All life, all kinds of things, all the world
This is the 6th issue of the character column of "One Stroke and One Stroke"
Early autumn wind blows across London, and No. 10 Downing Street has also changed hands.
htmlOn September 5, the UK officially announced the results of the Conservative Party leader election. In a fierce competition with Rishi Sunak, a minority candidate who was born as the Chancellor of the Finance Minister, Liz Truss, the Foreign Minister, won the championship with a 14.77% advantage, becoming the third female prime minister in the UK to take charge of Mrs. Thatcher and Theresa May.
Tras can indeed be called a rising star in the British political arena. Interestingly, netizens who are not very familiar with her in China will also confuse her name into another English " Tesla ". She became the backbench MP of House of Commons in 2010, and dared to think and act, and joined forces with several Conservative rising stars in the same period to form a group, making a big splash. She has only been in the political arena for a decade, but has worked in the cabinet of three prime ministers, including Cameron (David Cameron ), Theresa May, and Boris Johnson (Boris Johnson ). During this period, she served as Minister of Environment, Minister of Justice, Minister of International Trade, Minister of Foreign Affairs, etc., and now she has taken on the important task of Prime Minister, which can be said to have risen to the top.
People can't help but compare Trass with the Conservative Party's past prime ministers, especially Mrs. Thatcher, who has been constantly "paying tribute" in her political career, which has caused some wonderful historical coupling in 1979 and Britain in 2022 - the same stagflation crisis, and the same "Thatcher". At present, the UK is undoubtedly facing the most severe economic situation since Mrs. Thatcher took office in 1979. High inflation, a crisis of living, high energy bills, and shortage of public services. Internal and external troubles coexist. Tras, who holds the fundamentalist Thatcherist banner, may be difficult to save Britain from the quagmire.
No. 10 Downing Street sent away Johnson, the "worst British Prime Minister" who was "forced to the palace", but welcomed Tras, who may be enough to "compete" with the former to a bad degree. The latest YouGov poll shows that only 12% of the British surveyed believe that Tras would be a good prime minister, which seems to imply that the future of Britain is bleak, and the whole summer of the Conservative Party leader election is more like a boring internal "self-stimulation".
Source: Politico
The way to Whitehall
Tras is not a traditional Conservative. In 1975, Tras was born in a middle-class family in Oxford, England. His father was a university mathematics professor, his mother was a nurse and a staunch supporter of the anti-nuclear movement in the UK. Tras often followed them to protest when he was a child, describing them as the "Labor left" who was enthusiastic about politics. But her parents were shocked later on, so much that her father refused to provide any assistance when she ran for parliament.
Tras entered Merton College, Oxford University in 1993 and studied in the Ace Major Philosophy, Political Science and Economics (PPE). This major gave birth to her rival Sunak, and also made her former prime ministers, Mrs. Thatcher, Cameron and Johnson. There are even elites from all walks of life in the UK, so that the outside world called PPE "the Oxford degree that ruled Britain."
Tras in youth
In fact, in college, Tras was not a loyal believer of the Conservative Party as he is now.At that time, Tras was one of the activists of the Liberal Democratic Party in the university. He served as the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Oxford and a member of the National Executive Committee of the Liberal Democratic Party of Youth and Students (LDYS), and has promoted many propositions that tend toward left-wing socialist stance, such as "liberating marijuana" and "abolition of the monarchy". She even launched a campaign against the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994, which was vigorously promoted by the Conservative government at the time, which was strongly opposed by Labour Party .
However, when he graduated from college, Tras immediately turned to the right-wing camp. In a later interview, she showed that her political concepts were "deeply influenced by Mrs. Thatcher." At present, she does intend to build herself as "Little Thatcher" in terms of dress style and political agenda, but this is a later story. It is interesting to note that Tras joined the Conservative Party in 1996, and Mrs. Thatcher stepped down in 1990, with a full six-year time difference, and the "Madame Thatcher's influence" seemed to come a little later.
Mrs Thatcher
Experience shows that a person who unconceals his interest in public affairs is usually not willing to wander outside of political life. For Trass, Whitehall Street (Whitehall), where the British government center is located, is her life goal and political ambitions. After graduation, Tras worked as an accountant for Shell and Cable & Wireless until 2005. During this period, she ran twice for the Greenwich Local Council in London in 1998 and 2002, but was not elected. Moreover, she also participated in the Conservative Party candidates for the Hemsworth and Calder Valley constituencies in the 2001 and 2005 British elections, and still ended in defeat.
However, repeated failures did not make her fall into a slump. In 2006, Tras finally joined the Greenwich Local Council and marched to Congress again in the 2010 election. During this period, she not only worked in the center-right "Reform (Reform)" think tank, but was also promoted by Cameron as one of the Conservative A-level candidates (A List). Living up to party expectations, Tras was elected as one of the backbenchers of the House of Commons (i.e., a MP who does not perform government functions) and soon started a decade-long government career (2012 to present).
