The recent lifting of sanctions on Iran has pushed international crude oil futures to a 12-year low. A further drop in oil prices below US$20 per barrel is no longer out of reach, and oil prices continue to set lower limits. People can't help but want to complain about oil, when will you become like a man!
The comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue began to be implemented on January 16. The West, including the United States, has lifted sanctions against Iran's nuclear project. U.S. President Obama delivered a speech on the 17th praising the implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement, saying that a strong and confident United States can advance national security interests through "direct contact" with the Iranian government and that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons in the future. As soon as this news came out, oil prices fell another 2.49% from the low level.
Previously, the king of commodities, Gartman, said that falling oil prices may begin to become a new normal (foreigners will use the new normal...). Wall Street has revealed that oil prices will fall to $20. It turns out that the author still doesn't believe it. After all, 20 US dollars is not enough for the production cost. Besides, if the oil price drops to 20 US dollars, can Russia agree?
But the fact is that on the supply side, Saudi Arabia and Russia were desperate not to reduce production, and then the United States released the oil monster Iran. On the demand side, the world economy is not performing well this year, and China, the world's largest oil importer, is still reducing production capacity. As a result, the oil price successfully reached 27 US dollars a few days ago.
What does it mean when oil prices drop to this level? It means that gasoline is already cheaper than mineral water...
China National Petroleum Corporation’s latest announcement pointed out that China National Petroleum Corporation will reduce the prices of various gasoline and diesel products by NT$1.1 per liter starting from 0:00 a.m. on the 18th based on the floating oil price mechanism. 92 and 95 unleaded gasoline is less than 20 yuan (approximately RMB 3.9) per liter, which is cheaper than mineral water.
The Middle East is the world's largest crude oil exporting region, exporting 850.1 million metric tons of crude oil in 2014. Other major crude oil exporting countries include Russia with 294.8 million metric tons, West Africa with 213.9 million metric tons, and Canada with 148.6 million metric tons. However, since mid-2014, due to the plummeting crude oil prices, the currency values of many countries on the list have also suffered sharp declines. The Canadian dollar mentioned above is a "suffering brother" closely linked to the fate of crude oil prices.
As another major crude oil exporter, Venezuela is also experiencing hyperinflation. Venezuela, which relies on oil for 95% of its exports, is undoubtedly another "hardcore brother" of crude oil. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela's GDP may shrink by 10% in 2015, setting the world's largest economic growth decline, and inflation will reach an astonishing 157%.
In fact, both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil have fallen by more than 20% since the beginning of this year. Global growth concerns, warm weather and concerns about OPEC's insistence on not cutting production have created a perfect storm in the crude oil market. The lifting of sanctions on Iran over the weekend was the last straw, further exacerbating concerns about a global supply glut. In addition, China's depreciation of the yuan has increased the country's crude oil import costs, thus weakening expectations for crude oil demand in the world's second-largest economy. Therefore, it is powerless to hope that oil prices will change their weakness and rebound.
Fortunately, although the oil price has dropped sharply, it does not affect our operational investment. Perhaps this gives us a clearer direction. For example, around 8 o'clock last night, the author in the VIP real position group suggested entering the market with a short order of 205. At around 10 o'clock, the profit limit was 198 and the profit was 6 points. A customer with a capital of 1 million operated 30 lots of short positions and made a profit of nearly 180,000 yuan!
Let’s talk about placing orders next, regarding high-level long orders: If the long order is a short position and the point is not too high, you can wait for the market to rebound to a high level and then leave the market with a small loss, or you can cut it off decisively and follow the trend. If it is a heavy position, it is recommended to reduce part of the position on the rise first, and then set a stop loss at the current support position and a take profit in the pressure zone.
If it is a short position at a low position: For short-term positions, if the position is near the high point or the position is good, it is recommended to get out of the position and go long on the backhand to cover the loss; for the position of the short position is not good, it is recommended to cut the meat directly on the rise. , not stopping the loss before was already a taboo, but now once the market trend gets stronger, if you have to resist hard, you will only get deeper and deeper.
Many people think that if millions of people are involved in this market, they can do whatever they want, and they feel that they are sure to win. I feel like I'm just buying the bottom and going long. Even if I don't lose millions of dollars, there's no need to panic. Indeed, in the volatile market of spot crude oil, it is not difficult to operate with a light position of several million and operate without loss for dozens of consecutive orders without losing money. When this investment philosophy and operation method are incorrect, it is not difficult to take orders. Depending on the market situation, you will be lucky if you get it right once, but if the trend goes against you and you fail to take timely measures to avoid risks, it will be enough to cause you to be injured at least, or completely wiped out at worst. However, in this market that can easily reach trillions, millions of funds are only a small base. It is not advisable to try to resist the trend, which is tantamount to resigning yourself to fate. Regardless of the size of the fund, investing still requires abiding by the rules of the market and planning an investment plan. Based on correct investment techniques, strict implementation of a correct system and sound investment philosophy, only long-term and stable profits can be achieved.
Author WeChat fayeleayo
