In recent years, as China's comprehensive national strength has become stronger and its international voice has gradually increased, relations between China and the United States have continued to deteriorate. On July 23, 2020, US Secretary of State Pompeo delivered an Iron Curtain speech. On July 24, the United States immediately closed the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, and Sino-US relations rapidly deteriorated. From July 25 to August 2, the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of my country held a live-fire drill in the waters west of the Leizhou Peninsula. The flames of war are spreading to the military field, and the competition is unfolding in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. China and the United States are gearing up. According to this situation, will a war between China and the United States be imminent in the next five years?
At present, the possibility of a large-scale military war between China and the United States is extremely low. On the morning of November 16, 2021, the President of our country had a video meeting with the President of the United States Biden and communicated on the development of Sino-US relations. During the meeting, he proposed the concept of "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation." Principles of Sino-US exchanges. The "peaceful coexistence" agreement reached by the two heads of state this time is conducive to the easing of Sino-US relations to some extent.
Then why is it said that Sino-US relations have taken a turn for the worse?
As early as 2017, after U.S. President Trump came to power, he launched a series of unprecedented trade wars against China. With the development of technology and global informatization, there will be wars of public opinion, technology wars, and discourse rights. The fight for... Sino-US relations will continue to be tense. In May 2018, Trump approved the renaming of the Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command to connect the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The United States joined forces with India, Japan, Australia and other countries to dispatch two aircraft carrier battle groups to shuttle back and forth. In the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea. In the months after Trump and Biden ran for president, Trump repeatedly used Sino-US relations to divert the attention of the American people, trying to use the situation between China and the United States to win the election, causing the situation between China and the United States to become increasingly tense. At the same time, as the world's two largest economies, China and the United States are bound to have many differences as they continue to develop.
- There are differences between the two countries on the establishment of the trade system
The interdependence between trade has always been the ballast stone of the relationship between China and the United States. In recent years, with the rapid development of trade between the two countries and economic globalization, the relationship between China and the United States has trade ties become closer. But this does not mean that there are no obstacles to economic and trade transactions between the two countries. In fact, the economic and trade relationship between China and the United States is an asymmetrical interdependence. Judging from the current situation, our country is more dependent on the United States, and this asymmetrical interdependence has prompted the United States to "suppress" Our country has taken the initiative in economic and trade development, and our country is in a passive response situation. Especially after Trump came to power, he proposed a series of improvement decisions for U.S. economic and trade development, such as focusing on returning to real industries and requiring large manufacturing companies to return home. The large-scale trade war has made the relationship between China and the United States increasingly rigid.
At present, there are differences between China and the United States on trade deficit and the establishment of the world trading system. As the world's two largest trading economies, the core of many confrontations between the two countries is the formulation of global trade rules and the competition for trading partners. As the former "world trade hegemon", the United States has taken the initiative to launch a new policy offensive to seize the opportunity for trade and economic development in the face of the continuous loss of its own country's trade advantages. As a China that is rising strongly, our country not only focuses on its own development, but is also committed to promoting the construction of the world trade system.
At the same time, the United States is highly concerned about the asymmetric trade dependence between China and the United States. It believes that this trade relationship between China and the United States is the main reason for the high unemployment rate and the wide gap between the rich and the poor in the United States. However, our country has always insisted on looking at trade issues from an international perspective and looking at trade issues historically and comprehensively.
- The United States’ long-term intervention in China’s national sovereignty
Since ancient times, Taiwan has been an integral part of our country’s territory, and compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have jointly promoted the prosperity and development of the motherland.After the defeat of the Sino-Japanese War, Japan forced the Qing government to sign the "Treaty of Shimonoseki" and ceded Taiwan to Japan. At this point, Japan carried out colonial rule over Taiwan for half a century. This historical background provides the soil for the emergence of various "Taiwan independence" forces. After World War II, the United States' ambitions towards Taiwan continued to grow, and it repeatedly intervened in the Taiwan issue and interfered in China's internal affairs. 's so-called "Taiwan card" has never stopped. Since the Democratic Progressive Party came back to power, Tsai Ing-wen and others have refused to recognize the "192 Consensus" and are willing to become political tools of the United States. All these are not conducive to the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue.
