Policy Focus
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Industrial Policy
Consumption Push: In addition to infrastructure investment, the policy of stabilizing growth in the consumption field is also gradually making efforts. In terms of long-term policies, the "14th Five-Year Plan for Domestic Trade Development" was issued to clarify the goals, directions and means of social retail growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan". The total retail scale of social retail will reach about 50 trillion in 2025. In terms of short-term policies, the State Council issued tax preferential policies to maintain personal income tax preferential policies to promote consumption.
Industry upgrade: Related plans such as intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, and robot industry development have been intensively released in the recent 14th Five-Year Plan. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, 5G networks are maturing and digital infrastructure is further improved, which is expected to drive the development of new industries and new business formats. In addition to intelligence, the development goals of green energy have been further clarified. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires that the proportion of renewable energy installed capacity exceeds 50% by the end of 2025; the comprehensive energy consumption of RMB 10,000 is reduced by 15% compared with 2020.
Policy Focus
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Real Estate Policy
Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the People's Bank of China, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have made intensive statements, emphasizing the protection of residents' reasonable housing needs and the reasonable financing needs of enterprises. Adhere to the policy orientation of "housing for living, not for speculation" and strictly control housing market risks has not changed.
Financing Support: The People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document emphasizing that banking financial institutions should be encouraged to provide financial support and services for risk disposal projects of key real estate companies. Including increasing bond financing support and actively providing M&A financing consulting services.
Housing Security: Ningbo, Jiuquan and others have increased the amount of personal housing provident fund loans; Jingmen provides housing subsidies for talents with junior college degree or above; Beijing has clearly stated that 1 million units of various types of housing will be supplied during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reducing the restrictions on settlement of specific talents; Shanghai, Huizhou and other places have issued policies requiring commercial housing to build a certain proportion of parking spaces and elderly-friendly equipment, and further refined residential planning.
Pivot
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Domestic demand has gradually rebounded. The housing market has improved significantly. Under the high base, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose from -24.1% year-on-year to -16.4% this week; in terms of prefecture-level cities, the land transaction scale in 100 cities still fell significantly year-on-year, and the premium rate continued to stabilize at around 3%. Automobile consumption continued to recover, with passenger car retail rising from -2.4% year-on-year to 6.2%. The film market fell, and the box office weekly dropped to -48.3% year-on-year.
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external demand, running at a high level. The U.S. retail continued to be prosperous during the Christmas season. Last week, the average growth rate of U.S. retail rose to 15.0% at a high two-year high, and the CCFI index rose to 3,300 points, and export momentum was still rising. However, in mid-December, the export containers of the eight major hub ports fell to -2.9% year-on-year due to the base year-on-year. The CRB index runs at a high level, but the Baltic index fell sharply again, and the import volume can be weak.
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production, more rises, less falls. Production restrictions in the north continued, with the steel mill operating rate down by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, and the output of key steel companies declined. The demand for supporting tires is weak, and the operating rates of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires have fallen by 2.1 and 0.1 pct. The demand for textile and clothing fell in the off-season, and the load rate of looms rose by 0.3 pct, basically the same; with the restart of the midstream polyester and upstream PTA, the operating rate rose by 0.3 and 8.1 pct.
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Industrial products price, less rise, more fall. The impact of Europe and the United States is limited, crude oil inventories continue to decline, oil prices are 6.0% month-on-month; thermal coal supply and demand improve, prices are -3.5% month-on-month; rebar inventory rebounds significantly, and rebar and upstream iron ore and coking coal prices are -2.1%, -0.4% and -5.2% month-on-month. Cement inventory is still at a high level, with prices -1.4% month-on-month. Consumer goods prices are rising and falling. The supply and demand of live pigs reversed, and pig prices fell to -1.3% month-on-month.The winter cooling is coming, and vegetable prices are 0.3% month-on-month
Industrial production
Data source: WIND, Industrial Research
Industrial production
Fixed asset investment
Data source: WIND, CEIC, Industrial Research
Industrial product price
Data source: WIND, Industrial Research
Consumer product price
Data source: WIND, Industrial Research
Real Estate
Consumption
Data source: WIND, Industrial Research
