The global chip shortage crisis is becoming more and more intense
From the automobile to the consumer electronics manufacturing industry
"Chip shortage" triggered the butterfly effect
What is the reason for the global "chip shortage"?
Biden has been in power for a hundred days
Group bureau Online "chip summit" staged "hard marketing"
Get rid of dependence on Asia
Biden threatened to lead the United States to dominate the global chip industry again
Facing the problem of chip "bottleneck"
How to break the deadlock in the development of China's domestic chips?
Watch the world today
"core" war is getting worse and worse
The global semiconductor industry structure is changing
Automobile chip is in a hurry, mobile chip is extremely short of... "Everything needs to be grabbed" - this is the core feeling of every company in the chip production chain in the past six months. At the beginning of the year, the global "chip shortage" extended to the manufacturing field. Well-known American automobile companies have joined forces to petition President Biden, demanding that the US government come forward to resolve the chip production problem. The small chip has already touched the nerves of the global economy.
Against the backdrop of the global "chip shortage", US President Biden held an online "chip summit" on April 12, inviting executives from 19 chip companies including Intel , Samsung and TSMC.
Biden announced at the meeting that he would invest $50 billion to fund the chip industry in the United States. It is worth mentioning that Biden has also named China many times, saying, "China and the whole world will not wait, and Americans have no reason to wait."
It is worth mentioning that Biden held a piece of wafer at the "chip summit" held this time. The chip in general is cut from it. Just two months ago, Biden signed an executive order due to a severe chip shortage in the United States. At that time, he specially held a small chip and told the story of losing a country due to a nail that had a horseshoe. In two months, two products on the same industrial chain have appeared one after another in the hands of the US president, which is not common.
is also often kept in your mouth. Starting from the first month after Biden took office, White House frequently released information related to chips. In the U.S. Jobs Plan released in late March, the Biden administration hopes to promote Congress to allocate $50 billion to fund semiconductor production and research, with its core content including providing billions of dollars in subsidies to local chip factories. The entire plan will invest $2 trillion in the next eight years to rebuild US infrastructure, encourage scientific research, and promote "Made in America."
Global Semiconductor industry structure is undergoing key changes. The United States' absolute control over the semiconductor industry is weakening. 75% of global chip manufacturing capacity has been transferred to East Asia. Although US semiconductor companies have a 47% share of the global chip sales market, only 12% of this is manufactured locally in the United States. Another more realistic example is that South Korea is currently preparing to build a 3-nanometer wafer factory, while the United States currently does not have a 7-nanometer wafer factory. Although Biden is doing his best, the dilemma of chip manufacturing in the United States is still difficult to alleviate in a short period of time.
Shanghai Jiaotong University
Researcher of the National Strategic Research Center Li Yutong:
Li Yutong: This shows that under the current global division of labor, the United States cannot survive alone. The chip manufacturing industry in the United States also has its structural flaws, not that it can cover everything and take on a big picture.First of all, its structural contradiction cannot be resolved. The production cycle of of a product takes at least 3 to 5 years. It has been paid attention to now, and at least this issue can be gradually improved during Biden's entire term. Now it is just about paying attention. The specific policies, including government investment and manufacturer cooperation, have not seen specific details yet.
Li Yutong: The second shortcomings of the chip manufacturing capabilities of the United States have also been shown. Especially the production capacity of wafers, the United States used to account for about 37% of the world, but now it is only 12%. It is difficult to solve this problem in the short term.
Li Yutong: The third is that American manufacturers also have another feature, which is a model of instant production, and just in time will not be stocked. The storage of raw materials, including the production capacity, is guided by the market. Without some advance quantity, it will take a certain period of time to improve both in terms of cost and time. Therefore, based on these three points, the chip manufacturing shortage problem in the United States may not be fundamentally alleviated within the past 2 to 3 years.
chip is becoming a key battlefield for the "technology war" between China and the United States
Under the global chip "battle for battle", Taiwan, as the center of semiconductor manufacturing, has a strategic value. Taiwan accounts for 60% of global semiconductor annual revenue, of which TSMC is the core. TSMC is the world's largest chip foundry company, , and is also one of the three companies in the world that can produce the fastest and most cutting-edge chips alongside Samsung and Intel. At present, 50% of the global chip foundry production capacity is TSMC. The United States also relies on it very much, and the US market accounts for 61% of TSMC's total sales.
chip industry is divided into chip design and chip manufacturing foundry. The word foundry does not seem to be high-end, but in the chip industry, the foundry of chips has higher requirements for technology than design. At present, there are only five companies in the world that master 14-nanometer process technology in the chip industry, while TSMC has achieved mass production of 5-nanometer chips in 2020. Currently, Samsung is the only one that can compete with TSMC. In addition, TSMC is ready to start mass production of 3nm chips and has also made breakthroughs in the research and development of 2nm technology.
