This is the 1318th original article of Panda Beibei
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1
The soul question from reality: Should we buy a house in 2022?
It’s been 2022. The Chinese people are smart and knowledgeable in the context of a broad environment. It’s really an inappropriate cliché to talk about the topic of “should you buy a house”?
Long-short game, the Air Force's home court, for most mainstream voices and public opinion attitudes, there are economic games between major powers, geopolitical risks, internal impact of the epidemic, economic structure adjustment, and national regulatory attitudes. What is it hard to talk about buying a house?
The market without confidence and expectations is destined to be a home court for bearishness.
"Don't buy a house unless necessary", you can wait and see if you need it. Although it is not currently on the table, it has actually become a general consensus point of view?
Consensus mapping reality. What is the general situation of housing prices in 2022 is clear at a glance. Even the official statistics confirm this reality:
Image source: Bureau of Statistics official website
Don’t talk about individual cities, luxury houses are hot, there is no market that can support volume, prices are completely unimportant, quantity is the key.
The reality of the environment is like this. People lack confidence in the real estate market and their expectations are sluggish, so there is no need to say more. Since
is going to talk, it must be innovative. Putting aside the housing prices and real estate market, let’s ask the soul question here:
For most ordinary Chinese individuals and families who have no institutional background and no family wealth inheritance, in terms of China’s economic environment and current social wealth context, in addition to houses, there are other channels and directions for wealth precipitation and preservation that are universal and safe at the same time?
This is a question raised by a real friend a few days ago. Faced with uncertainty, he was going to exchange the money in his hand for some US dollars or gold to seek peace of mind. It's not big, it looks like hundreds of thousands of dollars.
My answer is: "Why don't you consider going to the city center to buy an old and dilapidated house that you can rent?"
Friend replied: "I am afraid that housing prices will fall, so I can't see this market accurately." The question and answer of
is very representative: in the minds of most Chinese people, houses are no longer pure living materials, but carriers and investment channels closely related to wealth and assets.
has such a consensus. In view of 2022, it is the root of all the arguments that bearishness and negativeness.
cannot say that such a consensus is wrong, but it must be misleading.
stock funds needless to say, let alone making money in 2022, you can protect your capital. Don’t argue, this is a fact.
doesn’t talk about inflation, cash is deposited in the bank, interest rates continue to decline, CPI begins to rebound, crushing interest rates, and currency purchasing power is diluted, which is an inevitable trend.
Physical business, manufacturing investment... Let’s learn about the impact of the epidemic?
After a round look back, the house is still the most reliable precipitated asset for individuals and families.
Buy USD to bet on exchange rate . This is a gambler's behavior and involves a position issue. There is nothing to be embarrassed about. This is not something that ordinary people can play with, and it is not nice to say it out.
Buy gold, it’s okay to seek safety, but gold does not generate returns. It’s okay to use a little base to be a bottom-level safe asset. If you buy too much, don’t talk about whether it’s safe or not. Circulation transactions are a big problem. Should
be? This is a good idea, and it is directly linked to the real needs.
In a city where you live and develop in the long term, there is no house with its own property rights and clear property rights and related to the city's supporting dividends, that is, duckweed. Such a group should buy it for stability, which is a survival need, and it is understandable;
If you want to go to school, you need to provide a stable living environment for your family. If you should buy, buy it. Don't compare the short-term gains and losses of the economy with long-term quality of life and education;
If you do business and do business, you need to borrow funds from the bank. No matter how big the business is or how many patents there are, I'm sorry, the asset mortgage target that the bank recognizes most is real estate.
I really have money in my hands, so it’s okay to pay the mortgage in advance, right? Whether
should be or not is not a difficult criterion. It is still the same sentence. If you really need it, there is no sound.
However, the situation of mainstream public opinion and various opinions are actually "non-essential" groups, and the vast majority are actually the speculative arbitrage mentality at work.
regards houses as living materials and living needs, regards houses as asset deposits, mortgages are valid, think clearly about your needs, and whether you should buy them. This has nothing to do with time, environment, and public opinion.
consensus can be referenced, but consensus is not the truth, and consensus is not necessarily suitable for everyone.
