Just after the Dragon Boat Festival, the situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has undergone new changes. According to a report by the " Global Times " on June 3, the chairman of the Russian State Duma National Defense Commission, Andrei Kartapolov , recently told the media that the Russian army is preparing to launch a "third phase special military operation". The goal of this stage is to "control the three more states" on the basis of the controlled Ukrainian territory, namely Nikolayev Prefecture , Odessa Prefecture and Kharkiv Prefecture . Kartapolov's statement means that for the first time, Russia has confirmed that it will turn Ukraine into a "landlocked country."
First, on May 17, Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense, confirmed that the Ukrainian army and the "Azov Battalion" personnel in the Azov Iron and Steel Plant "started surrendering"; as of May 20, according to the The Paper report, 2,439 Ukrainian army and the "Azov Battalion" armed personnel in the steel plant "suburn all". Shoigu reported to Putin that "the Russian army has completely controlled the Azov Iron and Steel Plant and Mariupol ". With the "collective surrender" of the Ukrainian army in the Azov Steel Plant, the Battle of Mariupol, which lasted for more than two months, was declared over. means that Ukraine lost its last estuary in Azov Sea .
Secondly, before that, the Russian army had basically controlled Zaporoje Prefecture and Khlsong Prefecture. For example, on April 19 local time, people from the Rozovsky District of Zaporoze Prefecture, located in eastern central Ukraine, held a referendum, and the local people unanimously decided to "integrate into Donetsk ", which means that from now on, this area of the state will be part of the "Donetsk People's Republic" recognized by Russia. In addition, according to a report by "Russia Today" on June 4, during a special military operation, the Russian army "controlled the entire Khlsong Prefecture in southern Ukraine and the coast of the Azov Sea of Zaporozen Prefecture."
Finally, when you open the map, you can see that Ukraine has only two "oats" facing Black Sea , namely Nikolayev Prefecture and Odessa Prefecture located in the western part of Khlsong Prefecture. Therefore, Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian Duma National Defense Committee, said that the next stage of military operations of the Russian army is to control three states, including Nikolayev and Odessa. This means that once the Russian army's strategic goals are achieved, Ukraine will completely "say goodbye" to the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, and will completely become a " inland country ", and will lose about 1/3 to half of its territory.
So why did Putin divide Ukraine into "Southern Ukraine" and "Northern Ukraine", instead of using Dnieper River as the boundary, and into "Eastern Ukraine" and "Xiwu"? The reason for is actually very simple, which involves two aspects: "difficulty" and "maximization of benefits".
On the one hand, in terms of "difficulty", As mentioned above, eastern and southern Ukraine are generally pro-Russia, while northern and western Ukraine are more inclined to Europe. It is undoubtedly easier to control the "pro-Russian" Ukraine region, and in fact it is indeed the case. For example, Olkie Muradov, Vice Prime Minister of the Republic of Ocrimea, pointed out in March that after the Russian army controlled, Putin began to "formulate new military and civilian governments" in Khlsong Prefecture and Zaporoje Prefecture in eastern Ukraine; on May 25, Putin ordered "simplification of the procedures for residents of Zaporoje Prefecture and Khlsong Prefecture to obtain Russian federal nationality."
On the other hand, in terms of "maximization of interests", instead of "grabbing the river and governing" along the Dnieper River with Ukraine, turning Ukraine into a "landlocked country", bringing greater and longer benefits to Russia. This is because, although "grabbing the river and governing" can force NATO to retreat hundreds of kilometers to avoid its direct deployment to the Russian-Ukrainian border, it also means that Ukraine continues to maintain its outlets to the Black Sea from Odessa Prefecture and Nikolayev Prefecture, which provides a springboard and base for NATO to get involved in the Black Sea. There is no doubt that ensuring Russia's absolute control over the Black Sea is much more important.
NATO missiles hit Moscow a few minutes earlier and a few minutes later. In fact, it is not that important. We even pointed out before that even if Ukraine joins NATO, "the sky cannot fall" for Russia, because Russia has the ability to "erase the United States from the earth". When the United States pressed the dagger to the neck of polar bear , Putin also pointed a gun at Uncle Sam's forehead. Therefore, Putin will not "grab the river with Ukraine in order to "force back" US missiles, but will "grab the river" with Ukraine. What Putin wants is the "whole Black Sea" to ensure the absolute security of Russia's heartland.
