How should good students prove their innocence? This is a problem.
Recently, affected by the Xuhui storm, the real estate industry has encountered another round of fierce double-debt kills in stocks and bonds.
includes Country Garden , Jindi , Longhu , Greentown , Ocean and other few real estate companies are facing considerable selling pressure in the capital market.
On October 17-19, the prices of several bonds in Jinde fluctuated abnormally, which once triggered a temporary suspension of trading, and some bonds fell to unexpected prices.
Since this year, the performance of the capital market, especially the bond market, has become a core reference for measuring the risk of real estate companies.
Therefore, the sharp drop in Jindi bonds has also caused panic among many people. Many friends also came to ask Brother Tao, what happened to Jindi?
In fact, this question is really difficult to answer, and many institutions and professional investors who invest in bonds are also bored.
From the perspective of the company's fundamentals , on the sales collection side, Gemdale achieved sales of 163 billion from November to September, ranking among the top seven in the industry. Its overall sales performance is better than peers, and there is continuous inflow of reimbursements.
On the credit side of debt repayment, just repaid 2.84 billion corporate bonds in advance on October 13, and there are no public bonds due in 2022 , and the debt repayment pressure is not great.
On the financial security side, by the end of the first half of this year, the company still had cash and 64.8 billion yuan in cash on its account, and the proportion of disposable funds exceeded 70% . The three red line indicators continued to remain in the green level, and there was no problem at all.
Under such fundamentals, why do bonds still suffer panic selling?
Brother Tao also looked at the media reports and related speculations in the market, and found that no one has found any substantial problems, mostly indirect attacks.
For example, some people say that Jinde, as one of the earliest batch of real estate companies to increase the increase in China's bonds, has not issued a "demonstration bond" so far. Could there be any problems with the company's financing cash flow?
But in fact, issuing bonds first depends on whether the company needs to issue them. Is there any motivation? For example, is urgently needed to have a cash flow , or the financing cost is low enough, etc.
Goldiel itself is the first batch of pilot real estate companies for China Bonds to increase guarantee. There is no doubt that it is qualified and capable of issuing bond financing through China Bonds to increase guarantee.
However, Jindi currently has a cash capital of 64.8 billion, with a disposable capital ratio of more than 70%. In 2022, it also received more than 20 billion in bank credit limits, so the need for funds is not that urgent.
Moreover, although the face value interest rate of bonds during issuance does not seem to be high, in fact, if the cost of the guarantee measures is considered, the real financing cost is higher than the surface.
. The interim report shows that as of the first half of the year, the weighted average cost of Jinde debt financing was only 4.54% , which is comparable to a number of central state-owned enterprises.
Therefore, if the actual additional costs, counter-guarantee conditions are taken into account, and other financing costs such as small public offerings and development loans are compared, there is no need for Gemdale to rush to issue Chinese bonds to increase.
So, regardless of the urgency of financing or the financing cost, Jinde is not in a hurry to issue Chinese bonds. It is not that he cannot issue , but it cannot be used for the time being, and it will not be short of money because it has not been issued...
In addition to the issue of bonds, many media are worried about recently, and there is another question that Jinde may have invisible off-balance sheet debt because of the existence of cooperative projects, just like the recent situation of Xuhui .
To be honest, Xuhui, who is also a real estate company that is a pilot real estate company for China Bond Increase, has recently encountered risks, which has indeed caused a significant impact on market confidence. It is difficult for investors to trust real estate companies anymore, which is understandable.
However, regarding the issue of off-balance sheet debt, at the Jinde Investor Exchange Conference in August this year, the management had a special explanation of the situation of cooperative projects and off-balance sheet debt:
"The company's off-balance sheet projects only do development loans, not trust financing, off-balance sheet financing uses special purpose, sufficient collateral, and controllable risks."
Even if everyone thinks that the management's words cannot be fully trusted, you can also look at the land investment situation of Jinde from January to September:
As of the end of September, new land reserves were 1.71 million square meters, with a total investment of 22 billion yuan. The data announced by will not lie. It is difficult for companies with dangerous cash flow to take into account the current situation and have no spare time to continue to acquire land.
In addition to the above two doubts, there is another influencing factor, which is the recent market rumors that a large insurance fund of has a great impact on Xuhui and Country Garden in advance for loans.
Since Jinde's major shareholder also has other insurance funds backgrounds, some investors are worried that if insurance funds generally start to hedge real estate, it may also have an impact on Jinde.
Brother Tao feels that this is more of a market panic about negative public opinion. There are not many substantial actions at present and have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. I will not expand it here.
But it is worth noting that by reviewing the recent trading situation of Jinde bond market, we will find that it is synchronized with negative market public opinion. Jinde showed a large number of small-scale orders on the 17th. Because the market buyers are cautious, the selling orders are smashed quickly and powerful, causing bond prices to fluctuate.
17 After Jinde released the recent business announcement on the evening of the 18th, a large number of institutions gathered to buy at low prices. Was it a panic stampede, or was it someone deliberately doing it and making profits from it? If you understand people, you will naturally understand.
So, after looking around, you will find that the fundamentals of Jindi really do not seem to be flawed, and no one has found any substantial problems.
However, in the context of the fall of peers, is really too difficult for the remaining good students to prove their innocence.
You say that my sales performance is good, others think that they may be regulated, and they may not be able to deal with debt repayment;
You say that I have no debt recently, others think that you have paid off your public debt, but there may be off-balance sheet;
You say that I am safe on the balance sheet, others think that real estate companies are not trustworthy, and burst also says the same;
If you issue bonds, others will only raise funds if you feel that you are short of money; if you don’t issue bonds, others think that you are not enough;
If you acquire land, others think that you have consumed cash flow; if you don’t acquire land, others think that you have no money.
No matter what you do, putting aside the facts, are you really not wrong?
…
When investors lose confidence in an industry, it is difficult for good students to gain basic trust. At the end of this article, Brother Tao originally wanted to end with a positive energy, but I have to say that there is really no positive energy recently.
Real estate companies have been bleeding, their confidence has been lost, and the hope of subversive support for the expectation is slim.
In a market that continues to decline, pessimists are often correct . You can't see this, you can't see that, you can't see that.
But when no one can do it, what is left in the market and what impact will each of their own assets be?
So I shout for injustice to others, and gives the rest some support, but it is also for myself.
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