Age of uncertainty filled with the fog of uncertainty, it is an important attitude to have independent thinking and truly understand one's own needs.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
2
Real estate value logic in 2022: If the key is not grasped, there will be misleading effects in the consensus
2022, China's real estate value has entered a cycle of value test with obvious overlap between the market and the environment. Simply put, it is the most obvious differentiation stage of Matthew effect .
This is actually a good thing: any market with asset attributes will move towards maturity and stability, such a stage is inevitable, and the earlier it appears, the better.
In the era of incremental growth, the biggest bubble is not the impetuousness and irrationality in the price, but the unrealistic level of expectations.
People who can understand this logic can be versatile in any investment field and can be easily used.
China's housing price bubble, in fact, for a long time, has basically focused on cities and regions with "over-hype and overflowing expectations".
, areas with no pillar industries to develop new cities and new districts, and small and medium-sized cities with very poor economic fundamentals and continuous outflow of population.
This view is highly contrary to the perception of many people. It is not a place where housing prices are high. For example, is sky-high real estate such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen the first-tier cities a bubble?
This is the consensus misunderstanding:
Can’t afford it yourself≠ is a bubble economy.
What is the bubble that cannot be supported by actual demand and purchasing power.
To grasp the key when looking at problems, there is another misunderstanding, which is the value view of being a chicken head rather than a phoenix tail.
is a big mistake. Is the old concept of Shanghai "I would rather have a bed in the city than a house in the suburbs" applicable today?
If you are not convinced, you can talk to the owners of Yanjiao.
Of course, the market prosperity and economic upward stage will cover up and even distort many market performance, but the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has broken everything, especially since 2022, due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, administrative control and regional barriers, the value of many cross-border real estate has been greatly impacted.
For Beijing, Yanjiao’s location is definitely better than Pinggu and Shunyi, so what?
Cities are the most basic cornerstone that determines the value of real estate. The bigger the city, the greater the effect and influence.
22, look at the value of real estate, don’t be misled by the so-called consensus. The truths in other people’s mouths are likely to be wrong and don’t know them.
Whether it is price or value, it cannot be considered in fact without fundamental factors, rather than following the crowd.
Image source: Toutiao Photo Library
3
speculation housing speculation is not worthy of sympathy, nor is it worth lending a helping hand
House speculation group is a very embarrassing group, often being criticized on the Internet, but in reality, it is highly sought after and admired by many people.
is so realistic, especially because in the past, the group that really made a lot of wealth in real estate speculation was regarded as an example and praised by many ordinary people and market participants.
For example, what is "Ou Shen", what is "Uncle Fang", the economy and society, who has a good vision, who has strong abilities, and who has a boldness, isn't it normal for people to be recognized in reality?
However, in 2022, many groups that speculate in real estate and price spread arbitrage can no longer play, especially those who leverage high leverage in the upward stage and are addicted to the pleasure of paper wealth growth. Faced with drastic changes in the market and environment, they either hold on to being deadbeats or cut off their lives. The embarrassment and suffering in this way are really not enough to tell outsiders.
This is a subtle tug-of-war in the current real estate market: the real estate speculators must cash out their positions even if they are willing to cut their losses, and there is real demand. Should the groups that once envy these real estate speculators’ wealth myths take over?
's point of view actually has been clearly stated, that is, it is not to answer.
Early housing speculation was a technical job, but as more and more people and funds poured into this track, it is inevitable that bad money would drive out good money and return to the average. Originally, housing speculation also paid attention to degrees, location, value potential, product strength and design. In the middle and late stages, I'm sorry, I'm all speculating on expectations in the upward trend.
The speculative group of real estate speculation has some guarantees in addition to the value of the set of real estate they really live in. Other real estate with obvious investment attributes are actually worthy of the demand group, so be vigilant.
Since it is an investment, you will be responsible for your own profits and losses. This is the most basic quality and cognition of the economy and society. You are proud when you make money, and you must also experience the completeness when you lose money, right?
