Affected by the ebb in downstream terminal demand represented by consumer electronics, and currently terminals, channels, and original manufacturers are all in the process of inventory digestion, the oversupply of MLCC will be difficult to reverse in the short term. Therefore, some media said that MLCC prices have bottomed out.
1, Consumer regulation MLCC prices fell
According to China Academy of Information and Communications Technology data, the domestic market mobile phone shipments in May were 20.805 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. From January to May, the total mobile phone shipments in the domestic market totaled 108 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%.
html In May, 24 new models of domestic mobile phones were launched, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. From January to May, a total of 167 new models were launched, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%.
This year, the online sales of 618 domestic mobile phones on Tmall are -7% year-on-year. Among them, Android phones are -32% year-on-year. The inventories of major companies in the industry chain are still at high levels.
IDC data also shows that global PC shipments will fall by 8% this year; in addition, smartphone sales, which account for about 20% of overall chip demand, are also expected to decline. In mainland China, the world's largest mobile phone market, smartphone shipments fell by about 30% in April this year compared with the same period last year, and the computer and mobile phone markets may intensify their shrinkage in the future.
The current market situation is that due to weak terminal demand, prices of almost all consumer electronics are upside down across the board. Among them, Yageo's products have been inverted 25%, Samsung inverted 20% , Fenghua Hi-tech and Sanhuan inverted 10-15%. In other words, agents have done more to lose. On the contrary, the demand for automobiles has continued unabated.
2, Car-grade MLCCs continue to be in short supply
According to media reports, passenger car sales and new energy vehicle sales have rebounded significantly in May, thus driving demand for automotive-grade semiconductors. According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data, China's passenger car sales in May were approximately 1.62 million units, year-on-year -1.41%, and month-on-month 68.2%.
In addition, affected by the rising international oil prices, new energy vehicles are very popular. Sales in May reached 447,000 units, year-on-year +106.0%, and month-on-month +49.5%.
According to Jiwei.com, currently, the inventory of automobile MLCC agents is low and maintained at the regular water level of 2-3 months, and cars with large size and high capacity are obviously out of stock and the current delivery date is It has reached 40 months . Not only that, driven by continuous demand, the vicious stockpiling and expansion of production capacity in 2020 have been exhausted at this stage, so the small-sized and low-capacity 0603 and 104 of car-grade are also out of stock.
3, MLCC prices have bottomed out
It is worth mentioning the MLCC inventory problem. At present, the inventory control of major MLCC manufacturers is relatively good, and most of them are between 1.5 and 2.5 months. However, the inventory level of downstream agents is higher than that of the original factory, and the longest can last up to 4 months.
According to industry insiders, although the inventory level of 3-4 months is relatively long for agents, it is not a big problem. At most, it is a longer stock level for some agents. Once the market rises, it will be digested quickly. It will be very fast.
Jiweiwang said that according to observations, the longest period of is one year for the rise and fall of MLCC, and the time when this round of MLCC began to fall is in July 2021. According to past experience, the current situation is exactly in line with a period of one year. According to the annual pattern, the price should have reached the bottom stage.
Industry insiders also reported that the current MLCC price has basically stabilized, and the price at the channel end will not drop again. First of all, the price has reached the cost, and there is no room for price reduction. Secondly, if the price is lowered, it will be difficult to grab more shares.
Agency TrendForce also said that from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the average annual price of consumer-grade MLCC dropped by 5 to 10%. In the second quarter of this year, in order to stimulate customers to increase their willingness to purchase goods, Another 3~5% reduction, and some low-end consumer grade MLCC prices have even touched the material cost.
Judging from the past MLCC supply and demand cycle process, the supply and demand turning point often appears after a continuous increase in price and volume, or after a decrease in both price and volume. For example, from the second half of 2020 to 2021, it experienced an upward period of both price and volume. So far, MLCC has experienced simultaneous declines in volume and price for two consecutive quarters, and perhaps a turning point is coming.