As frictions between China and the United States intensify, the outside world is also increasingly concerned about the geostrategic risks facing Taiwan's chip manufacturing, the global semiconductor industry chain. The US government obviously realized that relying too much on TSMC may bring risks, so it actively encouraged TSMC to build factories in the United States. Last year, at the strong invitation of Trump , TSMC announced that it would invest $12 billion to build a 5-nanometer chip factory in Arizona, USA, and is expected to be mass-produced in 2024.
TSMC has always hesitated to put pressure on the United States because it involves structural contradictions about whether to be close to customers or industrial chains, whether to avoid risks or reduce costs. Setting up a factory in the United States may help diversify political risks, but at the same time, it also faces new problems of being "killed on the ground" by the United States. If TSMC leaves, it will cause a heavy blow to Taiwan's entire industrial chain and will inevitably directly impact Taiwan's economic growth momentum.
However, some people have also noticed that TSMC's choice of the time point for building a factory in the United States is very subtle. The completion of 2024 means that it will only be seen after the next term of the United States' presidential term is over. By then, the 5-nanometer process is no longer TSMC's most advanced technology, and the 2-nanometer process will also be mass-produced. It can be seen that TSMC is not willing to deploy its most advanced production capacity in the United States.
Shanghai Jiaotong University
Researcher of the National Strategic Research Center Li Yutong:
Li Yutong: In addition to occupying this dominant position in the field of technology, it is indeed a very subtle and important factor in geopolitical games.TSMC can still play a big role in solving the problem of stubborn chips in China. If it "cooperates" well, China's problem can be solved to a considerable extent. If it "cooperates" without cooperation, China will make it worse. If this situation is reversed, China can actually stuck the United States.
semiconductor is becoming the strategic fulcrum of national security in the 121st century
According to the calculations of the Chinese semiconductor industry, in 2020, the sales of China's semiconductor industry reached 891 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8%, three times the global industrial growth rate. From the perspective of market entities, in the past five years, the registration number of chip-related companies in China has increased year by year, with an annual growth rate of more than 30%. Currently, there are about 265,000 chip-related companies in my country.
In the current global chip shortage, the calls for domestic substitution in China are becoming increasingly high. However, semiconductor manufacturing is not only a capital-intensive but also a typical technology-intensive industry that cannot be achieved overnight. If China wants to form control in this high-end manufacturing field, it is necessary to further resolve the institutional and mechanism barriers to resource factor investment and increase financial and talent support for the integrated circuit industry.
Shanghai Jiaotong University
Highlighter, National Strategic Research Center, Li Yutong:
Li Yutong: needs to fundamentally solve the chip shortage problem, and there must be a national-guided top-level design for the entire industrial ecosystem. First, national policies should encourage the investment of large-scale state funds and encourage the widespread participation of private capital. Only in this way can the government and the people form a linkage and form a sustainable and vibrant industrial ecosystem.
Li Yutong: Second, that is, what is very important is the cultivation of scientific and technological talents. In addition to the discipline setting, a supporting mechanism must be formed, including future employment of these young people, including encouragement and support during their studies. Third, of course, in the end, it is still a matter of return to the ecological problem. Only when there are markets and usage scenarios can our own chip companies dare to invest. It will take at least 3 to 5 years to finally achieve a willingness to use domestic chips, dare to use domestic technology, and be good at using domestic resources. Only in this way can a whole development trend be formed.
Host Lu Chen :
8 In the 1820s, German economist Liszt used "kicking the ladder" to describe the technological and economic suppression of advanced countries over emerging countries. This metaphor can interpret today's chip battle. Some people say that semiconductors are replacing the status of oil and becoming a strategic material that must be fought for by military strategists in the 21st century. From the perspective of the trend of the times, with the explosive growth of artificial intelligence and information technology, chips, as the core of basic, key and strategic industries, are the key to the comprehensive competition between China and the United States in science and technology, economy and military, and are related to national security.
A big judgment is that if the United States’ suppression and containment strategy does not make substantial adjustments, then the next 3 to 5 years will be a strategic trough for China’s semiconductor manufacturing. At present, China has reached a consensus from top to bottom, from the government to the public: the key core technologies of cannot be bought, cannot be asked, or begged, and it is necessary to develop an independent and controllable chip industry.
The battle for the top of the chip industry is not only a breakthrough for an industry, but also a charge launched by China to a manufacturing power. This year's During the two sessions, the words of economist Yifu Lin aroused widespread resonance: "Any way to get stuck in China's neck will only accelerate China's progress." This is an extremely long-term strategy that concerns how far China can go and how high it can stand in the future, and will also be the norm in the future. The prelude of a century-old game has begun. In the situation where there is constraining outside the semiconductor industry and forced inside, everything is pressing the "fast forward key".
Edit: Jiaqi, Li Wei
