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As of February 7, 2022, as of press time, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures price was 90.81 US dollars/barrel, and the London Brent crude oil futures price was 92.19 US dollars/barrel. barrels, hitting a new high since October 2014.
Affected by the surge in oil prices , the oil sector has become popular across the board in the capital market.
As of the close of trading, the share price of PetroChina A shares with a market value of nearly one trillion yuan soared by 59.16% , and the share price of Sinopec increased by 54.06% . Many stocks such as China National Offshore Oilfield Services, Zhongman Petroleum, and China National Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd. hit their daily limits. Tongyuan Oil and Potential Hengxin once rose by more than 14%. The entire oil and gas exploration and services sector rose by 56.49%. While
is becoming popular, the curtain of a new business cycle in the oil and gas industry is slowly opening.
01
The oil industry has entered a new cycle
Thinking back to 2020, affected by the global epidemic, crude oil consumption demand has plummeted, and crude oil prices have collapsed.
In this year, giants collapsed, companies suffered huge losses, and global layoffs in the industry continued to unfold... It was not until the end of the year, with the breakthrough in the research and development of the new crown vaccine , and OPEC+'s decision to slow down the production increase, that oil prices gradually rose back to 50 USD/barrel level.
During this year, industry practitioners have truly experienced the bitterness of the plummeting oil prices.
Brent crude oil price in 2020-2022
Today, the "arrogant" oil price seems to be declaring that the opportunity for practitioners and the capital market to be proud is here.
From January 31 to February 4, the main contract of WTI crude oil futures rose by 5.30% to close at US$91.92/barrel; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose by 4.10% during the main contract and closed at US$92.52/barrel. So far, international oil prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks.
Not only that, some industry insiders even said that the price of US$90/barrel may be just the beginning.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil to reach $100 a barrel in the third quarter of this year. JPMorgan Chase 1 warned that Brent crude oil could rise to a price of ,125 per barrel..
In fact, it is very difficult to accurately predict the future. But as far as the current situation is concerned, oil prices not only have emotional support, but also have underlying support from the supply and demand side.
Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: "2022 will be a tight year for oil supply as energy demand recovers."
In the past January, although OPEC+ is working hard to recover However, the alliance's average daily crude oil production increased by only 210,000 barrels, far below OPEC's original production target of 400,000 barrels per day. This exposes to a certain extent the fact that initial investment was insufficient and OPEC+’s idle production capacity was continuously decreasing.
Some organizations predict that global oil consumption will reach a level of more than 100 million barrels per day by July this year. By then, the only countries with idle oil production capacity in the world will be Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, but their idle production capacity may only be the lowest level since 2018 - 2.3 million barrels per day.
02
Oil people will start busy mode
2022 is likely to be a big year for the oil industry.
The latest global oil and gas investment forecast for 2022 released by Rystad Energy, an energy consulting agency, shows that upstream oil investment in 2022 will increase from US$287 billion in 2021 to US$307 billion.
Among them, global shale oil oil and gas investment is expected to surge by 18% in 2022, to US$102 billion; offshore investment will increase by 7%, to US$155 billion; investment in traditional onshore projects will increase by 8%, to US$2,900 One hundred million U.S. dollars.
Foreign media data shows that despite the world's largest oil companies such as Shell, Total Energy, and Equinor having made commitments to net-zero drilling, they are talking more in public about renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics. Investment, but in fact they have not alienated oil, but quietly explored more crude oil and are still increasing drilling operations.
html In the week of February 4, Baker Hughes report showed that the number of active rigs in the United States increased by 3. This is the 15th consecutive week that the number of oil and natural gas rigs in the United States has increased. Among them, the total number of drilling rigs in the Permian Basin, the most active, is 294. Both Chevron and ExxonMobil stated in their quarterly results that they have major plans in this basin.For China, ensuring energy security has been a long-term undertaking. Three Barrel Oil " and Yanchang Petroleum have been strengthening exploration and development. This return of oil prices will pave the way for accelerated development of the oil and gas industry, and will allow shale oil Exploration and drilling in underdeveloped areas such as deep water and deep ground are cheaper and more confident. On January 11, CNOOC announced its 2022 business strategy and development plan, which shows that the total capital expenditure budget is RMB 90 billion - 100 billion yuan, and plans to drill 227 offshore exploration wells and 132 onshore unconventional exploration wells, and collect three-dimensional seismic data of approximately 17,000 square kilometers.
CNOOC expects that the company will have 13 new projects put into production in 2022, and the company’s net production will be. The target is 600 million barrels - 610 million barrels of oil equivalent.
html On January 13, at the 2022 work conference held by PetroChina and Sinopec, they both emphasized efforts to enhance energy supply security capabilities, and the crude oil industry chain focused on increasing reserves and stabilizing production. , the natural gas industry chain is on the rise.Perhaps we can boldly foresee that under the new era requirement of "the energy industry must be in our own hands" and the support of international oil prices, the busy cycle of the oil and gas industry has begun.
Disclaimer. : The above content is reproduced from Petroleum Link, and the content posted does not represent the position of this platform. National Energy Information Platform contact number: 010-65367702, email: [email protected], address: Jintai West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing. No. 2 People's Daily
