Taiwan Evergreen Marine The super-large cargo ship "Changci" stuck in Egypt's Suez Canal was still unable to move as of the 26th. More than 160 ships were forced to queue up in the canal, causing one of the worst shipping congestions in years. . The "ship jam" caused the suspension of two-way shipping in the Suez Canal, and shipping worth approximately US$9.6 billion per day was also blocked. Outside the Suez Canal, the "ship jam" incident also flapped butterfly wings, affecting the supply of oil, natural gas, and copper in the global market, and may even threaten the production of toilet paper. "It can be said that the blockage of the Suez Canal has disrupted the rhythm of global liner operations," Wu Minghua, a senior shipping analyst in Shanghai, told the Global Times reporter on the 26th. According to the current progress of Egypt's handling of the incident, if there are not more professional personnel and Equipment is involved, and the blockage caused by the grounding of the ship will last for 10-14 days, which will have a greater impact on global maritime trade.
Caption: On the 25th local time, multiple tugboats were working hard to rescue the cargo ship "Changci".
From rising oil prices to toilet paper supply
As of the 26th local time, the rescue work of the "Changci" freighter was making difficult progress. According to a report by CNN on the 26th, although nine tugs, two dredgers, and four excavators were used to rescue the cargo ship, which was almost as long as the Empire State Building in New York, it was still Stuck in one of the busiest canals in the world. The Suez Canal Authority said that in order to dig out the giant cargo ship that has blocked the channel since Tuesday local time, 20,000 cubic meters of sand, equivalent to eight Olympic swimming pools, need to be cleared from the canal. The Suez Canal Authority, which originally announced that the problem would be solved within two days, also issued a statement on the 25th saying that the expected resumption of the giant ship has been postponed and that navigation in the Suez Canal will be temporarily suspended from that day until the canal is completely unblocked.
" The New York Times " described the cargo ship on the 26th as "a big whale stranded on the beach", blocking the key channel of global trade. Egypt's "Financial News" reported that about 30% of the world's oil transported by sea is completed through the Suez Canal. In other words, if the Suez Canal is suspended for one day, the transportation of millions of barrels of oil will be delayed. The losses caused to merchants and customers can be imagined. Experts interviewed by the Russian Satellite News Agency said that this "ship jam" may cause oil prices to increase by 10% or even higher.
On another cargo ship "Maersk Denver" that happened to be behind the Evergreen Marine "Changci", someone took a picture of the Evergreen Marine cargo ship being stuck and uploaded it to social media. Picture from Taiwan United News Network
There are already signs that the blockage is disrupting the global flow of liquefied natural gas. The U.S. "Market Watch" said that because of the blockage, LNG prices have risen moderately. 8% of the world's liquefied natural gas transportation passes through the Suez Canal. Natural gas products shipped to Europe by the world's largest liquefied natural gas provider Qatar basically pass through the canal. If the blockage lasts for two weeks, around 1 million tonnes of LNG could be delayed in shipments to Europe.
The US CNBC website stated that in the context of the new crown epidemic, this crisis is another blow to the global supply chain. Shipping delays could affect everything from the clothes and shoes people order online to fitness equipment, electronics, food and global energy supplies.
What’s more serious is that the risk of global toilet paper shortages will rise again because pulp transportation may be blocked. According to a report by Fox News on the 25th, Brazil's Suzano Company, the world's largest toilet paper pulp manufacturer, said that the current global container crisis may cause supply obstacles, leading to a shortage of toilet paper. The company mainly transports wood pulp in bulk carriers, but as demand for container ships surges, cargo loading pressure increases, causing shipment delays. The company's chief executive, Charka, said disruptions in the pulp trade would eventually affect toilet paper supplies if producers did not have adequate inventories.
China's copper imports delayed
Germany's "Wirtschaftswoche" said on the 25th that the "ship jam" in the Suez Canal has made it worse for China-Europe transportation, which is already at a bottleneck. Because the journey from the Suez Canal to the Port of Hamburg takes about 10 days.The impact will be noticeable from early to mid-April. Hamburg Port Company stated that one in every three containers in the Port of Hamburg comes from China. Currently, they are all stuck in the Suez Canal. The Port of Hamburg is losing millions of euros every day.
