A new round of oil price control window is about to open on October 19. The four consecutive rises in oil prices may already be waving to us not far away. With this regulation, gasoline in parts of North China, South China, and Southwest China will once again enter the "8 yuan" era after five years. Analysts at Zhuochuang Information also believe that this round of retail price increases for refined oil products is a foregone conclusion.
Specifically, according to Zhuochuang's calculations, on the seventh domestic working day of closing on October 15, the reference crude oil change rate was 4.42%, corresponding to an increase of 192 yuan/ton in gasoline and diesel, equivalent to a price increase, No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 gasoline Diesel prices will be increased by 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan per liter.
reporters found that according to the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, during the pricing period from September 30 to yesterday, the highest retail price of No. 92 gasoline in Chengdu was 7.87 yuan/liter. Calculated based on this degree of increase, Chengdu is also one of the regions that has exceeded 8.
In the first three price adjustment cycles, refined oil prices have been rising. If the oil price in the next cycle is calculated based on the increase of 192 yuan/ton, after the "four consecutive increases" in oil prices on the 19th, the cumulative increase of these four times of gasoline per liter is 0.59 yuan. When consumers fill up a tank of 92# gasoline, it will be more than It cost nearly 30 yuan.
When it comes to the price of refined oil products, Hainan has always been among the best. At present, the oil price in Hainan has broken through 9 yuan, and even breaking through 10 yuan is no longer impossible. According to a Hainan netizen’s Weibo post on October 15, at that time, the price of refined oil had reached 9.52 yuan/liter.
According to Caijing.com, on April 14, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting Hainan's Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and Opening Up" which pointed out that the number of motor vehicles should be scientifically and rationally controlled, and the promotion of new energy vehicles and energy-saving and environmentally friendly vehicles should be accelerated. During the Boao Forum for Asia in April 2018, Hainan Governor Shen Xiaoming even proposed that Hainan will use new energy vehicles throughout the island by 2030.
What is driving high oil prices? The reporter found that many analysts believe that the continued rise in international crude oil prices is an important reason for the increase in refined oil prices.
According to statistics from China Petroleum Network, international oil prices have risen by about 20% since the beginning of this year, and are expected to rise further. On the one hand, US oil sanctions on Iran are coming. Once Iranian oil is sanctioned, global crude oil supply will decrease and oil prices will rise. On the other hand, if the recent "disappearance" incident of Saudi reporter is not effectively resolved, it will also push up oil prices to US$100 per barrel.
In the view of Cao Xinchuan, an analyst at the Research and Development Department of Huaxin Securities, we should be wary of the impact of rising oil prices on overall prices. Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has also driven up the prices of midstream and downstream chemicals and refined oil products, which in turn has pushed up the growth rate of PPI. Judging from the current situation in the Gulf, international oil prices are likely to rise further.
(Editor: Li Wei)
