Today, Monday, June 13, based on the 10 working days of the refined oil price adjustment cycle, tomorrow night will be the first oil price adjustment at domestic gas stations in June. It is also the 11th round of oil price adjustment since 2022. According to the trend of international oil prices since the price adjustment cycle, we can tell you with certainty that tomorrow night (June 14), domestic oil prices will rise sharply again, ushering in the 10th oil price increase this year, and oil prices will hit a new high.
What is the reason? That is, the international oil price, which is linked to refined oil price adjustment, has risen too sharply and too obviously. We know that the benchmark for the last round of price adjustment was 113.72 (USD/barrel), but the current international oil price level is the latest closing price of US crude oil at US$120.67/barrel; ICE Brent oil futures 08 contract is 122.01 US dollars per barrel, which is also the direct reason why domestic oil prices will usher in the 10th increase in oil prices in 2022.
analyzes the current price adjustment situation. 92 gasoline at Sinopec , PetroChina and CNOOC gas stations nationwide is expected to rise by 0.23 yuan/liter. National 95 gasoline at Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC gas stations is expected to rise by 0.24 yuan/liter. National Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC gas station 98 gasoline prices are expected to rise by 0.25 yuan/liter. After the implementation of this price adjustment, the retail price of No. 95 gasoline at gas stations is one step closer to the "10 yuan era". So if you need to refuel, please pay attention. Please be sure to fill up your car before tomorrow night.
Regarding the analysis of the refined oil market, the focus of the refined oil market this week is mainly focused on four aspects. The first is that the military actions between Russia and Ukraine are still continuing, the Iran nuclear agreement is slowly advancing, and global gasoline consumption is improving in the summer, supply and demand The positive support for oil prices from both ends continues. Secondly, in terms of independent refineries this week, the Changyi Petrochemical unit restarted, and individual refineries continued to increase their burdens. Main refineries continued to increase their burdens. China's refinery capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the overall domestic supply continued to rise by 1.5%. about.
Then last week, the independent refinery’s gasoline production and sales rate exceeded 100, achieving destocking. The diesel production and sales rate was 97%. The inventory is slightly overstocked, but the inventory is still low, which provides obvious support for prices. Finally, with the arrival of summer vacation and high-temperature weather in various places, the demand for gasoline continues to be supported; the demand for diesel has begun to be suppressed by high temperatures and the rainy season, and replenishment is the main focus.
We can find that the current core logic of the refined oil market is that supply continues to rise and cost support continues. Gasoline is relatively strongly supported by demand. Diesel is mostly purchased for immediate needs. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will first rise and then fall this week, and the overall price will close up. . International crude oil may continue to rise this week, and gasoline and diesel cost-side support remains. Domestic gasoline and diesel production will continue to increase, with output from both independent refineries and main refineries rising by around 1.5%. Last week, the gasoline production and sales rate of independent refineries exceeded 100, achieving inventory reduction. The diesel production and sales rate was 97%. The inventory is slightly overstocked, but the inventory is still low, which has obvious support for prices. In addition, with the arrival of summer vacation and high-temperature weather in various places, the demand for gasoline will continue to be supported; the demand for diesel has begun to be suppressed by high temperatures and the rainy season, and demand for rigid demand will mainly be replenished. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will first rise and then fall this week, and the overall closing will be higher.
Refinery concerns come from three aspects: 1. Crude oil: under high inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may increase its efforts to raise interest rates, the US dollar is strengthening, and the U.S. stock market is declining, and international oil prices continue to fall. NYMEX crude oil futures 07 contract fell by US$0.84/barrel or 0.69% to 120.67; ICE Brent oil futures 08 contract fell by US$1.06/barrel or 0.86% to 122.01. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2207 rose 0.4 to 770.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 8.1 to 762.3 yuan/barrel in night trading. 2. Last week, the atmospheric and vacuum capacity utilization rate of Shandong independent refineries increased, and supply continued to increase. 3. On weekends, refinery gasoline shipments were average, while diesel shipments were better.
We can understand that the core logic is that crude oil opened lower, and it is not easy to push up in the short term. According to the author's statistics, the gasoline production and sales rate on the two weekends was basically the same, and the diesel production and sales rate exceeded one million. The better diesel shipments were mainly due to the high enthusiasm of midstream and downstream companies to take delivery of goods after a large price reduction during the weekend, and many refineries subsequently raised prices. However, crude oil prices fell sharply at the opening today, suppressing the favorable weekend shipments. It is expected that the mainstream prices of gasoline and diesel from independent refineries in Shandong will be stable today.
In addition, the Asian naphtha market was weak, suppressed by oversupply concerns and weak demand. Indian Oil Company sold 35,000 tons of naphtha for shipment from July 17 to 20, at a price slightly higher than Middle East FOB price of US$20 per ton. In the Asian gasoline market, demand in South Asia is strong. It is said that Indonesia may import a large amount of gasoline. Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical issued a tender to sell 250,000 barrels of gasoline per ship for two ships to be loaded from July 24-28 and July 29-August 2 respectively.
According to statistics released by the Japan Petroleum Association, as of the week of June 4, Japan's gasoline inventories were 1,616,762 cubic meters, a decrease of 59,500 cubic meters; naphtha inventories were 1,554,650 cubic meters, an increase of 35,200 cubic meters. Data released by Singapore International Enterprise Development Agency showed that in the week ending June 8, Singapore’s onshore light distillate inventory was 15.121 million barrels, a decrease of 139,000 barrels from the previous week. In the Singapore spot market, China National Petroleum Corporation sold 50,000 barrels of No. 92 gasoline to Equinor at $152.30 per barrel. The spot price of No. 95 gasoline in Singapore is US$160.12 per barrel; the spot price of No. 92 gasoline in Singapore is US$155.44 per barrel; and the spot price of naphtha in Singapore is US$82.55 per barrel.
In the Asian diesel market, strong profits have prompted refineries to increase diesel production. Diesel demand is firm in Australia and the Philippines due to refinery closures. In addition, freight costs to Europe are high, which inhibits Asian flows to the European market. Taiwan's China National Petroleum Corporation is selling 10ppm sulfur diesel for shipment in July, and the bid has been closed on Thursday. South Korea's SK Energy is expected to start selling July diesel spot sales this weekend or early next week. Japan's ENEOS and Cosmo Oil sell spot diesel for July shipment. In the Asian jet fuel market, the increasing demand for air transport supports the jet fuel market. It is expected that the summer travel season will further promote passenger demand for air transport.
Data released by International Enterprise Singapore showed that in the week ending June 8, Singapore’s onshore medium distillate oil inventories were 6.8 million barrels, a decrease of 2.8% from the previous week and a sharp decrease of 40% from the same period last year. Onshore medium distillate inventories in Singapore have averaged 7.5 million barrels per week so far this year, compared with an average of 11.8 million barrels per week last year. In the Singapore spot market, Vitol purchased 150,000 barrels of 10ppm sulfur diesel from Shell, which was $3.90 higher per barrel than in Singapore in June. The Singapore jet fuel market spot price is assessed at US$169.31 per barrel, and the diesel market spot price is US$180.58 per barrel.
Today is June 13. Finally, the author will take you to take a look at the latest 92 and 95 gasoline and diesel prices across the country on June 13, 2022. This is also the price of various types of gasoline and diesel in 31 provinces, cities and regions across the country today, as follows Prices are for reference only, please refer to actual transactions at local gas stations for specific retail prices.
