Written by / Cheng Chen
Edited by / Sun Chunfang
In order to maintain the industry's position, the power battery manufacturer led by CATL is stretching longer and longer. As for lithium ore , and when it comes to the vehicle factory, they want to make a mistake. The layout of the entire industrial chain seems to have become the general knowledge of the industry. However, the industry has specialties and the market has capacity. Will this trend lead to overcapacity in the entire industry and the funds of small players break down?
CATL fought a "turnaround battle".
On the evening of October 10, CATL released the company's third quarter performance forecast for 2022. From January to September this year, CATL's net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 16.5 billion to RMB 18 billion, an increase of approximately RMB 112.87% to RMB 132.22% over the same period last year. Among them, the net profit attributable to shareholders in the third quarter is expected to make a profit of 8.8 billion to 9.8 billion yuan, directly exceeding the total net profit of 8.168 billion yuan in the first half of this year. Driven by the performance of
, on October 14, CATL A shares closed at 436.91 yuan per share, with a market value returning to one trillion yuan. In terms of market share, in September, CATL once again took the lead in the top 1 power battery installation volume in the global market.
"King Ning" is in the limelight. But if the timeline is lengthened, CATL's 2022 will not be easy.
In the first quarter of this year, the price of lithium ore in the upstream soared, and the most intuitive result transmitted to the downstream was that the cost of power batteries was pushed up. Affected by this, CATL's net profit in the first quarter of 2022 fell by 23.62% year-on-year to 1.493 billion yuan, and its gross profit margin was "halved" from 27.82% in the same period last year to 14.48%, setting a new low.
In the new energy industry chain, the price of power batteries affects the whole body. Whether it is a power battery company or an OEM factory, it does not want to bear the heavy pressure of price increase alone.
Since this year, power battery manufacturers represented by CATL have been spending money to expand production capacity while extending their tentacles to upstream lithium mines.
"The industry has specialties" seems to be outdated. When the technology is in a relatively stable period, companies in the industrial chain start a "volume" model, rushing to layout the entire industrial chain, and trying to establish a supply chain system with high risk resistance. After all, no one wants to be restricted, and no one wants to be left behind.
invested 94 billion in one year
CATL's high profits have been traced during the company's 2022 semi-annual report period.
At that time, CATL said that due to the excessive price increase of upstream raw materials, CATL had negotiated with most power battery customers to dynamically adjust the price of power battery. The effect of
price adjustment is immediate. At the investor briefing held in September, CATL had "spoilers". Due to the adjustment of the power battery system price in the third quarter and the improvement of capacity utilization, the gross profit margin performance of the power battery sector will be slightly improved compared with the first half of the year.
There are people in the power battery industry who have told "Financial World" weekly that CATL has a strong voice in the pricing power battery.
This is determined by CATL's market position. According to the latest data from the China Automobile Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September this year, CATL's domestic power battery installation volume reached 15.12GWh, continuing to lead with a market share of 47.8%.
develops new customers and establishes a diversified and balanced customer list, which is the guarantee of the subsequent market potential of second-tier power battery manufacturers. However, for CATL, which has no worries about selling, tight production capacity has become one of the factors that hinder the market size.
According to public data, as of the end of June 2022, CATL's battery system had a production capacity of 154.25GWh, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.25%; there are 6 battery production projects under construction, with a capacity of 100.46GWh under construction.
Although second-tier power battery manufacturers have shown a rapid offensive this year, it will take some time to catch up with the leader. Taking Zhongchuang Airlines, a "dark horse player" with the third largest domestic market share, as an example, its prospectus and book shows that the company's overall production capacity in 2022 is expected to be 35GWh. Compared with the two, CATL's advantages are still obvious.
In order not to be caught up, the leader still needs to run wildly on the track of expanding production capacity.
In September this year, CATL issued an announcement stating that the company plans to invest in the construction of the Luoyang New Energy Battery Production Base Project in Luoyang City, Henan Province, with a total investment of no more than 14 billion yuan. In July this year, CATL disclosed a power battery project with a total investment of 14 billion yuan, and the factory was located in Jining, Shandong.
