Putin Although Putin is not at home at the moment, the tension in the situation between Russia and Ukraine has not been eased. The Western media has been vigorously exaggerating Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine.
html On February 5, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov criticized the US Bloomberg News for publishing the content of "Russia's invasion of Ukraine", which was blatantly spreading rumors.Peskov said that it is precisely because news agencies in Washington and London constantly exaggerate the tension of the situation that make normal military movements on the Russia-Ukraine border extremely sensitive, which means that once a gun goes off, it may trigger Miscalculations on both sides led to avoidable large-scale war.
So, in 2022, will the cold war between Russia and Ukraine turn into a hot war? This requires three conditions, and the first condition is currently met.
First: Both sides have accumulated a large number of troops near the sensitive area Donbass . As long as something happens in Donbass, it may trigger a war between the two sides around Donbass.
Although Donbass belongs to the territory of Ukraine, the Donbass region has a deep connection with Russia. There are a large number of Russian people living here and the language they use is Russian. It is difficult for Russia to stand aside and watch.
The Donbass region is a strategic buffer between Russia and Ukraine, and is also an important strategic location in the greater Black Sea region. Donbass has always been a pivotal force component in the region. Not only is its geographical location important, Donbass is also rich in coal resources, educational resources and military industry resources.
After losing the Crimean Peninsula , Ukraine faced the separation of Donbass. It can be said that Ukraine has been in a state of distress in recent years. There is no way, Ukraine is geographically located in the middle zone between the two major forces of , NATO, and Russia. No matter who Ukraine favors, it will be suppressed, blocked and sanctioned by the other side. And it is really difficult for Ukraine to be neutral because Ukraine is not a monolithic country.
Especially when Ukraine turned to the West, the Russians would definitely be dissatisfied, so relying on Russia behind them, they dared to declare independence on their own. But when Ukraine falls to Russia, it will not be so easy for Ukraine to split, because Western Ukraine is not so close to NATO and the United States, but Eastern Ukraine is different. Their relationship with Russia is extraordinary.
Therefore, today's Ukraine has completely moved towards the West, which has caused dissatisfaction in Eastern Ukraine, and the separatist situation was born. In fact, at the beginning, there was no involvement of Russia, but they themselves did not want to follow Kiev and fall to the West.
The second condition: The effect of the United States and NATO in intimidating Russia is achieved
The United States and NATO have repeatedly advocated that Russia will invade Ukraine, simply to let Russia know the consequences. The United States has also said that as long as Russia sends troops to attack Ukraine, it will be subject to "hellish" sanctions. Although Russia is not afraid of US sanctions, it is impossible for Russia to take the initiative to trigger US sanctions.
The possible punitive measures against Russia by the United States and NATO in the future will make Russia tremble in the face of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The United States has a purpose in inciting tensions. It cannot spend so much effort without getting any benefits in the direction of Ukraine. This is not in line with the American style of doing things.
However, the United States is afraid that Russia will expand the war, so before the war occurs, the United States adopts intimidation methods. Moreover, there are NATO member states and EU standing with the United States, which will make Russia very cautious when facing crisis situations. However, when the United States' deterrence is effective, the United States may instigate Ukraine in the next step.
The third condition: Ukraine sends troops to attack Donbass
It can be said that as long as Ukraine sends troops to attack Donbass, then this cold war will directly transform into a hot war. So under what conditions will Ukraine send troops to Donbas? Very simply, it was when Russia did not dare to take the initiative to expand the war. Last year, Ukraine was about to attack Donbass, but Russia's deterrence caused Ukraine to brake urgently on the eve of the war.The President of Ukraine also dumped the burden directly on NATO. If he wants to solve the Donbass issue, letting Ukraine join NATO is the only way to solve it.
However, NATO cannot let Ukraine join. NATO is not stupid. If Ukraine joins NATO, it means that NATO will confront Russia because of Donbass, and the United States will have to face Russia's nuclear threat. Although Russia is not an opponent of the United States in the face of conventional war, Russia will not take the United States seriously in the field of nuclear weapons . Both countries are nuclear weapons superpowers, and no one can gain anything from a fight.
Therefore, the United States will definitely avoid bringing its relationship with Russia to this point, and it will be impossible for Ukraine to join NATO if this situation does not happen. But as long as the United States prevents Russia from expanding the war when Ukraine attacks Donbass, then the United States will dare to encourage Ukraine to attack Donbass, and the result will not matter.
Why does it say that the result is not important? Because the positions of the United States and the European Union are still different. The EU is afraid that Russia will become bigger and that Russia will really take over Ukraine. But the United States is clear, and Russia cannot take the initiative to attack Ukraine. But if relations between the two parties ease or the status quo is not broken, there will be no benefit for the United States. As long as Ukraine attacks Donbas, the EU will be afraid, and the situation in Europe as a whole will be particularly beneficial to the United States.
Because Ukraine is fighting Donbass and Russia carries out limited intervention, the scale of the war will not expand and the United States can dominate the situation. At worst, Donbass will return to what it is now. But as long as there is a fight, the EU will become more dependent on the United States, and NATO member states will pay more attention to the NATO platform, so the United States' hegemony can continue. This is just a way for the United States to inject fresh blood into NATO. As for Ukraine, life and death are not what the United States cares about at all. The United States provides a few dollars of aid to Ukraine not to let Ukraine do big things, make trouble, scare the rich people in the European Union, and let Ukraine do something big. From now on, their ultimate goal is to be obedient and pay the protection fee.
So, is the current situation really developing as the United States expected? not necessarily. Because of the continued incitement by the United States, the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany are now rushing to meet with Putin to discuss the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Because they know very well that even if the deterrent effect of the United States is achieved, no one knows whether Putin will play according to the chess game preset by Biden . If he is not careful, he may go from Donbas to third place. The Nieper River is over. Although Russia does not have the ability to occupy it, it still has the ability to cripple it.
As for the United States, the United States wants the situation to be tense. The tense relations between Europe and Russia are in the best interests of the United States. Therefore, as long as the United States is a superpower, it is impossible to fundamentally improve relations between Western Europe and Russia. Once relations between Western Europe and Russia are improved, what is the significance of NATO's existence? Once it loses NATO, how can the United States station troops in Western Europe? Once the troops stationed in Europe cannot be maintained, who will have the final say in Europe? Will it still act based on the face of the United States?
