be different.
"Therefore, the new energy vehicle market is expected to be more segmented in the future. Among them, in the short-range low-speed or medium- and short-range electric vehicle market, lithium iron phosphate batteries are likely to maintain their mainstream position. However, for long-range or other purposes, ternary lithium batteries are also expected to maintain certain advantages." Guo Beibei judged.
battery factory accelerates the layout of upstream lithium resources, which is expected to strengthen profit control capabilities
Upstream lithium resources, Wang Lei said that the main reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles and batteries this year is the cost pressure brought by the rapid rise in upstream raw material prices.
"So, we can see that battery manufacturers are currently extending their layout to the upstream for the consideration of cost control and resource voice."Wang Lei said that lithium resources are scarce resources. In the past two years, the industry has become the main constraints that affect industry costs and production and sales.
Guo Beibei also pointed out that the accelerated layout of upstream lithium by domestic battery factories is aimed at improving the supply guarantee level, alleviating the pressure on raw material cost, and once again highlighting the strategic attributes of lithium resources.
"Lithium resource development has high difficulty and long-term characteristics, and the release of mid- and downstream demand drives upstream demand. However, due to almost no incremental supply, lithium prices continue to be high. Battery manufacturers increase the proportion of lithium carbonate self-supply, which will help them strengthen their profit control capabilities. "Goo Beibei said.
Wang Lei emphasized that due to the strong cyclicality of the mine, the future price of lithium prices is related to the stage intensity of demand, and the market still has differences on the central position of lithium prices. Laying out lithium ore can optimize cost control capabilities in the long run.
investment prospects are good, and the battery logic is better
investment, Guo Beibei said that as a high growth and high prosperity industry sector in the future medium and long term dimensions, the overall investment prospects are good.
"However, because new energy vehicles are an industry with both breadth and depth, the links involved are complex, and there are many factors that affect the changes in the supply and demand of the industry and the iteration of industrial innovation technology is also faster. Therefore, for ordinary investors, it is difficult to study and invest in this industry. "Goo Beibei said.
Guo Beibei pointed out that, therefore, investors can invest in this industry through indexing, which is not only a relatively simple and easy way, but also can enjoy the dividends of industrial growth more efficiently.
Wang Lei said that at the current point, the battery logic will be better than midstream materials in the short term. At the same time, in the long term, the technology of excellent companies will also bring the company's own alpha attribute competitiveness.
However, Wang Lei reminded investors that in the future, we still need to pay attention to the risks of upstream raw materials price fluctuations , weak sales in the European market, market adjustments, etc.
"In addition to risks such as sales volume is less than expected and material cost increases too fast, investors also need to pay attention to the risks of industrial innovation progress being lower than expected. "Go Beibei said.