The "ship jam" incident is also affecting the Chinese market. Mysteel, a commodity service agency, said that the prolonged blockage of the Suez Canal may worsen China's copper supply problem. Even if the problem is resolved within a few days, ship traffic operations may cause delays in copper shipments from Western countries to China. The next month.
Wu Minghua, a senior shipping analyst in Shanghai, told a reporter from the Global Times on the 26th that China’s copper ore is mainly imported from African countries and generally does not need to pass through the Suez Canal. Since most of the routes passing through the Suez Canal are container ships rather than bulk carriers transporting commodities such as coal, iron, and grain, it will mainly affect industrial supplies and consumer goods. In addition, China's pulp imports mainly come from South America, and some are also imported from European countries such as Finland and Poland. Ships transporting pulp from Europe do need to pass through the Suez Canal, which will have a certain impact.
Wu Minghua said that as one of the three largest container liner routes in the world, the European routes passing through the Suez Canal have huge container sizes and cargo values. Some of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas needed by China are also transported through this route. Since this is a shipping trunk line, this "ship jam" incident will affect the shipping and trade of almost all countries along the Eurasian continent . Wu Minghua added that routes starting from Asia and arriving in Europe and the Americas are called "pendulum routes" in the industry. Since Asia to Europe also needs to pass through the Suez Canal, this incident will even affect the Americas.
The person in charge of a grain trading company in Fujian told a "Global Times" reporter on the 26th that if the congestion problem cannot be solved quickly, agricultural products produced in Ukraine will have to be rerouted to Africa's Cape of Good Hope for shipment to China, which means more time and money will be spent. . However, a freight forwarder in Ningbo said that detouring around the Cape of Good Hope will not necessarily cost more, because the additional fuel cost is almost the same as the toll charged by the Suez Canal, mainly because it will take about an extra week.
Russia promotes Arctic waterways
" Wall Street Journal " reported on the 26th that shipping experts warned that it may take days or even weeks for the Suez Canal channel to resume navigation. Currently, exporters and customers on both continents, Europe and Asia, are preparing for cargo delays. Separately, Maersk and German company Hapag-Lloyd are considering rerouting cargo ships around Africa to avoid congestion in the Suez Canal. Singapore's Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung asked port authorities to prepare for shipping disruptions. According to a report by the British Financial Times on the 26th, some shipping companies have contacted the U.S. Navy to inquire about the possibility of piracy threats faced by diverted ships. Maritime security company Dryad Global said that due to the temporary blockade and blockage of the Suez Canal, static ships have significantly increased the risk of pirate boarding, and ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are expected to face greater dangers.
The US CNBC website stated on the 26th that the canal blockage is not bad news for everyone. JP Morgan believes that container shipping will be the biggest beneficiary from a longer closure of the Suez Canal, while tankers, dry bulk and air cargo may also face some higher rates, with Asian shipping companies benefiting maximum. A person familiar with the operation of China-Europe freight trains told the Global Times on the 26th that due to the blockage of the Suez Canal, domestic demand for China-Europe freight trains has increased recently.
Russia also took the opportunity to promote the Arctic sea route. According to a report by Yahoo News on the 26th, Russia promoted the Arctic waterway as an "alternative" to Egypt's Suez Canal on the 25th. Regarding the Arctic waterway promoted by Russia, Wu Minghua said that due to climate reasons, the waterway has limited operating hours a year, and July to September every year is the golden period. In addition, the Arctic waterways also have requirements for the ships themselves, which must have ice-breaking functions and have higher requirements for ship safety control.
Wu Minghua said that due to the impact of this incident, the International Maritime Organization may urge Egypt to improve its management of the Suez Canal and crisis response measures while respecting Egypt's sovereignty, and member states may also be willing to help in this regard. Because the smooth operation of the Suez Canal concerns the interests of all parties.
Source: Global Network