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
4
Lightning protection guide: Some types of real estate are not good, and they will never be good.
From the perspective of property purchase, if you buy a house nationwide, the first choice is the metropolitan area. The economy, industry and supporting facilities of the Yangtze River Delta , the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area are different. Choosing to live and work in which metropolitan area is obviously a relatively important decision.
After confirming the metropolitan area, the second choice is the city. From the perspective of urban energy level, the first choice is the core cities of the metropolitan area, Shanghai and Hangzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta, and Beijing in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The core city is a resource gathering place for a metropolitan area and has broader development space.
For senior real estate investors, there is an unwritten standard of "rather be a phoenix tail than a chicken head", that is, buying a house would rather choose the suburbs on the most marginal frontier of first-tier cities than the center of fourth- and fifth-tier cities.
The same city, the central urban area and the suburbs are very different in all aspects. Houses within the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, and houses in Pinggu are not on the same level; similarly, the value of the inner ring in Shanghai is far higher than those in , Lingang and other areas.
Of course, I have to talk about the big thunder products in the real estate market that are not good and will not be good in the future.
There is no old and dilapidated small school district, old and dilapidated large, and large suburban apartments. This is not a thunder. Time to exchange space, and there is still a thought to come forward.
Even shops and office buildings, as business assets, have imagination and future to talk about.
But what about commercial and residential apartments, LOFT, sea view houses, elderly care houses, small property rights , remote suburban real estate, then I feel embarrassed, and thunder is always with you when you pay for the moment.
It is worth noting that such products cannot deceive many young people and mainstream demand groups, but mainly focus on pseudo-middles with investment needs, ideas, but not enough level, and the elderly.
Incorrect investment is the main reason for the decline of the middle class and the regression of the class.
If you can’t understand it, don’t invest, don’t invest in it if you can’t be sure. In extraordinary times, don’t believe in any intuition, but believe in the rules.
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at the end:
Several opinions and suggestions on whether to buy a house in 2022 share
Holiday time, organize your thoughts, chat is more divergent, and you can also record some thoughts.
At the end of the article, switch from "should it be?" to the point of view of whether to want it, and talk about some personal opinions and suggestions.
Whether to do it is a need, it is a relatively subjective perspective. Of course, there is no need to argue with groups with extreme thinking and hostility. If the money is in your own hands, you will decide to do it yourself and vent your emotions. There is no need to come here to find any sense of superiority.
1. The current situation is that without talking about the macro principles, the country, from top to bottom, is holding loudspeakers to shout for urgent needs and improving groups to enter the market to buy houses.
Although the current environment is still full of pessimistic atmosphere, reason is telling everyone:
No matter when, don’t confront the national will and policy trends. This is true for the industry and for individuals.
From the end of 2022, this period is a real living demand group, and there is no dispute over bonus window for entering the market to buy a house.
2, a market with truly asset attributes and value is normal for both rising and falling. For China's real estate market and real estate, it is inevitable to move towards maturity and stability.
is the premise that it has asset attributes. In fact, except for a limited number of cities, basically, the houses in most cities in China in the future only have consumer goods attributes, and at most asset mortgage attributes.
Different cities, different strategies, don’t expand more, make your own judgment.
3, this round of national real estate market support and stimulation has reached a very important key point, we must believe in China's ability and level of unwilling to give up if we do not achieve our goals.
is likely to let go of the warming and restlessness of a stage to restore confidence and expectations. If you really want to buy, either before this stage, you should be picky and optimistic about starting, or after this stage, you should remain rational after the temperature drops and buy according to your needs.
Never enter the market when the market is hot, and take action rashly when it is stimulated.
Please remember that in the economic environment, no individual can see his true needs clearly under the influence of trend fluctuations.
is about that. The above is a discussion and thinking about China's real estate and real estate market during the National Day in 2022. I will share it with you friends.
Image source: Toutiao Photo Gallery
(According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear suggestions on property purchase, investment, etc., and you can bear the risk of entering the market at your own risk.)
or above text, from @Panda Beibei Little Cute
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