conventional capacitors have increased by 15-25 times. For terminals with hundreds of materials, the cost of increasing capacitor prices has wiped out terminal profits and is even at a loss. The current situation has a very bad impact on the mainland's electronics industry chain, and the culprit directly points to the original manufacturer Guoji and its agents.
According to reliable news, "This wave of capacitance resistor price increases is really rare in ten years, with an increase of 15-25 times." Affected by this, a 4G LTE module using more than 300 capacitor resistors is in a loss-making state, and a router using more than 600 capacitor resistors has almost smoothed out its profits, and some terminal hardware manufacturers are already on the verge of losing money.
Since last year, passive components such as capacitors and resistors have turned on the "high fever" mode, and prices have risen sharply. In the spot market, the commonly used 0201 package 104 capacitors in have increased from about 4 yuan per thousand to about 60 yuan; the commonly used 0420 package 105 capacitors have increased from about 6 yuan per thousand to about 150 yuan, and all are in short supply. While made the original capacitor resistor's revenue reach a new high, its agents made a lot of money.
Why does the capacitor resistor continue to rise in price? Taiwan Guoju and other original manufacturers and their agents have pointed the reason to the structural imbalance of supply and demand. , in addition to the shortage of demand for high-end capacitor resistors in the automotive electronics market, is smart hardware really so scarce for mid-range capacitor resistors?
"The market demand for mid-range capacitor resistors is not so short. On the one hand, is because the original manufacturer is restricting shipments, and on the other hand, it is connected with agents to stock up on goods and speculate. " The above-mentioned CEO revealed that the current situation has a very bad impact on the mainland's electronic industry chain, which is not conducive to the stable and healthy growth of the mainland's electronic industry. The culprit directly points to the original manufacturer Guoji and a certain agent.
The terrible Guoju
Guoju is the world's third largest capacitor manufacturer, and is well aware of the structural bottlenecks of the MLCC market in mainland China and its role. Due to the obvious regional characteristics of MLCC technology and capacity distribution, mainland Chinese manufacturers mainly produce large-size and low-capacitance products, with relatively low technical content; Japanese manufacturers mainly produce small-size and high-capacitance products, with very high technical content; Taiwanese manufacturers represented by Guojiu are located between the two.
Especially after the Japanese original manufacturers began to give up some mid-range MLCC market at the end of 2016 and turned to high-end, many mid- and high-end customers in mainland China began to turn to Taiwan original manufacturers such as Guojiu. Taiwan's passive component giant Guoju is planning to promote the tide of MLCC price increases, driving Taiwan's passive component manufacturers such as Huaxinke to raise prices one after another.
On April 20, 2017, Guoju began to issue the first MLCC price increase notice, and then issued MLCC price increase notice on June 19, September 7 and December 1, 2017 respectively according to quarterly periods. The increase was so large that friendly businessmen could see it in their eyes and remember it in their hearts.
Industry insiders revealed that in 2017, in addition to these public price increases, Guoju also issued price increases notices to customers several times by its subsidiary and an agent; after 2018, Guoju and its subsidiaries began to raise prices frequently based on the reasons of China's environmental protection policies, and their performance boosted significantly.
The sweetness of Guoju began to pass the "high fever" of price increase to the resistor. In addition to being the world's third-generation capacitor manufacturer, Guoju is also the world's largest resistor manufacturer. On January 2, 2018, Guoju used the holding company Wangquan to issue a resistance price increase to customers, and took the lead in firing the first shot of resistor price increase, and concocted the MLCC price increase model as usual.
Driven by the frequent price increase of capacitor and resistors, Guoju's revenue rose sharply, and its stock price also soared. From July 7, 2017 to July 6, 2018, the share price of Guoju soared from NT$106 per share to NT$1,175. Within one year, Guoju's stock price rose by more than 11 times, and the increase in was far beyond the reach of other manufacturers.
The above CEO revealed that in addition to the direct price increase, Guoju and its subsidiaries also restricted some products from stopping orders, and even required factories to restrict shipments; among the products they ship, in addition to meeting a small number of terminal customers with direct supply, many other orders flow to their agents.
So under the gap in the gap in market demand of Guoju, a certain Guoju agent has more room to operate to achieve the purpose of selling goods. As for the specific method of selling goods, the CEO further revealed that after Guoju supplied the goods to a certain agent, he joined forces with several powerful agents to form a group of in the name of a certain agent, significantly increasing the price of Guoju products in the spot market.
"Accomplice" of a certain agent
In fact, Guoju and a certain agent are not just relying on raising the market price alone. For downstream terminal manufacturers, it is very important to ensure the normal market launch of terminal products according to the time period. Once the capacitor resistance transit period is extended, the market launch process of terminal products will undoubtedly be dragged down.
