As the Ukrainian army continues to annihilate the Russian army and gradually advances towards Moscow, good news spreads frequently on the Internet, and the Ukrainian army seems to be getting closer and closer to victory. But the actual situation is that the Russian army continues to advance in the Donbass region, and Ukraine is giving up its positions. Obviously, the Ukrainian army has no possibility of defeating the Russian army in reality. However, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov still firmly believes that the one-million-strong Ukrainian army with the ambition to serve the country will completely crush the "aggression" from Russia. He even claimed that Russia had only three endings to choose from, including defeat and disintegration.
The first ending: The Ukrainian army will eventually advance to the border between the two countries before the war broke out on February 24 this year. After that, Ukraine and Russia started negotiations on the status of Donbass and Crimea in an equal dialogue manner. This is probably the ultimate goal of all military operations in Ukraine since 2014, and it is also a relatively normal one among the three goals.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainian army does not have the ability to repel the Russian army at this stage, and the defeatist sentiments and ultra-nationalist sentiments intertwined in Ukraine will also affect Ukraine's status on the Russia-Ukraine dialogue platform. The competition between the armies of both sides for the areas under their actual control is not so much that Ukraine can divide it however it wants, but that the victorious and powerful side has the right to determine the ownership of the area under its actual control. However, the Ukrainian army, which has suffered repeated defeats in the eastern battlefield and is retreating steadily, obviously does not have the status and strength to make similar demands. It is also impossible for the Ukrainian army to turn into a strategic counterattack and regain lost ground. As the Ukrainian army forcibly recruited a large number of civilians to join the army in the country, the ideological and technical and tactical levels of the large number of recruits were uneven. Moreover, the administrative management of the Ukrainian army itself was in chaos. Unintegrated civilians were forcibly included in the Ukrainian army. It will bring about a cliff-like drop in the Ukrainian army's combat effectiveness. Before the new recruits are digested, the Ukrainian army will not rush into the battlefield with the new soldiers it finally recruited. Therefore, the so-called million-strong army is just propaganda material on the books.
Reznikov’s second fantasy ending is: Ukraine defeats Russia with the help of the West. He believes that Ukraine has the collective help of Western countries, so the current war is a war of resources against resources. Although Russia has more personnel and armaments, its tactics are outdated and its equipment is outdated, making it difficult to resist the advanced strike weapons aided by the West. . The Ukrainian Armed Forces have exchanged fire with Russian troops many times before and gained the upper hand.
In fact, Western countries’ assistance to Ukraine is not free, but provides equipment to Ukraine in the form of lease. Not only does the ownership not belong to Ukraine, but it is also complex and has incompatible parts. NATO models for each country’s own use and export models. This has made the Ukrainian army's logistics department bloated and inefficient. The Ukrainian legal currency " hryvnia ", which plummeted due to the war, has made the Ukrainian economy, which was already in a debt crisis, even worse. Its Western debt will be even more difficult to repay in the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, Russia took advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to sell Russian-made weapons to the world's arms users. The Western camp's strong demand for Russian products such as energy and agricultural products allowed Russia to obtain foreign exchange from the West despite being blocked by Western countries. , also promoted the increase in the exchange rate of the ruble exchange of some foreign currencies, making it more convenient to obtain foreign exchange.Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it has been proved that in the comparison of the military strength and combat thinking of the two sides, the Russian army has achieved a generational advantage over the Ukrainian army, and the Russian army's attack on its navy and air force in the early stages of the war has caused the above two arms to lose their capabilities. The value of tactical naval and air force existence. At the same time, the situation distribution of both sides on the ground battlefield is also dominated by the advantage of the Russian army. The local advantage occupied by the Ukrainian army cannot change the current battlefield situation of Russia and Ukraine.
The third outcome envisaged by Ukraine is: after Russia's defeat, Ukraine and other countries will begin to dismember it - based on the original Russian national boundaries, it will be split into Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. Multiple countries within . According to the vision of the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, as Western countries are increasing military assistance to Ukraine through a new round of Lend-Lease bill, and as the Russian army’s series of military operations in Donbass and Lischichansk are progressing smoothly, Ultra-nationalist sentiment in Ukraine has grown due to a sharp setback in self-esteem, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Zelensky government to accept concessions. Based on Ukraine’s strength and status, the Ukrainian military does not yet have the right or ability to bargain with Russia on territory and sovereignty, nor does it have the ability to follow up on changes in its methods. Ukraine may not be able to afford to target a nuclear-armed country. Moreover, it is needed for earth-breaking operations by nuclear powers, and it cannot bear the political and military risks it brings.
Reznikov’s above-mentioned statement is not only sensational but also lacks basic factual basis. It is completely based on wishful thinking of a gambler’s mentality. No matter who wins the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, only the Ukrainian people will suffer the huge trauma of the war. Even if Ukraine wins, the Ukrainian people will be stuck in endless loan repayments. Compared with winning or losing the war, from now on we are controlled by others and become slaves under the hegemony of the US dollar. And the ragtag group of people with varying levels of combat skills obviously cannot stand up to their hard praise - after all, including these people in the composition of the Ukrainian armed forces is irresponsible to these lives. Since February, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has resulted in a massive loss of Ukraine’s strong labor force, and finding young people of suitable age has escalated to become the most urgent and persistent problem for Ukraine’s defense mobilization departments. At present, a large number of teenage recruits have appeared in the Ukrainian army's front-line troops, and its manpower depletion is evident.
Instead of worrying about how to divide Russia, Ukraine should rather maintain the internal order and stability of Ukraine and use peaceful means to end the war with relative dignity as soon as possible. Otherwise, I am afraid that before the "million-strong army" can go to the battlefield, it will lose its troops due to the constant internal friction of Ukraine itself. . The main problem that Ukraine currently faces is how to restore its own order and eliminate the impact of the conflict. It is not to overdraw its war potential to compete with another major country.
