Let’s first look at the geographical location of Ukraine. Ukraine is bounded by Russia in the east, Belarus in the north, all NATO members except the small country Moldova in the west, and the Black Sea in the south. If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will lose both Ukraine's military

2024/05/0721:33:32 hotcomm 1863

Let’s first look at the geographical location of Ukraine. Ukraine is in the east with Russia, in the north with Belarus, in the west with the exception of the small country Moldova, all members of NATO, and in the south with the Black Sea.

If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will lose both Ukraine’s military buffer zone and its access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.

Military buffer zone

Currently, NATO's most forward military bases on the northern shore of the Black Sea are Romania and Poland. If Ukraine joins NATO, then NATO's most forward military bases can be placed on the Russian border. The closest location is less than 500 kilometers away from Moscow. Within the firing range of the missile.

Land kings such as tanks can also reach the Russian border directly through Poland, posing a great threat to Russia's homeland defense.

The right to sea in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

Russia has a Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea, which is one of Russia's four major naval fleets. There are several bases in the Black Sea and Azov Sea. The main base is in the Crimean port city of Sevasto. Bol. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Black Sea Fleet has been on lease from Ukraine. In 2014, Crimea held a referendum to join the Russian Federation.

In 2018, Donetsk and Luhansk fought for independence. On February 21, 2022, Russia announced that it recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia thus controls the Sea of Azov.

In order for the Black Sea Fleet to go to sea, it needs to pass through the Turkish Strait controlled by Türkiye and enter the Mediterranean Sea.

The Montreux Convention signed by the Black Sea coastal countries in 1936 strictly limits the stay time and tonnage of warships from non-Black Sea countries in and out of the Black Sea. Black Sea countries, except aircraft carriers, can freely pass through the Turkish Strait in peacetime and recognize Turkey's sovereignty over the strait. Turkey has the right to block the strait in times of war or neutrality.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia inherited the Black Sea Fleet located in Crimea, Ukraine, in the form of a lease. The maneuverability of the Black Sea Fleet was greatly weakened. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the eastward expansion of NATO, the Russian Black Sea Fleet completely lost control of the Black Sea. NATO Warships also entered and exited the Black Sea many times.

Crimea entered Russia in 2014, and the Black Sea Fleet was reborn. Since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War, the Port of Tartus in Syria, as Russia’s only overseas base outside the CIS, has become Russia’s military material support base for aiding Syria. With the continuation of the Syrian war and Russia’s deep involvement, Tartus The Sri Lankan naval base will become the strategic fulcrum of the Russian Navy, which will help alleviate the dilemma of the Black Sea Fleet.

So far, the Turkish Strait has long become the throat of the Black Sea countries, and the Montreux Convention is still the international legal basis for Black Sea navigation.

If Ukraine joins NATO, the Black Sea Fleet will lose its foothold in the Black Sea, and Russia's influence in the Middle East and Africa will be significantly reduced.

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