Although the recurrence of the epidemic in early September caused the catering industry to be on the slow recovery, overall, as the catering industry continues to improve month-on-month and the cost of packaging materials declines, the release of Volkswagen's profits is still expected. Recommended [Beer Leader, Qingdao Beer Heavy Beer Yanjing China Resources Budweiser], [Fast Freezer, Anjing Qianwei Ligao], [Seasoning Anqi ], [Snack Leader, Yanjin Juewei Qiao]
Beer: The short-term winter World Cup may slightly help the off-season sales; the recovery of medium-term catering can accelerate structural upgrades; the decline in medium- and long-term costs can bring greater profit elasticity. The sectors are recommended as a whole.
Qingdao Beer: volume +10%, ASP 10+%, revenue 20+%, profit growth is faster than revenue growth
Chong Beer: income is higher than single digits ~10%, profit is 15-20%, short-term sales are still under pressure due to limited consumption scenarios.
Quick freeze: September-October enters the peak season for fast freeze sales and stocking, and the recovery of catering banquets during the National Day peak season has driven the recovery of demand on the B-side. It is recommended to pay attention to targets with high certainty in the third quarter and improvement of fundamentals. It is recommended to Anjing, Qianwei, and secondly to Ligao.
Anjing Food: It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 27% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders will increase by more than 60% year-on-year. The main business is expected to grow by about 15% in September, and the stocking capacity is tight during the peak season. Mr. Frozen Products sold about 6,000w in September, and sauerkraut fish has become Mr. Frozen Products' No. 1 single product.
Qianwei Central Kitchen : It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 20-25% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders will increase by about 20% year-on-year. Benefiting from the recovery of stores such as the B-end , Parkson , and adding new product imports to increase revenue. The small B-end benefited from the recovery of banquets from September to October, and is expected to maintain a growth of around 30%.
Ligao Food: It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders will be about -22% year-on-year. The company's 3Q cake room channel pressure remains, and the company actively explores Meituan , Pupu and catering channels, contributing to the increase in revenue.
Snacks: The sector has entered its peak season, and the channel diversification trend is obvious. It is recommended to have high certainty in the third quarter and the bottom improvement targets, Yanjin, Qiaqia, Juewei.
Yanjinpuzi : It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by about 30% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 80 million, an increase of 180% year-on-year. The company's 9.9 mass sales are constantly enriched, and grassroots surveys show that the distribution and sales are good, and the monthly sales in online channels exceed 5,000,000 yuan. In addition, snacks are very busy and have entered nearly 20 SKUs, with monthly sales of more than 2,000,000, and have cooperated with the leading snack mass seller chain.
Qiaqia Food : It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 15-20% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders will increase by about 5% year-on-year. It is expected that the national sunflower will increase by 10-15% year-on-year in September and the nut will increase by about 40% year-on-year. From the perspective of terminal grassroots, Guazi KA's terminal price has basically completed the price increase, with the terminal price increase of about 15%, but most KAs still have discount promotions.
Juewei Food : It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders will reach -65% year-on-year. The company's single-store revenue improved month-on-month from July to August, and the epidemic in September was repeatedly affected. The cost side is currently fluctuating at a high level, and 4Q is expected to improve.
seasonings: 3Q22 revenue growth continues month-on-month 2Q, and some companies show high performance elasticity under low base. Looking ahead to the long term, soybean costs are expected to weaken at the end of the year or the beginning of next year, and molasses costs may decline in the medium and long term; in addition, if the catering scenarios recover, there is more room for revenue increase in the condiment industry.
Haitian Flavor Industry: It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by ~9% and profit will increase by ~8% in the same period. The cost side is expected to be under pressure to further increase in 3Q. Currently, the channel feedback is about 3M in inventory. Haitian B-end accounts for about 55%. B-end consumption pursues cost-effectiveness. The company has actively promoted the construction of C-end in the past two years. We speculate that the influence of online public opinion on the C-end is limited, and it is recommended to actively seize the opportunity of long-term layout.
Zhongju High-tech : It is expected that the main business revenue of 3Q seasonings will increase by 15% year-on-year, profit will increase by 50% year-on-year, and channel inventory will be rational. The continued implementation of equity issues will form a catalysis. The real estate business is not considered at present. The current market value corresponds to the valuation of the seasoning business of 42/32X.
Qianhe Flavor Industry : It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 15-20% year-on-year. It is expected that the recent additive incident will drive online and offline sales in the short term, with online sales growth rates of -2.6%/+28% respectively as of 9.25/10.2. The current market value corresponds to the valuation of 49/37X.
Angel Yeast : It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by ~15%. Recently, the company mentioned that the cost of molasses in the new pressing season may be in a downward trend. We estimate that a decrease in the cost of molasses per ton can release profit elasticity of 7kw. It is recommended to pay attention to the new round of molasses purchase prices.
Fuling Pickles : It is expected that revenue will remain the same, profit will increase by 85% year-on-year, mainly due to price increases + downward dividends for costs. The company is currently in the period of adjustment for changing packaging and destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the increase in the main business volume of pickled vegetables and the growth of the second curve.
Day Flavor Food: It is expected that 3Q revenue will increase by 50%+ year-on-year. During the epidemic in Chengdu, as a supply-guarantee enterprise, the impact of production and logistics is limited, the demand on the C-end is positive, and the B-end is expected to have a significant impact, with 1H22 Big B accounting for 9%. It is expected that the impact of cost fluctuations on gross profit margin in the third quarter is less than 1%.
Baoli Food: Online revenue in July/8/September increased by 130/33/86% year-on-year, and it is expected that the C-end business will increase by 74% year-on-year.
Dairy products: The sales growth rate of dairy leading financial products' statements reached a high unit-double digit in July-August. In September, the epidemic spread in many places, and the short-term sales growth rate was under pressure from July-August month-on-month; the social milk price at the cost of 3Q fell by nearly 5% (corresponding to a gross profit margin increase of 1.7ppt), and supermarkets showed that the ASP of white milk in July-August fell by 0.6% (corresponding to a gross profit margin decrease of 0.4%). We expect the 3Q gross profit margin of dairy companies to increase year-on-year.
Yili : In the short term, the high base growth rate of 3Q performance has a certain pressure. We expect the company's 3Q revenue/profit growth rate in the 3Q statement is about 16%/8%, respectively, and the endogenous 8-9%/low unit number respectively; in the long term, the current valuation is at a low valuation range, corresponding to next year's PE 17x.
Miaokelando : Due to the repeated epidemic situation, the consumption performance of optional cheese sticks has been under pressure; supermarkets show that the company's cheese sales growth rate from July to August is 20% (vs1H22 38%, the channel growth rate may be deviated, for reference trends only), and we expect the 3Q company's revenue/profit growth rate to be 30%-40%/120-140% respectively (low base). If the epidemic recovers, cheese consumption is expected to benefit.
Soft Drinks :3Q22 The overall sales of the industry are better under the influence of hot weather in most regions, and the third quarter recorded a significant improvement month-on-month period, especially packaging water, tea beverages and energy beverages may show stronger elasticity. Since the price of PET is still at a relatively high level, there is still some pressure on the industry's cost side.
Nongfu Spring : Continuing the better performance of 1H22, with revenue exceeding double digits in the third quarter.
