words dollar index . If we continue to follow the logic of the US dollar bottom last year and deduce the trend of A shares after the US dollar top, let’s see what will happen.
On January 6, 2021, the US dollar hit its lowest point of 89.2, and two days later, silver futures plummeted during the session. On September 28, 2022, the US dollar touched a maximum of 114.79, and three days later, silver futures almost hit the daily limit.
We assume that September 28 this year is the first peak. We will reverse the A-share CSI index last year according to symmetry to see how A-shares will move.
CSI full index reversal K-line chart
- A 2021/1/6 The lowest point of the US dollar index
- B 2021/2/25 US dollar index second bottoming
- C 2021/5/25 The third bottoming bottoming (big bottom)
- D 2021/12/13 A-shares hit the highest point
- F 2022/4/27 The lowest point of A-share decline
originally wanted to use the average stock price, but the software has no reversal function, so it can only be replaced by CSI All-Search. This CSI Index includes all stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, but excludes delisting warnings and stocks , which have been listed for less than 3 months.
We saw that the US dollar bottomed out for the first time last year and the A-share peaked, and it lasted for nearly a whole year.
On the other hand, if USD 9/28 is really the first time it peaks, if according to symmetry, A-shares really enter the main rising bull market, will it be in early September next year?
This year, the volatility of A-shares will not converge but increase, and may hit a new low in this round of adjustment during this period.
Next launched a strong rebound for the past three weeks, and then it fluctuated downward, with the amplitude not converging until it bottomed out in early September next year, and then launched a round of main rise for nearly 4 months.
We found that this market characteristic is that it fluctuates broadly around a cycle of 5 days. That is, buy on lows and cash on highs, making the most profit. For example, buy after 5 consecutive days of decline and sell after 5 consecutive days of rise.
fluctuates the market, keeping pace with the right pace, without the anxiety and impatience of not being able to get on the car, is the most profitable, but repeatedly breaking the trend line will also make trend investors lose their money.
Of course, this is a hypothesis. The real trend may not be like this, whether it is a band trend or a time period. But I think that wide range of fluctuations, rather than unilateral upward or downward, is a characteristic that I personally feel is very likely to appear.
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Focus on liquidity observation, sometimes feeling it, not as a basis for investment!