Of course, it should be pointed out that Turkey is a member of NATO and it is also a Black Sea country. But it should be pointed out that Turkey is not the "cannon fodder" of the United States, and Erdogan is not the "puppet" of the United States. This is completely different from Ukraine and Zelensky. Turkey will not fight against Russia in the Black Sea for the United States. Turkey's strategic goal is Mediterranean , along the North Africa , and in the north of Syria and Iraq . It will not waste its energy on the "internal friction" between the Black Sea and Russia. Therefore, Putin "inlandizes" Ukraine in order to "maximize" Russia's interests.
So, can Putin finally "get what he wants"? In the short term, turning Ukraine into an "inland country" will not be realized soon. First, the Donbas battle has not ended yet; second, the war in Nikolayev and Odessa Prefectures has not yet been ignited, and the Russian army cannot expect the navy to "land" successfully. Black Sea Fleet has paid a heavy price for this, including the flagship "Moscow" missile cruiser . But in the long run, Putin is likely to succeed. On the one hand, the Russian army quickly adapted to the pace of war, and the Battle of Donbas was much better than the "first phase military operation"; German retired Lieutenant General Roland Cartel optimistically stated, "Russia may control the entire Donbas within a few days."
After the Battle of Donbas, the Russian army can "advance westward" and solve the problems of Odessa and Nikolayev Prefecture that the Russian Navy cannot rely on landing operations to solve by relying on landing operations. , but it should be pointed out that although Putin has a considerable chance to successfully "inlandize" Ukraine in the long run, this strategy is restricted by two major factors. First, to what extent the United States and Russia have reached a compromise. According to previous analysis, Putin used the "big fish" inside the Azov Steel Plant to make a deal with the United States. White House not only clearly stated that it was "freezing and misappropriating" Russian assets "illegal", but also strictly prohibited the Ukrainian military from using US-made weapons to attack Russian local targets. This shows that the United States is unwilling to force Russia to be too tight, so as not to really "reverse" to China.
For example, according to the Chinese Embassy in Russia on May 5, China and Russia are holding negotiations on the procurement of "some kind" of Russian-made weapons. Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said that it is "in line with China and Russia's core interests." The United States will control the rhythm when weakening Russia, and will be moderate to avoid Russia providing China with technologies such as strategic bombers and strategic nuclear submarines . Therefore, the degree of compromise between the United States and Russia determines the strength of the White House's aid to Ukraine. The United States will control the "rhythm" and control the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The progress of Putin's third phase of military operations will inevitably be affected by the degree of compromise between the United States and Russia.
Secondly, whether Putin can turn Ukraine into a "landlocked country" as soon as possible depends on the intensity of the Sino-US game. In recent times, the game between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait has suddenly escalated. Biden openly stated that it would "assist in defense" Taiwan. The US dual aircraft carrier fleet also appeared in the eastern waters of Taiwan. Japan intends to send active defense officials to Taipei to "strengthen intelligence collection." The period when Putin played the best in Donbass is precisely the most intense and dangerous game between China and the United States. If the Sino-US game continues to escalate, and even a crisis or conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, then Putin's opportunity will come.
On the contrary, if China and the United States "have agreed again" as in November last year, then Putin's life may be "sad again" and the process of "inlandization" of Ukraine may be extended. gives a simple example. Against the backdrop of the continued intensification of the game between China and the United States and the Taiwan Strait, according to a report by the Global Times on October 11 last year, the United States is preparing to deploy the Darkhawk hypersonic missile in Guam in in in in order to "strike targets of mainland China and South China Sea in within a few minutes." On November 11, China and the United States reached the "Joint Declaration on Strengthening Climate Action". On the same day, according to Global Network , the United States restarted the nuclear war command in Europe.
. It is worth noting that the "Dark Hawk" hypersonic missile, which was originally planned to be deployed in Guam for the first time, was deployed by the United States to the 56th Artillery Command of Germany. It is obvious that after China and the United States "consensus" were completed, Russia was under pressure, and the Russian-Ukraine crisis broke out; similarly, after the US and Russia compromised, China was under pressure, and after the "big fish" of the Azov Steel Plant was released, Putin launched a beautiful offensive in Donbass, while China faced "joint provocations" between the United States and Japan in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, whether Putin can "inlandize" Ukraine depends on the degree of compromise between the United States and Russia, and the degree of game between China and the United States.