"Little Thatcher" character should be established well
Tras once mentioned in an interview that if she can become a character in " Game of Thrones ", she hopes that she is the faceless Arya Stark , because she envies "can refuse to follow other people's expectations of her at any time." However, Tras herself seems to have never rejected people's expectations of her as "Little Thatcher".
When Trass' parliamentary career just began, she actively promoted the outside world that she had the same political image as Mrs. Thatcher - that is, Completely embraces economic liberalism , which includes a series of policy elements contained in "Reagan-Thatcherism" such as tax cuts, privatization, suppression of trade unions, and cuts of social welfare. The response from the outside world was also very accurate, and she regarded it as Mrs. Thatcher's "successor".
I don’t know when the media are happy to report everything that can make connections between Tras and Thatcher, constantly mentioning an unconfirmed rumor (and maybe even a lie) that Tras played Thatcher in a play rehearsed by school at the age of 8, suggesting that readers “foreshadow something.” It is worth mentioning that in a TV debate in July, Sunak and Trass both clearly expressed their admiration for Mrs. Thatcher and their political tendency to "return to Thatcher", which all show that fundamental Thatcherism is accelerating its resurgence within the British Conservative Party.
In the first two years of becoming a backbencher of parliament, Tras ran all parties and won over many Conservative MPs with their ideological ideology and similarity, with the image of "Little Thatcher", and focused on economic reform issues. In October 2011, Tras and more than 40 Conservative MPs created the "Free Enterprise Group" with Thatcherism as its purpose, including many new stars of the Conservative Party at that time, including Raab, who later served as deputy prime minister in Johnson's cabinet.
Tras co-authored a book called "Britannia Unchained" in 2012. The core point is economic liberalism and anti-government intervention. However, the book described British workers as "the worst lazy man in the world", which caused quite a lot of controversy at the time. With the recent release of the recording of "British workers' laziness" five years ago, Tras once again attracted widespread criticism. Although Tras tried to "blame" the relevant controversy to Rab, who was writing at the time, she was undoubtedly a staunch supporter of this part of the content.
Controversy means popularity. Perhaps it was the fierce attack from the Labor Party that made the ruling Conservative government at that time noticed the "Thatcher's successor", which allowed her to join the government as Minister of Education in 2012. Two years later, Cameron was quickly promoted to Minister of Environment and entered the cabinet for the first time; and was promoted by Theresa May to become the first female justice minister in the UK and the first deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance. It is worth mentioning that when Johnson came to power in 2019, including Trass, four of the five co-authors of the book entered Johnson's cabinet.
Tras became the first female justice minister and justice in 2016
Tras has been his staunch supporter during his three years in office. During her tenure as Minister of International Trade, she reached a number of trade agreements for Johnson to advance Brexit affairs and made great contributions. Later, she was transferred to the position of Foreign Secretary through this battle, playing an important role in the negotiations between the UK and the EU on post-Brexit affairs.
Interestingly, Tras regarded himself as an anti-Brexit faction and publicly accused the Brexit faction of being "extreme and outdated". She once published a public article in the British " Sun " that Brexit would lead to a "triple tragedy", but after the referendum, she transformed into the Brexit flag bearer and "picked up" Mrs. Thatcher's Euro-scepticism in the past. The rapid change in Tras' political stance is really surprising.
Not every "Iron Lady" is called "Mrs. Thatcher"
When he was Foreign Minister, Tras quickly won the title of "Iron Lady" with his tough style in foreign affairs. It not only won the attention of the international community, but also strengthened his position within the party.
Politico magazine once pointed out that as a former Minister of International Trade, Tras has always adhered to a moderate style and got along friendly with other countries to reach a trade agreement. However, in terms of attitudes towards China and towards Russia, former Conservative Party leader Smith said that Tras has always been "one of the toughest people."
As Johnson's successor, Tras named him in his victory speech for "stand up against Putin ", suggesting the coherence of the new cabinet in foreign policy towards Russia. As early as December last year at the NATO Foreign Ministers Summit, Tras harshly warned Russia that the United States and Western countries should defend the "free border" on the united front, and even pointed the finger at China's "Belt and Road". After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, she spared no effort to run on the "anti-Russia front line" - although the role played was minimal.In a speech this year, she advocated the "Asia-Pacific version of NATO", and called on the world to "take a tough attitude towards China", and said that World Trade Organization (WTO) should refuse to treat China as a developing country . Tras is undoubtedly one of the "hawkish" politicians in Britain.
