Biden has been implementing the so-called "Indo-Pacific Strategy" since he came to power, and Taiwan is one of the links. In recent times, exchanges between the United States and Taiwan seem to be "warming up". US State Department spokesman Price threatened on the 1st of this month that he would consider opportunities for mutual visits between senior officials who would consider promoting bilateral relations between the United States and Taiwan in the future. In this regard, Shenzhen TV & Direct News reporter interviewed the former director of the Taipei Office of the American Association in Taiwan Bao Doug .
Currently the US Vice President of the Carnegie International Peace Foundation , Doug Bao is very familiar with China affairs and has always been regarded by the US political circle as one of the most influential figures in the US State Department's policy toward China. In the 1980s, Doug Bao briefly served in the U.S. Embassy in China, and since 1991 he served as Special Assistant to the National Security Council and Senior Director of Asia-Pacific Affairs of the Bush administration. He is the highest-level official in charge of Asia-Pacific affairs within the National Security Council and directly participates in decision-making. From 2002 to 2006, Doug Bao served as the unofficial representative of the United States and served as director of the Taipei Office of the American Association in Taiwan.
■ The Biden administration’s real China policy will be issued in half a year or a year
Last month, the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the United States held in Alaska Anchorage in the United States on 18th. It is not only the first face-to-face meeting between China and the United States since Biden took office as US President, but also the first high-level contact between the Chinese and US heads of state after the New Year’s Eve call. Its importance is self-evident. Doug Bao believes that the substantial achievements of this Sino-US dialogue are to repair the damage caused by the last stage of Trump's administration. For example, the two sides exchanged views on a series of issues that had damaged the relationship between the two countries, such as restoring journalists' visas, reopening and closing consulates, and normalizing student exchanges. Although these issues have not been properly resolved, it is a good signal that China and the United States agree to discuss.
China-US high-level strategic dialogue has also made the future trend of China-US relations the focus of public attention. At the beginning of the dialogue, China and the United States started a fierce confrontation, conveying to the outside world that the era of the United States' fingers against China has ended. This also makes many people pessimistic about the next trend of Sino-US relations, but Doug Bao told Shenzhen TV & Direct News reporters that he remains generally optimistic about the future Sino-US relations.
He pointed out that when dealing with Chinese officials in the past, there were such conversations in private. Of course, they were not in public. This time they were just taken to the table, so it made everyone feel abnormal. He believes that it is fair to say that the Biden administration does intend to implement a tough policy towards China. Of course, it should be noted that during the US presidential election last year, Biden's main focus has always been domestic issues in the United States, so if Biden wants to pass relevant domestic legislation, he needs to be supported by the Republican Party. To ensure support from Congressional Republicans, we must maintain a tough attitude towards China. Once Biden successfully passes these domestic legislation, it means that the review period for US-China relations will end, and the real China policy will be formulated in half a year or a year. The United States recognizes one-China policy on Taiwan issue, which Doug Bao believes will help maintain peace.
■ The United States and Japan "2+2" joint statement that there is no breakthrough in the Taiwan-related part
In addition, the United States is also constantly taking action in the international community. Not long ago, the United States and Japan held a "2+2" talk in Tokyo. The key content of this US-Japan talks pointed at China, once again exaggerating the US-Japan military alliance, and also agreed to strengthen military cooperation between the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region. It is worth noting that the United States and Japan have adopted a tough attitude this time. They not only criticized China many times during the dialogue, but also publicly mentioned the Taiwan issue. The two sides confirmed that they will cooperate closely when an emergency occurs in Taiwan.
Regarding the content related to Taiwan in the "2+2" joint statement of the United States and Japan, some green media hyped that the US move sent a signal that it would strongly support Taiwan. In response, Doug Bao said that this statement was not breakthrough, because as early as 2005, the United States and Japan also exchanged and consulted on the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and also issued a similar statement at that time.
■ Tsai Ing-wen should not be an "accidental maker"
The outside world has also noticed that the connection between some politicians in Taiwan and the United States has gradually become more prevalent recently. Taiwan's so-called "friendly countries" Palau President Hui Shuren led a delegation to visit Taiwan at the end of last month. US Ambassador to Palau Ni John also visited Taiwan, becoming the first senior US official to openly visit Taiwan after Biden took office. Doug Bao judged that this was some kind of test carried out by the Biden administration on the Taiwan issue.
He said that in the past 15 years, after all, not many people want to see more official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan. But just a few days ago, the US ambassador to Palau accompanied the President of Palau to visit Taipei, which is unusual. It seems to be a test of China's bottom line by the US official, unprecedented and may cause a strong reaction from Beijing.
As we all know, the United States has adopted a strategic vague strategy on the Taiwan issue for many years. Specifically, if one day the mainland is forced to adopt a non-peaceful approach to achieve unity, the United States will form a so-called "deterrence" situation by uncertain whether to intervene. Doug Bao told Shenzhen Satellite TV & Direct News reporter that the "deterrence" target of strategic ambiguity also includes Taiwan. They want to send a signal to Taipei, don't think we will defend you forever, the United States has not issued such a short check.
Bao Doug emphasized that as the two largest economies in the world, the stability of Sino-US relations is crucial to countries around the world, and the Taiwan issue is the most sensitive issue in Sino-US relations. He specifically reminded the Taiwanese authorities that it is very important for Taiwan to be an accident maker. Because there is nothing we can do to solve many accidents. He said that surprises them is not a good idea and has serious consequences, both opponents and friends. He believes that Tsai Ing-wen has always been cautious in personality and she will understand what she needs to do.
