After the short-term US gold price dived near 1707 yesterday, it quickly rose to 1745 and covered all losses. In yesterday's strategy, Xiao Mingyue's operation was to continue looking down at the 1730 mark, and the target levels of 1720-1710 were all reached. On the other hand, U.S. crude oil rebounded and adjusted as expected, and the support in the low 93-94 area is effective. Last night, during the European and American trading sessions, it hit the 97 and 98 lines at least twice respectively. According to Xiao Mingyue's operation, friends who relied on the low of 94 to enter the long position also made a lot of profits.
Gold:
Overnight, the United States released inflation data for June. Among them, the CPI in June was 9.1%, a record high in decades. The core CPI in June was 5.9%. After the CPI data was released, U.S. federal funds rate futures showed that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 275 basis points in September increased to 80%. Federal Reserve officials have released a signal to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in two weeks. This expectation will significantly suppress gold prices in the short term. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and concerns about economic recession still attract bargain hunting to support gold prices. It can be seen that Xiao Mingyue is inclined to believe that the possibility of gold fluctuating back and forth at low levels in the market outlook is relatively high.
Technical aspect: In the 4-hour cycle, after the gold price fell below the 1710 mark overnight, a "boots fell" market appeared, and the U.S. dollar also surged higher and fell back at that time, attracting some bargain hunting forces to enter the market, providing gold prices with support. Opportunity for a short-term rebound. The gold price once rebounded above the MA34 moving average of $1,740. The bottom of deviated from the and the bullish signal was clear. The gold price has the possibility of breaking away from the short shock and rising; in the 1-hour period, with the help of bottoming out and rebounding, MA8 successfully crossed MA34. Moving averages, short-term bullish and short-term sentiments have entered a divergent and volatile pattern, which is a rare change compared to the previous trend of blindly testing downwards. Therefore, if the gold price retreats to the 1722-20 area, you can try to enter the long position. When the market outlook effectively stabilizes at 1745, there may be further upward momentum.
Crude oil:
API and EIA data released yesterday showed that crude oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased significantly. U.S. crude oil changed its previous sharp downward trend and maintained a volatile adjustment overall, indicating that market sentiment is easing. Although the market's concerns about a macroeconomic recession have cooled down, poor performance of U.S. economic data may also cause this sentiment to dominate the market again. In addition, the problem of insufficient crude oil supply still exists. Xiao Mingyue is inclined to see oil prices tend to fluctuate and adjust in the short term.
Technical aspect: In the 4-hour cycle, oil prices remained volatile yesterday and did not continue the decline. At this point, the fifth wave of the downward push wave has been confirmed. The bullish signal of the bottom deviation is obvious, and MA8 has shown signs of turning, all indicating the possibility of a rebound in the market outlook. The upper resistance is larger, focusing on the MA34 moving average near the 100 mark; in the 1-hour period, MA8 has successfully crossed the MA34 moving average, and the short-term long and short sentiment has entered a divergent and volatile pattern. At the same time, in view of the effectiveness of the support in the 93-94 area of yesterday's low, and with the simultaneous upward movement of the high and low, it is possible for oil prices to continue to test the 100 mark after breaking through yesterday's high of 98 during the day.
Today’s focus:
20:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to July 9 (ten thousand people)
20:30 United States June PPI monthly rate
22:30 United States EIA Natural gas for the week to July 8 inventory (billion cubic feet)
23:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks on the U.S. economic outlook
