8 PMI rebounded in August, and small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing great pressure
In August 2022, as the domestic industrial chain and supply chain continue to recover, the manufacturing production environment continues to improve, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%, and the prosperity level rebounded from last month. As market prices continue to decline, the current inflation pressure of enterprises tends to ease. However, due to factors such as high temperatures and the spread of the epidemic, market demand is still weak, with the new order index of 49.2%, which is still in the contraction range although it rebounded by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. On the other hand, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the continued impact of the epidemic, small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing great pressure. In August, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.5%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, which has a strong support for the macro economy. However, the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, which is still below 49%, although it is up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and it is still below 49%. The production index and new order index are also operating below 49%, and the PMI of small enterprises is 47.6%, which is not only operating below 48%, but also down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4% in August (Data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
From the industry perspective, in August, several key industries in the manufacturing industry showed the following characteristics:
After monthly losses in the entire industry, the steel market eased slightly
Affected by the high raw fuel costs, the decline in downstream steel consumption demand and the sluggish steel prices, in July, the entire steel industry suffered a monthly loss for the first time this year, and corporate efficiency decreased significantly, and the industry faced a severe situation. On the one hand, the high prices of raw fuel have seriously compressed the profit margin of steel companies. The proportion of coal and coke costs soared from 35.1% last year to 49.4% this year, and exceeded the cost of iron resources for the first time in history. On the other hand, due to the insufficient downstream pull, especially the sluggish real estate, the overall apparent consumption of steel is lower than the previous forecast. Judging from the PMI data of the steel industry released by the China IoT Steel Logistics Professional Committee, the downward trend of domestic steel market demand slowed down in August, with the PMI rebounding to 46.1%, a month-on-month rebound of 13.1 percentage points, but the supply and demand ends remained weak. The new order index in August was 43.1%, up 17.2 percentage points from the previous month. Although the index rebounded significantly, it is still at a low level below 44%, and current demand is still insufficient.
Figure PMI changes in the steel industry since 2019 (Data source: China IoT Steel Logistics Professional Committee Member)
From the perspective of the global market, global steel prices continued to bottom in August . Due to weak international steel demand and rising production costs, many steel mills around the world stopped production and limited production. According to data from the World Iron and Steel Association, from January to July, global crude steel production was 1.102 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, reducing crude steel production by 62.62 million tons, of which China's production cuts were the most, at 41.66 million tons. It is predicted that the global crude steel production will drop by about 100 million tons in 2022. In terms of policy, on August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of issued the "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in in the Industrial Field", which clarified the overall goals of the carbon peak in in the industrial field. Among them, during the peak action of the steel industry, it is proposed to encourage moderate and steadily improve the development of short-processes of advanced steel electric furnaces; by 2025, short-process steelmaking will account for more than 15%. By 2030, short-process steelmaking will account for more than 20%.
Textile export growth rate slows down, and there is still uncertainty in the peak season
Since this year, with the influence of factors such as changes in the epidemic situation, intensified geopolitical risks, transfer of international orders, and weakening consumer demand, the development of the textile and clothing industry is facing tremendous pressure. In August, the PMI of the textile industry was lower than the overall level of the manufacturing industry, and the production index and new order index were both lower than 45.0%, and the production and demand of enterprises fell significantly. According to a sample survey of 14 provinces, cities, autonomous regions and 70 textile enterprises in the country in early August, the enterprise opening rate was 68.5%, a decrease of 7.0 percentage points month-on-month and 25.2 percentage points year-on-year. Judging from the data on industrial production above designated size in August released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the textile industry fell by 5.1% year-on-year in August.In terms of exports, China's textile and clothing exports in August stopped the previous rapid growth momentum, with the year-on-year growth slowing down and a month-on-month decline. According to the latest data released by General Administration of Customs on September 7, in US dollars, textile and clothing exports in August increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 6.8% month-on-month. On the one hand, since the US ban on Xinjiang's cotton was officially implemented in late June, orders for textiles and clothing exported to the United States have been greatly affected, and it is difficult for domestic cotton to be destocked. On the other hand, although the global textile and clothing consumer market has reached the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", its performance is not satisfactory and the gap is larger than expected. Overall, after entering the peak season, the market has achieved limited improvement. Although orders have continued, they are still worse than in previous peak seasons. Survey data released by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that in terms of textile unilateralism, nearly 