It is not difficult to see that the core purpose of the US authorities is to use Taiwan's influence to contain the development of the mainland and use Taiwan as a medium to blackmail the Chinese mainland into making concessions. For the United States, the most ideal situation is for the mainland to fight a protracted war with Taiwan. On the one hand, it can make some war profits from the middle, and on the other hand, it can also curb the development of the mainland. At present, the U.S. authorities have separated the development of mainland China from the development of Taiwan, China, in various decisions, and in disguise have turned the relationship between mainland China and Taiwan into "one China, one Taiwan." Taiwan is China's territory, and our country obviously cannot accept this assumption.
- American manufacturing faces fierce competition
In fact, as early as Obama was in office, the United States had already begun to change its growth model and was committed to calling back the real industry. In the past, the distinguishing feature of the U.S. economic system was the imbalance between the virtual economy and the real economy. During the ten years before and after Obama took office, the U.S. economy showed a large economic bubble, and the domestic manufacturing industry was basically stagnant. Its industrial output value and industrial growth rate were also low. Continuously declining. This huge economic illusion of was clearly seen in the financial crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008. Obama officially proposed to change the previous consumption model of using excessive credit consumption to stimulate rapid domestic economic growth, and instead to develop real industries. The real industries here mainly refer to manufacturing. The subsequent presidents also took steps to promote the recovery of the U.S. real economy.
Judging from official data released by the United States, the U.S. manufacturing index has exceeded 50 for several consecutive months. At the same time, the number of new jobs in real industries such as domestic manufacturing has increased significantly. In October 2021 alone, the number of new jobs in the United States The number of people reached 571,000. In recent years, the manufacturing industry in the United States has been recovering rapidly, faster than the domestic tertiary industry . It can be seen that through the relay of successive presidents, the real economy of the United States has grown significantly.
As Jiang Yong said: "The transformation of the United States is bound to pose a challenge to many countries, because if the United States wants to maintain its original market share, it can only compete with other countries. After all, the cake is only so big." China, as the world's largest manufacturing industry As a big country, its economic development is bound to have an impact on the development of the United States. Development conflicts between the two countries are inevitable.
It can be seen that the tension in the relationship between China and the United States is the result of many factors. There are many differences between the two countries in trade exchanges, political issues and industrial development.
The current attitudes of the two countries towards Sino-US relations are also slightly different. The United States’ pursuit of its own world status will naturally restrict the development of other countries. Since the Cold War , the United States has used its international status and national strength to directly or indirectly interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. Regarding the rise of China, on the one hand, the United States promotes the "China threat theory" around the world and arbitrarily exaggerates the threats posed by China's strong development. On the other hand, it continues to spread the "China collapse theory" and other remarks in an attempt to badmouth China. . The United States usually adopts "restrictive" measures on issues related to China in order to control China's position in the world order and limit China's rise.
From China's perspective, China respects the world as a pluralistic unity, respects different countries and the development paths they choose, always adheres to the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs in diplomacy, and has always adhered to the principle of peaceful coexistence with the United States.However, in recent years, with the changes in the world development pattern and the growth of our country's strength, our country's attitude towards the United States has begun to change from a firm "peaceful coexistence" to "struggle for peace." Just as the president emphasized in his speech : "The Chinese people do not stir up trouble and are not afraid of it. In the face of any difficulties and risks, their calves will not shake and their backs will not bend. The Chinese nation cannot be intimidated or crushed!" Now, we have strong capital and any hegemony resistance, we love peace. But he is never afraid of struggle.
Judging from the current situation, various subjective and objective conditions jointly promote China and the United States to maintain peaceful exchanges.
The high degree of dependence between China and the United States. Whether it is viewed from the historical perspective that China has become a permanent member of the Security Council, or from the practical perspective of the twists and turns in Sino-US relations surrounding the Taiwan issue, the high degree of dependence between China and the United States has played out in the process of peaceful exchanges between the two countries. plays an important role. In the context of today's economic globalization, the degree of interdependence between the two countries has further increased.
China’s international status has risen significantly. In recent years, China's political, economic, and military strength have been comprehensively improved in all aspects, China's international influence has been significantly enhanced, and its international status has been unprecedentedly improved, which has greatly enhanced China's weight in the world. Although China's development will stimulate the United States and trigger the negative effects of the United States' various containment of China. But in comparison, China's development has a positive effect on the improvement of Sino-US relations. If China does not have the backing of strong strength, it will be impossible to propose diplomatic proposals such as peaceful coexistence with the United States. The strengthening of my country's international voice has also prompted the United States to pay more attention to China's power, which has weakened the arrogance of American hegemony to a certain extent.
