A few days before National Day, when capital was still immersed in the joy of the dovish signal of Federal Reserve , the reality is that the trend is becoming more and more complex, and the US non-agricultural sector exceeded expectations. The probability of hiking rate 275 basis points in November soaring to 82%. At the same time, the US unemployment rate rate is only 3.5%, which is an extremely low unemployment rate. Against this background, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more unscrupulously. Therefore, under the expectation of continued forced rate hikes, the US stock collapsed on Friday night, and the decline was unimaginable. At the same time, the news has also been very unfavorable in the past two days. Against the backdrop of the further expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the continued surge of international oil prices, and the continued surge of US dollar index , the probability of global financial crisis has further increased.
1. U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, the US dollar index rose sharply
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September non-agricultural data, with 263,000 new non-agricultural employment, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which was better than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to a low of nearly 50 years again. Such a low unemployment rate has further encouraged the cycle of the Federal Reserve's forced rate hikes. Members of FOMC also said in September that they expected the U.S. unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% in 2023 and remain near this level, and will drop to 4% in the long run. Under such data, the US dollar index soared that night, the US stock market plummeted, and international oil prices soared.
USD index rose for three consecutive days, and major currencies around the world depreciated for three days. The sharp rise of the USD index has actually been emphasized many times. If other countries do not follow interest rates to recover currencies, it will cause excessive currency issuance, leading to currency depreciation and inflation. Therefore, while the USD index rises sharply, most countries will be forced to raise interest rates, causing the economy to enter a deflation period and trigger an economic recession. After all, there are very few countries that can adjust countercyclically. This method is mainly very financially consuming, which is easy to understand. Many companies will also expand investment and increase recruitment during the downward period of the industry. After all, countercyclical expansion can quickly increase the market share and scale of enterprises, similar to the previous , Samsung , etc., all of which are like this.
2. The Russian-Ukraine war has expanded, and the global economy is even more difficult.
War has always been a war of attrition. After all, war requires a large amount of strategic materials to consume, causing an economic depression. Therefore, war is very terrifying. As long as any country goes through war, its economy will be regressed for at least 10 years. Today, the news shows that the cross-sea bridge of Crimea was bombed. This is the main supply road for the Russian army. Moreover, the explosion occurred in Russia, so it is very provocative. You can imagine the expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian war, so all this is in line with the US imperialists' wishes. After all, the beautiful country of wants to make a fortune through the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
news has shown that US natural gas has surpassed Russia to become the largest importer in Europe, and the price of US natural gas is 7 times that of Russia. With such a high natural gas price, European industrialization will be completely destroyed, and it will also lead to the emptied European property. Therefore, the biggest winner of the Russian-Ukrainian war is still the beautiful country.
The main reason why an economy encounters an economic crisis is that it cannot offset expenditures. This is also very easy to understand. A family earns less than the expenditure, so one day there will be a debt crash. The reason why the inflation surges in beautiful countries is that the US bond is too high and the deficit is too large, which leads to a failure to cover the expenses, but because the US dollar is the global currency, the world pays for the US dollar. Then, by making money in war, we can make up for the difference that does not cover the expenditure.
3. High energy prices are negative, and positive
At present, the big reason for the high inflation in the United States is because of the high energy prices. High energy prices have indeed brought huge inflation to beautiful countries, but there is another big reason that most of these energy sources are sold by beautiful countries. If these high-priced energy sources are sold by beautiful countries, then beautiful countries will not only have no inflation, but will also live very well. Therefore, high energy prices are both negative and positive. The negative is because the energy of beautiful countries sells less, which has a great impact on the economy. The positive is that beautiful countries can find ways to export their energy.
Using the Russian-Ukrainian war, beautiful countries began to export energy on a large scale, including crude oil and natural gas to Europe. At the same time, they maintained high energy prices, suppressed the way of producing oil, made a lot of money in the war, used a large amount of energy output, earned a lot of capital, and solved their own economic problems. So next you will find that beautiful countries have begun to sell a lot of energy, and even want to replace OPEC to sell energy. This is also the root cause of Buffett buying a lot of Occupy Oil, which is that you already know the tricks of beautiful countries. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CNOOC at a low level.
4. There are very few investment opportunities in the next three years
It has to be admitted that the biggest driving force for global economic development in the past 10 years is indeed the large-scale QE of the Federal Reserve after 2008. The US dollar issued currency, which triggered a surge in global demand, stimulated global economic development, and drove the economy to heat up. After all, economic development is actually a process of inflation. As long as technological development can offset inflation, it doesn’t matter. However, this year the Federal Reserve has experienced the largest interest rate hike process in the past 40 years. After such interest rate hike process, the global economy will definitely stagnate and even regress. After all, no other country can let inflation be allowed and a large amount of demand is generated to stimulate the global economy. At present, only beautiful states have the ability to operate in this way. Therefore, beautiful country is currently the world's largest demand country, and there is no doubt about this. Japan has tried it in the past, but after the Japanese real estate bubble in the late 1980s, it was unable to transfer the domestic economic crisis and could only be solved by its own development. This resulted in the lost 20 years. However, beautiful countries are different. They will find ways to transfer the crisis and then quickly get out of the economic crisis.
Finally, what I want to say is that it is difficult for us to transfer the economic crisis. After all, RMB is not a global currency, and can only rely on large-scale export of mid- and low-end industrial products to achieve economic recovery. However, this is hard money after all, it is completely hard money, and it is not as easy as making money as energy and chips.