80% of enterprises said that orders decreased, about 18% of enterprises said that foreign orders were basically stable, and only about 3% of enterprises increased orders. Construction machinery exports continue to be strong, and internal and external differentiation intensifies Due to the overall downward cycle of the industry, coupled with the slowdown in the macroeconomic growth rate, the epidemic and the fluctuations in raw material prices in the first half of the year, the domestic market demand for construction machinery continues to decline. Unlike the decline of the domestic market, overseas markets continue to show a high rate of growth, and domestic and foreign markets are "double in both ice and fire". Judging from the sales volume of the two major engineering machinery products in August, this trend is continuing. According to statistics from China Construction Machinery Industry Association on 26 excavator manufacturing companies, 18,076 excavators of various types were sold in August 2022, the same as the same period last year. Among them, the proportion of export volume in total sales continued to increase, reaching 49.7%, which continued to set a new historical maximum after July. According to statistics from 22 loader manufacturing companies of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 8,802 loaders of various types were sold in August 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%. Among them, export sales increased by 62.4% year-on-year, an increase of 47.2% from July. Overall, the decline in domestic sales narrowed in August, exports continued to be strong, and the proportion of exports in total sales increased month by month, and internal and external differentiation intensified. According to the start-up data, according to the start-up hours of Komatsu excavator released by the official website of Komatsu , in August 2022, the start-up hours of Komatsu excavator in China were 98.6 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, a sixth consecutive month decrease; a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, setting the lowest value of the same month in the past six years, indicating that the domestic start-up situation in August is not optimistic. With the release of the 2022 semi-annual reports, it shows that the net profits of major listed companies in domestic engineering machinery generally plummeted in the first half of the year, and the cold wave encountered by engineering machinery seems to be getting worse and worse. 推公司0推公司2022 semi-annual report performance summary of major listed companies of engineering machinery (data source: Today's Engineering Machinery)
The added value of electronic information manufacturing industry has grown rapidly
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Automobile production and sales have grown rapidly, new energy has achieved outstanding results
has experienced multiple challenges such as the epidemic, and the automobile industry is accelerating its recovery. In August, automobile production and sales continued to maintain rapid growth momentum year-on-year.According to statistics from the of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August 2022, my country's automobile production and sales reached 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively, an increase of 38.3% and 32.1% year-on-year; the production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a new record high, with 691,000 and 666,000 respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1 times year-on-year respectively. At present, the industry continues to maintain a good development trend and is expected to continue.
map car monthly sales (data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)
From the perspective of market segments, passenger car consumption has gradually returned to normal. In August, passenger car production and sales reached 2.157 million and 2.125 million, respectively, an increase of 43.7% and 36.5% year-on-year respectively. The production and sales of commercial vehicles reached 238,000 and 258,000 respectively, an increase of 3.1% and 4% year-on-year respectively, and production and sales achieved the first year-on-year growth since this year. In terms of new energy, automobile production and sales and automobile exports both hit record highs year-on-year. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 691,000 and 666,000 respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1 times year-on-year respectively, with a market share of 27.9%. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 536,000 and 522,000, respectively, an increase of 1.1 times and 92.9% year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 155,000 and 144,000, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times year-on-year; the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles reached 97 and 255 respectively, an increase of 1.4 times and 5.7 times year-on-year respectively. In August, 83,000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 82.3% year-on-year.
Figure New energy vehicles monthly sales (data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)
According to the latest industrial production data above scale released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 16, in August, the added value of industrial added in of the country increased by 4.2% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month; a month-on-month increase of 0.32%. Among them, the manufacturing industry grew by 3.1%. Overall, in August, production demand steadily increased, industrial production maintained a rebound trend, and the prosperity level of most industries also improved compared with last month, but some industries and small and medium-sized enterprises are still under pressure and still need to overcome the impact of multiple challenges and multiple factors beyond expectations.
Reference:
1. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the China Purchasing Manager Index in August 2022
2. The economy is slowing down and stabilizing, and the recovery foundation is still not solid - manufacturing PMI analysis in August 2022
3. He Wenbo: Six sets of data see steel
4. Global steel prices continue to bottom out, and market strengths and weaknesses in various places are mutually visible
5. How long will it take for the "divergence" of internal and external cotton prices?
6. Semi-annual report of listed companies: net profit plummeted, overseas market hedging is very limited
Reprinted from the official account: Global Intelligent Manufacturing Observation
