Following the release of the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, the price performance in various places has also been announced one after another.
In the month, the year-on-year increase of CPI in total in the country narrowed compared with the previous month, and the growth rate in six provinces including Hainan and Xinjiang expanded. The third quarter is coming to an end. How will prices move in the future?
13 province CPI year-on-year increase was higher than that of national
8. The national CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
reporter checked the National Bureau of Statistics official website database and found that in that month, the year-on-year CPI increase in 13 provinces was higher than the national level, namely: Hainan, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Liaoning, Hubei, Guangxi, Ningxia, Jiangxi, and Xinjiang.
Among them, Hainan's CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year and Sichuan rose 3.0% year-on-year, making it only two provinces that have entered the "3 era".
htmlIn August, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in six provinces including Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong and Qinghai was the same as the national level. The year-on-year CPI growth in 12 provinces including Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Guizhou, Hebei, Shandong, Tibet, Beijing, and Henan was lower than the national level, and the CPI growth in Beijing and Henan both fell back to the "1% range".Compared with last month, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in Hainan and Xinjiang in August increased by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, ranking first in the country; the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in four provinces including Jilin, Shanghai, Fujian and Henan narrowed by 0.5 percentage points, ranking first in the country.
Multiple factors have caused the CPI increase to be lower than expected
Overall, the year-on-year increase in the national CPI in August was lower than previous market expectations. The team of Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities, believes that the weak food increase, the decline in energy prices, and the sluggish core CPI performance together lead to this result.
In terms of food, the month-on-month increase in food prices such as pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs is weaker than seasonal. However, the relatively high price of pork has driven the price of other meats to a certain extent, which has provided a slight support for the food sub-item. In terms of energy, international crude oil prices have adjusted, which continues to drive downward energy-related sub-items prices. In terms of core CPI, due to factors such as the suppression of service demand and the slowdown of consumer goods cost pressure, the year-on-year growth rate remained flat at a low level of 0.8%.
profile picture. China News Service reporter Zhang Yun Photo by
How to turn subsequent prices? Experts believe that two major factors need to be paid attention to: one is whether food prices can maintain the high-frequency price trend in early September; the other is whether international oil prices can rise, which will drive domestic refined oil prices to rise.
Assistant Director and Chief Macro Analyst Zhang Yu, said that as of early September, compared with the average price in August, the wholesale price of vegetables rose by 15.8%, and the retail prices of pork and eggs rose by 2.1% and 7.1% respectively; during the same period, the retail price of gasoline fell by 1.8% from the average price in August. However, it is expected that the increase in food prices will slow down in the middle and late months; if oil prices do not rise, the CPI in September may be difficult to break 3% year-on-year.
In addition, as the impact of high temperature weather subsides, vegetable production and market volume will increase, and vegetable price increase may decline; considering the production capacity situation and policy measures to ensure supply and price stability, the price slope of pork should also slow down; as the weather turns cooler, the egg production performance of laying hens improves, and egg supply will also increase. Therefore, the increase in food prices in the middle and late months is expected to slow down.
Pig market to ensure supply and stabilize prices frequently
Pig meat is an important variable that affects the trend of food prices. Against the backdrop of the start of a new round of pig cycle, pork prices rose only 0.4% month-on-month (25.6% last month), lower than market expectations.
CITIC Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Cheng Qiang said that from the demand side, the southern regions of the country have experienced continuous high temperatures since August, which has had a major impact on pork consumption. The poor follow-up of terminal demand has become one of the main factors restricting the upward trend of pig prices. Since the high temperatures eased in late August, pork prices have rebounded significantly. From the supply side perspective, the situation of slaughtering and reluctance to sell in the early stage has gradually eased, and pig output has gradually returned to normal.
data picture.Photo by Zhang Yun, China News Service
Looking back, with the arrival of the "Double Festival", consumers' demand for stocking has increased, and pork prices have shown a continuous upward trend in September. However, considering the impact of the epidemic and the launch of the first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year on September 8, the seasonal strengthening of pork consumption in the later period may be weaker than in previous years.
is focusing on the price of pork, and the official has also made frequent moves recently. After convening a special meeting on ensuring supply and price stability of pig markets with relevant departments last week, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on the 14th that in accordance with the current pig market situation, in order to effectively ensure supply and price stability of pig markets, the country will release the second batch of central pork reserves this week.
National Development and Reform Commission stressed that in the next step, we will continue to pay close attention to the supply and demand and price situation of the live pig market, actively organize pork reserve adjustments, and further increase investment if necessary. It is recommended that the farm (household) arrange production and operation decisions reasonably, maintain the normal slaughtering rhythm, and slaughter and fatten pigs in accordance with the trend.
Original title: "CPIs in various places are announced in August! The growth rate of 23 provinces narrows. How will prices move in the future? 》
National Issues Express
Author: Wang Enbo
Source: China News Service