22 to the present, CATL has released 5 investment projects of 10 billion yuan, with a total investment budget of nearly 94 billion yuan. This new project, which is located in , Luoyang , will become the thirteenth wholly-owned battery factory in China by CATL. According to rough statistics from the "Financial World" weekly, the planned battery production capacity of the above-mentioned production bases will total 775GWh.
These wholly-owned battery factories also include a series of overseas production bases. In fact, seizing the European and North American markets has been included in the development plans of a number of domestic power manufacturers.
In August this year, CATL disclosed that it would build a new energy battery industry project in Hungary, with a total investment of no more than 7.34 billion euros. This is also the second overseas wholly-owned battery factory in CATL after the Thuringian battery production base in Germany.
power battery capacity expansion is a money-burning business.
CATL once estimated that the actual investment in single GWh production capacity of power batteries will require 300 million to 500 million yuan. Regarding the competitive radical capacity planning, CATL founder Zeng Yuqun once said that the capacity planning of , which is hundreds of Gwh, requires hundreds of billions of capital investment, and these capacity planning "has still depend on the final implementation."
(Photo source: Visual China )
But in order to maintain market share and maintain the company's voice in the industrial chain, CATL cannot give up the production capacity "arms competition".
In order to provide food and ammunition for the "arms competition", CATL has always been a major financing player in A-shares.
In August 2021, CATL disclosed a private placement plan, with the total amount of funds planned to raise no more than 58.2 billion yuan, mainly used for battery capacity expansion, research and development of new technologies and materials, etc.
This private placement plan was finally approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in April this year, and the total amount of funds raised was reduced to 45 billion yuan. Of this private placement, 38 billion yuan will be used for the investment and construction of four battery production projects under CATL. According to a previous announcement by CATL, the company's power battery production capacity is expected to reach more than 670GWh before 2025.
grab lithium mines and advance upstream
CATL cannot relax. The fluctuating lithium price of
has pushed up the cost of power batteries and has also tore through the "harmony" that enterprises in the industrial chain maintain on the surface.
In July this year, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group , directly "joking" that the cost of power batteries accounts for 40% to 50% of the vehicle costs, even reaching 60%. "Aren't I working for CATL?"
" The superficial debate on "Where has the money gone" reveals behind the transfer of voice in the new energy vehicle industry chain. The price of lithium ore soared, and profits in the industrial chain began to gather upstream. Taking Tianqi Lithium Industry as an example, in the first half of this year, Tianqi Lithium Industry's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.3 billion yuan, a sharp increase of more than 100 times year-on-year. In 2020, the company's annual net profit was a loss of nearly 1.9 billion yuan.
At the end of September, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate once again exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton, returning to his historical high, adding fuel to the hot lithium mine business.
Why is the lithium price soaring? The industry has its own judgments.
Previously, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, publicly stated that the price of lithium iron carbonate soared in the short term this year, but the proven lithium resource reserves are "completely enough to produce power batteries and energy storage batteries needed worldwide", which is the hype of upstream raw materials that has brought short-term troubles to the industrial chain.
Musk also believes that global lithium resource reserves are not short of, but lithium resources will still limit the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the short term.
(Photo source: Visual China)
"The proportion of the lithium mine price hype is very small." A domestic power battery manufacturer head holds a different view, "Lithium mine cooperation basically follows a long-term agreement, mainly due to supply and demand problems."
This source told Caijing Tianxia Weekly that according to the current industry situation, the prices of lithium ore and nickel ore are expected to decline in phases in the second half of 2023.
But this does not hinder the current "mine grabbing war".
Since 2022, power battery companies and automobile host manufacturers have come to an end, deeply bound with lithium mining companies, and even directly participate in mineral mining. In fact, although Zeng Yuqun once publicly stated that mineral resources are not the bottleneck of industrial development, CATL is not ruthless in the matter of "mine grabbing".
1 January, CATL first Later, lithium mining companies were established in Sichuan and Guizhou to lay out their business in ore dressing, mineral sales and other businesses.
April, Yichun Times, a subsidiary of CATL, won the prospecting rights of a lithium-containing mining area in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province for a quotation of 865 million yuan. According to CATL, the company currently has a full industrial chain layout of lithium resources in Jiangxi, covering mining, ore dressing, and lithium carbonate smelting businesses.
