On Thursday, October 13, the United States and Saudi staged a new chapter on the "match drama" of the "match drama" of the policy of significantly reducing production from November, and were analyzed as "escalating war of words".
The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a rare long statement, officially responding to the first time the US government’s anger after OPEC+ decided to cut production on October 5.
statement said that the United States criticized Saudi Arabia for taking sides in international conflicts and opposing the United States politically is completely disregarding the facts. The production cut is not a unilateral decision of a certain country, but has received unanimous support from OPEC+ member states and is "purely" based on economic considerations. The
statement explained that the goal of production cuts is to maintain the balance between supply and demand in the oil market and to curb market volatility that is not conducive to consumers and manufacturers. Saudi Arabia's "lofty goal of protecting the global economy from the volatility of the oil market" cannot be deliberately distorted and smeared.
More importantly, the Saudi Foreign Ministry confirmed frequent consultations with the United States before the decision to reduce production in October. The United States proposed to postpone the decision to reduce production by one month. The Saudi government reiterated that all economic analysis shows that postponing production by one month will have negative economic consequences.
According to CCTV, analysis generally believes that the statement of is intended to reveal that the Biden administration wants OPEC+ to reduce production of after the US midterm election on May 8 to prevent the surge in international oil prices and domestic gasoline prices before the midterm elections, affecting the Democratic Party’s election situation in both houses of Congress.
Home hours later, on Thursday, U.S. stocks Before the afternoon session, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby publicly refuted the statement of the Saudi Foreign Ministry, saying that the analysis submitted by the United States to Saudi Arabia showed that OPEC+ production cuts did not stem from market conditions. The coalition of oil-producing countries "would have easily waited until the next meeting (i.e., November meeting) to see how the situation develops before making a decision."
He also said that Saudi Arabia's so-called OPEC+ member states unanimously agreed that the sharp production cuts were misleading. "Other OPEC countries communicated with the United States privately, saying that they did not agree with Saudi Arabia's decision, but were ultimately forced to support Saudi Arabia's decision-making direction."
Some analysts pointed out that the rare statement of Saudi Arabia and the refutation that followed in the White House show that the relationship between the two countries has become extremely tense. On Tuesday, US President Biden publicly threatened that Saudi Arabia would "bear the consequences" in its relations with the United States after the production cut. Today's White House remarks also ranked "one of the sharpest rebuttals of the United States so far", saying that Saudi Arabia knew that pushing up oil prices would weaken Western efforts to impose sanctions on Russia.
According to media reports, although the United States has been setting a price cap on Russian oil imports internationally, some government officials have begun to worry that OPEC+'s sharp production cuts will backfire this plan, that is, instead, it will increase oil prices instead of falling and aggravate market turmoil. Some officials are worried that Russia will retaliate by cutting more supplies, which will boost oil prices.
But the White House subsequently refuted the relevant reports that it was "wrong", saying that the government held daily meetings to promote how to implement the price ceiling. Russia has threatened to not sell oil to countries participating in the price cap. The ban on imports of Russian oil from sea freight will take effect on December 5. The consensus among professionals is that the above two sanctions will seriously interfere with oil supply and exacerbate the energy crisis of .
, the IEA, which provides energy policy advice for "developed countries club OECD", issued a monthly oil report warning on Thursday that OPEC+ production cuts have pushed up oil prices, which may push the world into a recession:
"The economy continues to deteriorate, and the rise in oil prices caused by OPEC+ production cuts are slowing down global oil demand. With the ruthless inflationary pressure and the impact of interest rate hikes , the rise in oil prices may become a turning point in the global economy that is already on the verge of recession.
OPEC+'s actual production cut of about 1 million barrels per day will cause a loss-making situation for oil producers and consumers, because oil buyers are affected by price increases in the short term, and oil producers will see weak demand as a result."
In the IEA's forecast, the total global oil demand in 2023 will be 101.3 million barrels per day and the total supply will be 100.6 million barrels per day, which is actually in short supply, that is, the economic reason for opposing OPEC+'s production cuts due to the imbalance of oil supply and demand.
Oil prices rebounded from a low of more than a week on Thursday after falling about 2% for three consecutive days. U.S. oil WTI rose by more than $2, or rose by 2.5%, breaking $89, and international Brent once rose by $2.72, or rose by 2.9%, and rose by $95 on the day.
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