Given that the economic and trade trends in Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe and other places are more decadent than expected at the beginning of the year, International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released a new version of the forecast report, which is expected that global economic growth rate will slow to 3.2% in 2022 and will further decline to 2.7% next year.
IMF believes that the intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation is going global and expanding, residents' lives are impacted, and the tightening of the United States' monetary policy and other factors have caused severe challenges to the world economy, and even used the harsh wording of "the global economy is overcast and policy makers need stable intervention." The
report pointed out that countries that account for about one-third of the global economy will experience recession this year or next year, and the economic trauma in the post-epidemic period has not yet fully healed. Especially in those low-income countries, high inflation makes it harder for them to deal with this cost-of-living crisis.
But some countries' economic growth rates will become stronger
Although the global economic trend is "overall sluggish and decadent", some countries' economic growth rates have been greatly motivated by geopolitical and the European energy supply crisis. Among them, they are major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi .
IMF estimates that thanks to the order transfer effect brought by EU reducing its dependence on Russia's energy, the economic growth rate of Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 7.6% in 2022. It is 0.8 percentage points higher than India's 6.8% economic growth rate, more than twice the expected value of my country's economic growth rate.
Among the major global economies, the leading position in GDP growth rate will no longer be China and India, but will become Saudi Arabia in 2022. But this phenomenon may be just a flash in the pan. After energy demand and prices return to normal next year, Saudi Arabia's economic growth will slow to 3.7%.
Will the economic growth rate slow down significantly next year? Saudi Arabia seems unwilling to accept this prediction, and recently made a fierce confrontation with the United States - an agreement to cut oil production with Russia, and emphasized that this is "for economic reasons, not political factors."
Saudi Energy Minister said that the main purpose of agreeing to reduce oil production is to ensure market stability and balance, and the core is to safeguard Saudi Arabia's own interests. Oil prices are at a high level, and for Middle East oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, it will effectively inspire their economic growth and enrich their finances.
In addition to continuing to promote the development of the energy industry, Saudi Arabia has also released the "National Industrialization Strategy", providing domestic and foreign companies with investment opportunities in industrial fields worth more than 1 trillion riyals, creating more emerging job opportunities, and stimulating the diversification of economic growth momentum.
plus inflation factors, Saudi Arabia's GDP is expected to exceed US$1 trillion
While the economic growth rate may hit a record high, the scale of Saudi Arabia's economy is also likely to set a new record in 2022 and is expected to achieve a breakthrough of US$1 trillion. The IMF predicted this way: combined with inflation factors, Saudi Arabia's GDP may range from US$833.54 billion in the previous year.
has expanded significantly to US$1.01 trillion in 2022, and the global trillion-dollar GDP club will once again expand. Saudi Arabia's per capita GDP may also increase significantly from US$23,500 in 2021 to around US$28,000 in 2022.
Note: The economic growth rate we usually mention is after removing inflation factors, but 2022 is quite special. Inflation goes global and may become the main driving force for the rise in nominal GDP of various countries. What do netizens think about this? This article is written by Nan Sheng. Please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!
