2022 is nearly four months old, and the world has experienced unprecedented crises such as virus mutation , war, and stock market diving. Many people say that reality has become more magical year by year. These unknown events are like monsters that suddenly attack from the quiet place, disrupting people's normal lives and further affecting the drastic changes in society.
There is also a huge wave that can swallow everything in the ocean. When countless small waves in different directions gather together, suddenly hit the reef or shore walls with force, it may form a water wall of nearly 30 meters. Such waves are vividly called " mad dog waves " by geographers, and in severe cases, they can destroy all ships on the sea surface.
extends to the reality we live in. As the connections between the worlds become increasingly stronger, the undercurrents of society, economy and technology are also promoting the development of civilization. These undercurrents gradually increase, injecting more and more energy into the system, and new vortexes will be generated under the water surface and shape them into the next mad dog wave. Events that occur once a thousand years occur every ten years, while events that occur once a decade occur all over the world. Therefore, how to predict the upcoming waves around you and prepare in advance for response is undoubtedly something that today's businesses, organizations and individuals must understand.
The following text is authorized by the publisher and is excerpted from "Mad Dog Wave: How to Cope with Sudden Dramatic Changes", written by Jonathan Brill, translated by Zhuge Wen, published by CITIC Publishing Group in April 2022.
Identification of the mad dog wave
In the past, people have always believed that the sudden huge waves, like the mermaid and ghost ship , are just legends between sailors. It was not until the end of the last century that researchers discovered that these huge waves had certain manifestations.
There is a concept in physics called constructive interference, that is, the peaks of two waves overlap each other, and a composite wave that is twice as large as these two waves is briefly generated. The essence of mad dog waves is the same - when the seabed terrain or cross-current leads waves into a narrow gap and increases their amplitude, the sea surface will rise a huge wave of nearly a hundred feet in a few seconds, and the most terrifying thing is that these huge waves are often difficult to predict.
Mad dog waves are not regular waves, just like a system crash is not a regular event. The common point between the two is that they are both composed of several seemingly normal phenomena. We all know the importance of risk prevention and control, but when some crises come, people are powerless to resist, which indirectly confirms that regular general events may reinforce each other in an unpredictable way.
gives two examples that have already happened, which can better identify the "mad dog wave" incidents around us. We seem to think that the COVID-19 outbreak was without warning, but the fact is that there were signs of prematureness. On the one hand, the habitat of animals is widely destroyed, making it easier for the virus to spread from wild animals to humans. On the other hand, the increase in international travel and freight transportation under globalization has accelerated the spread of the virus. In addition, aging population means more susceptible to infection.
In the economic field, national interests are unpredictable, and trade exchanges can be changed in an instant. With the rise of new powers, citizens of mature economy have put forward more demands on the government amid slowing growth, and the world is redefining the social contract . This has also caused the foreign policies of some countries to change. For example, the United States began to tighten the provision of key technologies a few years ago, which put China's telecommunications industry in the face of impact, and the subsequent trade war is constantly intensifying the contradictions. Moreover, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has caused global competition in technology, labor, education, energy and natural resources to accelerate, and we will encounter more systemic crises in the next decade.
It is not difficult to find out from this that macro trends are the sum of thousands of individual events, some of which bring us opportunities and may also bring destruction. History will not repeat itself, but it is not unruly to follow. It is also very useful to study the main undercurrents of the past and their operating systems.
Therefore, individuals and organizations need to do the following three things to identify the next wave of mad dogs:
1. At least have some understanding of the main potential trends today;
2. Pay special attention to events that lead to the interaction of two or more "undercurrents";
3. Establish an understanding of these trends in the organization so that the entire team can always pay attention to the signs of the next wave of trends.
Jonathan Brill, a futurist, is currently a board member and chairman consultant for Frost Sullivan Consulting. As a speaker and entrepreneur, he has worked with hundreds of top 500 leaders of the " Fortune " from companies such as HP , JPMorgan , Samsung , LG, Microsoft and Guanghui International . He was a former executive at Frog Design and a managing partner at innovation consultans, and has trained tens of thousands of executives in innovation, strategy and decision-making skills.
Beware of the small "undercurrent"
It is true that we need to be in awe of the harm of "mad dog waves", but we cannot give up the potential opportunities due to choking. Therefore, it is crucial to identify undercurrents that can cause drastic changes in hundreds of trends. However, the undercurrents in different eras are different. We need to grasp its dynamic trends, be wary of risks, and make steady decisions.
The important "undercurrent" in today's society
The economy is the first undercurrent. It is the most human science because it studies how to use resources correctly and the motivations behind them. As the field continues to become more quantitative, it provides us with a window into what aspects can be optimized and where innovation can really change the world.
For example, the population problem that has been frequently discussed recently - demographic data is the flywheel of the economy, which determines the cost and availability of two most valuable resources, employees and customers. This is because in many countries, consumer purchases account for more than half of the total economy, and in recent decades, the main drivers of economic growth have been increased incomes from global education and demand from population growth.