After Johnson announced his resignation, Tras, who had coveted the position of Prime Minister for a long time, consciously strengthened his tough style towards China and Russia to win the favor of party insiders. She repeatedly made inappropriate remarks on the Taiwan issue and claimed that China is one of the "threats" of Britain; she also claimed to "let Putin come out" to talk, and said she wanted to "short the (Russian Foreign Minister) Lavrov 's spirit"; she even threatened that "will press the nuclear button if necessary", although this means "global destruction".
Tras not only always regards Thatcherism as the criterion in policy, but also deliberately imitates Thatcher in dress and behavior patterns. Paradoxically, she imitated Mrs. Thatcher like a star chasing star, but insisted that she "never tried to imitate anyone." In a television debate involving five candidates on July 15, Tras recreated the image of Mrs. Thatcher during the live broadcast of the 1979 election. Previously, many of her photos were suspected of imitating Mrs. Thatcher, including sitting on the "Challenger-2" tank in Estonian , riding a triumphal motorcycle in Thailand, and hugging a calf in Yorkshire .
However, Not every "Iron Lady" can become "Mrs. Thatcher" . In fact, when Tras can only attract party votes by "salute to" Mrs. Thatcher, it just means that she lacks personal charm and ability. Critics pointed out that Trass' imitation of Thatcher eventually became a formality, and her policy program was superficial, making it impossible to believe that she could lead Britain in the right direction in the midst of economic recession and geopolitical conflict.
It is true that from clothing style to policy propositions, Tras imitated Mrs. Thatcher, but she did not seem to have a clear political blueprint to revitalize the British economy like the latter, but advocated a highly simplified Thatcherism, using tax cuts to deal with changes, regardless of the huge changes that have taken place compared to forty years ago.
And Sunak, who also claims to be the "successor of Thatcher", proposed the "increase tax first and then reduce taxes" plan that "taxes first" seems more pragmatic and reliable. However, Sunak's fiscal equilibrium plan does not conform to the mainstream of the Conservative Party, and Tras' radical tax cut plan is regarded as the Conservative Orthodox since Thatcher's era.
The most important thing for the Conservative Party is to be able to elect a leader who is enough to unite within the party and can suppress Labor in the next general election. Undoubtedly, Sunak’s “traitor” label will have negative effects, but there is no need to exaggerate this part of the impact. The differences between the two in economic policies may be the decisive factor, and Tras was successfully elected, which means that the Conservative Party is still unwilling to change the economic development model that has been maintained for more than 40 years.
Tras came to the intersection of British reform
Similarly, Not every economic crisis can overcome by means of Thatcherism. Neoliberalism represented by Reagan Thatcher solved the stagflation crisis in the 1970s, but no one can guarantee it will succeed again.
As mentioned earlier, the success of each development model requires a social soil that matches it, and the relationship between neoliberalism and Britain in the 1970s was also the same. Today, the growing gap between the rich and the poor, the proliferation of unnecessary controls in the non-economic field, the lack of reasonable controls in the economic field, climate problems and the new crown epidemic, etc., are by no means able to solve the problem by "copying the homework from 40 years ago", and may even worsen the situation.
A misunderstanding that neoliberalism emphasizes market supremacy by no means equal to "the smaller the government, the better", but requires strong state power, but this power does not interfere with the market like a "visible hand", but is used to establish market principles and ensure its smooth operation in all areas. Moreover, judging from the situation in the UK, the tension between the weak tax base and the unsuccessful public services is the problem, and Tras, who only has "tax cuts", may not realize this - or turn a blind eye.
All summer, Britain faces a disaster caused by a political vacuum, and this is just a prelude to the coming of winter. Faced with the high inflation and soaring energy bills in the UK, although Tras vowed to take action immediately after taking office a week, she had previously strongly opposed direct economic aid to ordinary people, and even opposed the upper limit of the freezing energy bill advocated by Labor, which was an effective means to alleviate the UK's cost-of-living crisis. It is hard to predict her specific actions, mainly because of the confusion in her policy logic.
Under the numerous crises, Britain's economic development has reached a crossroads of history, and only positive changers can create a new era. The wheel of history rolls forward, and the Conservatives who are unwilling to make changes and blindly embrace the so-called "orthodox" are destined to become backwards of the times. Johnson's many "government intervention" measures taken by the Conservatives to deal with the attacks of Brexit and the epidemic have actually opened up a new idea for economic reform, which seems to imply that the power of traditional countries is returning, and the relationship between the state and the market will be readjusted. Next, it depends on how Tras will lead this change - any inaction or even directional mistakes will bring the baton back to the hands of Labor.
However, any reform takes time, and even the tax cuts that Tras is thinking about will take three to five years to play the incremental role of the supply side. This winter, instead of expecting some "shocking moves" by Tras, the British people should lower the temperature of the boiler, at least to make the bill less outrageous.
Author丨Chen Miaosong, Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news editor
Editor丨Wu Wei, senior editor of direct news, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
