In the morning of today's trading, the offshore RMB exchange rate fell sharply, falling below 7.19, 7.20, 7.21, 7.22 and 7.23 in succession, plummeting more than 600 points, and breaking the exchange rate change record in 2015, setting the lowest since 2008.
Not long after, the onshore RMB exchange rate also quickly broke through 7.20. There are two problems worth thinking about when the sharp drops are falling in succession:
1 and are in the internal . There is capital spillover, and selling RMB is quite powerful.
2, offshore market , has obvious intention to short RMB, , and , and the power of , Wall Street cannot be ignored. According to past experience, it is generally hedge fund that increases buying RMB put options.
For the former, it can be basically determined that capital has left the market according to the decline rate, but the whereabouts of this part of the funds are still very particular.
The stock market is falling, and the world is the same. Wall Street brokers are almost scolding Powell to death, but it is useless and the bond market is even worse. The prices of Western bonds ( US bonds , German bonds, and British bonds) are the same as the financial crisis in 2008, and almost all institutions have smashed their hands.
can only be the foreign exchange market, or save it. Based on the latter point of view, Wall Street uses the trend of the Federal Reserve to make money, basically clear: shorting non-US currencies in large quantities, use all kinds of financial instruments for futures and options, and then put money into the money fund market.
does not have to pay taxes, and also holds high interest rates. In order to absorb this money, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are getting higher and higher, from 3% to 4%, now preparing to 4.6%, and maybe even higher.
Of course, the Federal Reserve will not do it in vain. It took away the US dollar in the market through reverse repurchase and sold the US bonds in its hands. Due to the very low price, many institutions are willing to take over. Bonds are different from stocks. Therefore, many big funds like to buy at the bottom of , especially the mutual fund in the United States, which can take it for several years. With this change of hands, the wealth harvested from the world has become American pensions, medical fund and other money to serve Americans.
So there was Biden Economic adviser. When attending the Washington Club meeting, he said that the strengthening of the US dollar means that the US economy is good and it is a good thing. During
, someone asked that the global currencies are depreciating to varying degrees, and panic spreads. Are you worried that other major countries will negotiate with the United States to reach a new square agreement ? This guy is determined: "The United States does not consider it."
has obvious intentions. The United States has publicly recognized the strength of the US dollar, which means that interest rate hikes under inflation will only continue. As for how the world is now, the United States has no time to pay attention to it.
If he is just a consultant and has limited voice, then Yellen 's statement yesterday can also be made solid. She said that the main problem of the global economy now is inflation, and nothing else is big, and everyone's interest rates are different, so there is no way to cooperate.
From this point of view, the dollar has risen again for a period of time and the RMB has fallen again has become a high probability event. Now the problem is that the exchange rate has exceeded 7.23, and it may also be touched if it breaks 7.30.
Now some people believe that depreciation is beneficial to exports. At present, the economy needs to fall from undervalued. Those who say this are either not understanding the economy or undercover of the US dollar.
In terms of our country's export growth rate and global demand, 6.9 is basically OK, and it should not be 7.10 at most, otherwise the reverse impact of depreciation will become greater and greater.
won’t talk about how much money can be made in export. Although the increase in import costs has not been transmitted to the downstream, it is still a matter of time. The inflation risk brought about will increase sharply.
Therefore, when it comes to exchange rate, we can only look at it in a relative way. We cannot be willing to act on our own, especially now that the US dollar is preparing to grab our wealth in the RMB offshore market .