CATL's layout of lithium mineral resources began earlier, but at that time, CATL mostly intervened in the form of holdings and holdings, such as acquiring Canadian Millennial Company and strategic investment in Tianhua Times.
As the situation is becoming increasingly urgent, CATL now chooses to directly rush into the "rich" gameplay of buying mines at high prices.
Of course, the competition and other mid- and downstream companies are not idle either.
At the end of September, 15 Lithium Energy issued an announcement stating that it plans to acquire 20% stake in Ruifu Lithium for 800 million yuan to improve the stability of the upstream supply chain.
Also in September, GAC Aion, a new energy business segment of GAC Group, announced its cooperation with Ganfeng Lithium , whose business involves lithium resource development and mid-stream lithium salt Deep processing and recycling of used batteries, etc.
Previously, media reported that NIO plans to invest in the Argentine lithium mine project with more than 600 million yuan.
But it should be noted that lithium mine is another project with a long business cycle. Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Ouyang Minggao once said that the production capacity release cycle of lithium carbonate produced by ores takes 3-5 years.
"Mineral mining is a high-return and high-risk project. The special market in the past two years has made the lithium mine business very popular, but we cannot ignore the previous state of losing money in some lithium mine companies. Power battery manufacturers and even car companies are planning minerals for the sake of maintaining long-term cost stability. "The above source told Caijing Tianxia Weekly, but mining still needs to be cautious for companies with less abundant capital reserves.
industry is wary of overcapacity
power batteries are recognized as good business.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to September this year reached 4.567 million, and increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, with a market share of 23 .5%.
Also According to statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, the penetration rate of domestic retail in September exceeded the 30% mark for the first time, reaching 31.8%, exceeding 11 percentage points year-on-year. Driven by the consumption of new energy vehicles, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, once predicted that China's power battery shipments will exceed 1TWh in 2025, with an output value of more than 1 trillion yuan.
high demand pushes up power batteries Manufacturers' enthusiasm for expanding production. In just the past September, in addition to CATL's battery production base project disclosed in Luoyang, Xinwangda and Yiwei Lithium Energy have also released news of new projects. The former will invest in power battery production projects in Yiwu and Yichang , while the latter plans to build a new factory with an annual output of 40GWh in Shenyang, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan.
According to rough statistics from the "Financial World" weekly, today Since the beginning of the year, the newly planned production capacity of domestic power battery manufacturers has reached nearly 1,200GWh. According to the reference standard previously provided by Guoxuan Hi-Tech : If each car is equipped with 50KWh of power as an example, 1GWh battery can be equipped with 20,000 electric vehicles.
According to this calculation, this batch of newly planned production capacity alone can be equipped with 24 million electric vehicles. According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2022, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in my country are expected to reach 5.5 million. There is still a significant gap between the two.
However, the above-mentioned new planned production capacity will still take 2-3 years, or even longer, while the domestic new energy vehicle market is showing a rapid growth trend, and market demand still exists. Analytical agency SNEResearch also predicts that by 2025, the power battery production and sales gap will reach 37%, and the market will remain in a state of tight supply and demand.
However, large-scale investments in power battery production capacity and upstream lithium mining still cause industry concerns about the risk of overcapacity.
In August this year, National Energy Administration forwarded an article in the Economic Daily, expressing the need to "a dynamic view of the battery production expansion boom." The industry is worried that serious overcapacity will trigger vicious competition in the market. Such lessons have happened in industries such as steel, photovoltaics and .
Ouyang Minggao believes that from 2021 to 2030, my country's new energy vehicles will maintain a rapid growth trend overall, but cyclical fluctuations still exist, and it is expected that there will be a periodic surplus of power battery production capacity in 2025.
Although there are related risk warnings, power battery manufacturers and car companies do not want to lose the power of this huge market and industrial chain.
According to " Shanghai Securities News ", Zeng Yuqun once said: "If there is a stable supply chain, the company will not go to mining by itself." However, in the face of the new energy industry that is still in the growth stage, in order to gain a foothold and invest in the entire industrial chain in the upstream, it is still an important means for enterprises to avoid risks at this stage.