However, among the 20 large economies, the average age of the population is rising, including China. Declining fertility rates and aging population may mean lower interest rates, slowing economic growth, increasing government debt, etc. It is natural to say what kind of storms such undercurrents will cause.
The second undercurrent is technological innovation. Today we may be on the verge of reorganization of human affairs, and technology plays an increasingly important role in it. However, just like the first three technological revolutions represented by telegraphs and radio, telephones and the Internet, in order for these new inventions to fully realize their potential, new infrastructure and close integration are inseparable. For example, the artificial intelligence technology (AI) that is increasingly deeply rooted in our lives, which has promoted the development of hundreds of other applications that rely on advanced pattern recognition functions, such as search, medical diagnosis, and autonomous driving.
Artificial intelligence raises human productivity to an unprecedented level, and it may even be seen that even in the case of slowing growth, people's living standards will improve as the consumption of resources facilitated by AI automation decreases. But on the other hand, the increasing complexity of this information technology system has increased people's dependence on suppliers. The economic, life and social impacts brought by technological monopoly are potential risks that need to be paid attention to.
The last undercurrent is the replacement of social contracts. With the changes in the global political landscape by economy and technology, today we can see that a new social contract is being concluded invisibly. In this process, it will challenge the assumptions about power, rights and wealth distribution for a century.
Internationally, with the increase in debt and productivity inequality, historical events such as "Brexit " and "Occupy US Capitol Hill" have appeared, which means that large enterprises and governments will need to re-define their relationship with the people, and wealth and resources will be re-integrated.In China, the emergence of phenomena such as "carbon neutral economy", "double reduction implementation", and "large factory layoffs" all show that new opportunities and new risks for individuals and enterprises are coming simultaneously under the changing social contract.
Crazy Dog Wave’s Coping Framework
In the past few years, the concepts of “ Black Swan ” and “ Gray Rhino ” have been mentioned many times. Black swan event refers to those low-probability and unpredictable high-risk events, while the gray rhino event is a metaphor for potential crises with high probability and huge impact. The "mad dog wave" incident has similarities with the first two, the difference is that it can be dealt with through a clear framework model. This is answered by Jonathan Brill, HP's global futurist and research director, in his new book, Mad Dog Wave.
Brier believes that coping with uncertainty is a key task for enterprises and large organizations in the next decade. To do this successfully requires not only to know that change is coming, but also to managers create processes and develop habits that enable operations, products, and marketing strategies to meet future challenges. This requires that every link of the organization's governance, demand exploration, value creation, performance evaluation, risk taking, etc. have the vitality of systematic innovation.
In this regard, Brill sorted out the framework for corporate behavior innovation in dealing with the arrival of "RougeWaves" into the "ROUGE method" shown below. He believes that this framework is in line with the risk-resistant thinking process of mature organizations: first, realistic testing can allow companies to master the current real data, and then build a system of power for companies based on real data, which will help companies perform groundable response actions in the face of risks. Then we should start a comprehensive forecast of risks, and all possible futures should be included in the scope of consideration, and then use the reverse inference method to determine where the trigger points and key decisions are. The last item is to conduct experimental testing on the above methods to simulate in advance whether the established plan has the ability to resist real risks.
"Rouge method" schematic
Great thinkers, leaders and businesses all benefit from the same principle. They will draw from a wide range of human experience and use this knowledge to avoid risks. More importantly, they constantly practice how to identify the huge waves that are coming, carry out systematic adjustments to the organizational structure before the waves hit, and maintain normal operating capabilities after an attack. In short, they can handle uncertainty freely because they know how to control it, or even profit from it. As a captain's business leader, self-sacrifice to save crew members is not the greatest. The challenge lies in how to predict risks from small phenomena, adopt the correct crisis response framework, and forge the ability of enterprises to "ride the wind and waves".
People are the same as organizations. There are always some people who can protect themselves in the tumultuous wave, choose the right track, and even find new opportunities. Just as the Inuits were able to accurately travel through Arctic tundra without map guidance for thousands of years. It is not because they have some kind of God-given , the sixth sense , but because they have penetrated the changes in the environment during their voyages. They found that when the huge waves came, there was often a light blue between the sea and the sky. They also noticed that the water flow at the stern of the boat would undergo subtle changes. Before the "mad dog wave" broke out, they had already changed their course or urgently docked through observation and prediction of the undercurrent.
The world is in a major change that has not been seen in a century. Countless seemingly subtle changes may spark a huge and unexpected new wave. If we can understand how these changes will affect ourselves and prepare solutions in advance, we can counter-enable ourselves with chaos and profit from growth and change.
Written by | Jonathan Brill
Excerpt from | Li Yongbo
Introduction proofreading | Lu Qian