A certain agent of Guoju and China reached the point, repeatedly extending delivery periods, significantly increasing product prices. A customer of a certain agent of Guoju told Jiwei.com that the agent's capacitor resistors will not rise very high on the surface, but when the customer asks him to ship , he will deliberately say that there is no spot stock, and even said that there is no stock within half a year, and recommends other agents with reliable sources of goods to the customer. However, the agent he introduced will also say that it is out of stock, so he will introduce another agent or trader to the customer. will look for goods everywhere through layer by layer until the customer finally ships at a high price, and the delivery time is also extended to 1-2 months.
"It is through this bad gameplay that the delivery cycle is constantly elongated and the price increase of capacitor and resistors has been aggravated." A customer of a certain agent of Guoju further stated that according to the introduction of Guoju agents, the small and medium-sized agents, even traders found by downstream customers are actually closely related to Guoju agents, including either the holding subsidiaries of Guoju agents or its investors, and the source of goods comes from Guoju agents.
In this way, not only benefits the last delivery agent, but also makes a lot of money. So, how much does Guojiu's capacitor resistor increase in price in the end?
The above CEO said that taking the 4G LTE module as an example, among the 104 and 105 specification capacitors commonly used in , the 104 specification increased from about 4 yuan per thousand to about 60 yuan, and the 105 specification increased from about 6 yuan per thousand to about 150 yuan, an increase of 15-25 times. These commonly used capacitors of are often out of stock, and the spot market price will only be higher, and the price of traders' shipments will even rise by half at this price. For mainland terminal manufacturers, the profit of a high-end 4G LTE module may not necessarily reach US$2, which is completely a loss-making deal. Many modules used in power meters are sold at a loss.
"Our company has been in existence for more than ten years, and this is the first time that the current surge in capacitor and resistor prices have seen it. The company has never had the same difficulty in operating as this year. In the past, it could make at least tens of millions of dollars every year, and it will directly lose money this year." The CEO further stated that due to the MLCC required for high-end 4G LTE modules, mainland manufacturers Fenghua Hi-Tech and Yuyang are still unable to meet their product requirements, and Japanese original manufacturers are reducing production, forcing many mainland terminal manufacturers to choose to buy Guoju's products. However, with such a large increase in its capacitor resistance, many terminal hardware manufacturers will lose money this year, which has seriously affected the life and death of terminal manufacturers. Why is
attached?
Although the price of Guoju's capacitor resistors has skyrocketed, it is difficult for terminal manufacturers to increase the price of the whole machine. Because many manufacturers of have signed contracts before, not only does the whole machine have no reason to raise prices, but also has to deliver goods on time, so there is no way to avoid losses.
. Driven by the price increase of Guoji, the Japanese manufacturer Murata is also raising prices. days ago, Murata issued a notice to customers to raise prices for some MLCC products of the company. Murata's agent told reporters that there have always been two different factions: price increase and price increase within Murata. Now Guoji is constantly increasing prices. Murata's original factory has to start raising prices under pressure from all sides.
Affected by this, Fenghua Hi-Tech and Yuyang are also raising prices, but the price increase is far less than that of Guoji. The entire passive component market of has entered a vicious cycle mode, and the impact on downstream terminal manufacturers is becoming increasingly greater.
So there are rumors in the market that the China Regional Manager of Guoju Electronics recently said that Guoju MLCC will reduce its price by 10%; however, Guoju official immediately denied the rumors and denied it, and said that MLCC has no room for price reduction and can only continue to increase its price in the future.
Frankly speaking, the reason why Guoju dares to continue to raise prices so firmly is to see that the remaining gap between and the original MLCC factory in mainland China is difficult to quickly catch up with . Although mainland capacitor manufacturers are continuing to catch up, they still lack materials, process, performance, etc., especially for high-precision high-end capacitor products, mainland MLCC manufacturers still have a certain gap with Guoju.
. Mainland terminal manufacturers exclude large companies such as ZTE and Huawei, and can directly obtain goods from the original factory, and the price increase will not have a big impact. Small and medium-sized terminal manufacturers cannot directly obtain goods from the original manufacturer, and can only go through the agent channel. The price increase of capacitors and resistors in the channel has reached 20-30 times. For terminal manufacturers, this has smoothed out the profits of their finished products, and even traded at a loss, which has a great impact.
If it is true as Guoju said, MLCC has no room for price reduction and can only continue to increase in the future, then the spot price of the agent channel will be more expensive. This is undoubtedly an industry disaster for small and medium-sized terminal manufacturers. What will the value of continuing to produce finished products?
Faced with this wave of capacitor and resistor price increase that was rare in ten years, the above-mentioned CEO believes that there is no solution at present, only buying at high prices. Now many terminal manufacturers are holding on. Once a company cannot hold on, the company may go bankrupt, and the company may go bankrupt. Terminal manufacturers go bankrupt at a loss, so why can Guoju stay with them? So in the end, what support will Guoju stocks that double 11 times in one year? Whose thigh should a certain agent in Guoju hold? What Guoju faces in the future may be the "question" of a commercial contract that is bigger than the industry accused.