The vision of the international community. China and the United States are the largest developing countries, the largest developed countries, and the world's first and second largest economies. Their economic development is related to the world economic trend and development. A healthy and stable Sino-US relationship not only serves the interests of both countries , which is also the common vision of the international community. As early as 2017, during the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States, experts from all over the world paid close attention to and fully affirmed the meeting. Both countries will benefit from peace and lose from conflict.
At present, it seems that the relationship between the two countries has not yet reached the stage of a military war, but we cannot have too optimistic expectations about the relationship between the two countries. Fierce competition still exists.
As the world’s largest economy, the United States’ development strength cannot be underestimated. The United States has less than 5% of the world's population, but it has abundant resources, a vast territory and a huge economy. It also has sufficiently advanced military equipment and strong international influence. Although in the 21st century, some experts continue to predict that the United States will "decline." But overall, this decline is not absolute. In the next few decades, the United States may still be stronger than other countries.
From a geographical advantage point of view, the United States does not border Europe and Asia . This unique geographical advantage often allows the United States to "stand alone" in some world wars. At the same time, the United States enjoys two oceans, making it in border territories There are no disputes and no forces that could threaten its national sovereignty.
From the perspective of economic strength, the U.S. economy is still developing rapidly. According to the announcement released by the International Monetary Fund in 2017, the United States' economic aggregate ranks first in the world, three times that of China, which ranks second, and its per capita GDP is six times that of China. In the 2021 IMF estimate, the U.S. economy is still the largest at 22.94 trillion yuan, and China is estimated to be 16.86 trillion U.S. dollars, still second in the world. It can be seen that the size of the U.S. economy is still online.
From the perspective of technical equipment, after the Cold War, the United States continues to lead the world in technological development, such as the YAL-1A air-based laser weapon system, "Ford" class aircraft carrier , AGM-183 air-launched hypersonic missiles, etc. Its weapons and equipment are also far ahead of other countries.
In addition, the United States' land policy is also one of its advantages. Cheap land, lower taxes than China, and a relatively relaxed development environment have all prompted Chinese entrepreneurs to enter the U.S. market and invest in and build factories in the United States.
It can be seen that the dominant position of the United States is still significant. uses "recession" to describe its development more appropriately. During a certain historical period, the development of the United States did experience a certain decline, such as epidemic prevention measures during the epidemic, but in the long run, this decline will not necessarily lead to the decline of American society. decline. Relying on its strength advantage and the constant adjustment of various domestic and foreign policies, the United States is still likely to maintain its hegemony.
Since the 21st century, my country's vigorous development has attracted world attention. First of all, the increasing strength of developing countries has also prompted more countries to support peace, join our camp, and become trading partners with our country. Secondly, the "One Belt, One Road" initiative proposed by our country has also contributed China's strength to local development in the world and increased our country's international influence. Finally, our country has become an important force in the international community and actively builds a community with a shared future for mankind.
Today's world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, and domestic development and reform tasks are arduous. Against this background, while promoting domestic economic development, our country is still promoting global governance and helping the global economy move in a direction that is beneficial to the development of all countries, This kind of development policy will also be supported by more countries and will be more conducive to our country's search for trading partners.
The cake is only so big, but more and more people are sharing the cake. my country's various multilateral policies will inevitably stimulate the United States to take various actions. The future development of the two countries will still be more characterized by competition than cooperation.
The Chinese people love peace, long for peace, and have always been committed to contributing "Chinese power" to the peaceful coexistence between China and the United States. However, the Chinese people will never be afraid of struggle. Today, our country's comprehensive strength is no longer what it used to be, and China is more confident and confident in fighting against various hegemonic forces. Mutual respect leads to win-win cooperation. But if it continues to interfere in China's internal affairs and challenge China's bottom line, China will never back down and compromise. borrows a sentence from Chairman Mao: "How long will it take? I don't think we should make the decision. In the past, it was Truman , and in the future it will be Eisenhower, or some future president of the United States. It is up to them, that is to say, they Fight for as long as you want, until you are completely victorious!"
