The latest gold market analysis:
Gold news analysis: In the Asian market on Thursday (July 7), spot gold rebounded slightly and is now trading at around US$1,740 per ounce. On Wednesday (July 6), gold fell to a low in more than nine months due to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Spot gold closed at US$1,739.00 per ounce, a sharp drop of US$25.64 or 1.45%, hitting an intraday low of US$1,732.13 per ounce. The hawkish language of the Federal Reserve minutes also stimulated the dollar to strengthen. The U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year high on Wednesday, rising 0.5% to close at 107.09. Concerns about a global economic recession dented sentiment and boosted the dollar. Gold is extremely oversold but still has further room to fall before correcting.
On Thursday, gold traders should pay attention to the U.S. ADP employment data for June, as it will be an early signal for Friday's non-farm payrolls data. At 20:15 Hong Kong time on Thursday, the U.S. ADP employment report for June will be released. The market expects U.S. ADP employment to increase by 200,000 in June, after increasing by 128,000 in May. This trading day will also usher in the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. The last time the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 375 basis points, many Fed officials subsequently issued hawkish speeches. Even the traditional dovish officials' comments turned dovish. The minutes of the meeting were biased toward hawkishness. The possibility of sending is higher, which puts gold prices at risk of further decline.
Gold technical analysis: Yesterday, gold once again followed the market trend of unilaterally falling . The trend is in Wenbo analysis! Gold fluctuated for such a long time in the early stage just for the current decline. The current market situation is just a matter of shorting ! Yesterday, gold opened at 1765.5 US dollars, rebounded slightly in the morning and began to fall around 1773 US dollars. European and American gold fluctuated and fell, and US gold began to increase in volume. At present, the lowest drop touched the 1731.5 US dollars, and closed at around 1739 US dollars in late trading. The line closes with a long negative line of upper and lower shadow lines . After this form, gold will undoubtedly continue to be short and bearish. We are only facing the problem of short selling points. Today, gold is focusing on the upper resistance at 1760 Near the US dollar, the rebound relies on resistance here to go short.
The current market trend is completely consistent with Wenbo’s expectations. The daily decline of 5 waves has fulfilled its mission and has fallen below the low of 3 waves to around 1730. Under such a downtrend, one can only go short, not long. The air force is overwhelming, and the support all the way is like a fake one. It has no effect at all and has no ability to rebound. So where is the bottom? I believe many friends now want to know. I personally calculated based on the amplitude of the waves. Judging from the drop, the amplitude of the 5th wave should be more than 1730, because the 1st wave dropped from 2070-1890, with a drop of 180 US dollars; the 3rd wave drop did not Looking directly at the 5th wave, the decline from 1870 to 1730 was only US$140, which is still lower than the 1st wave, so there is still some room for decline. Especially at present, the daily line is continuously declining, opening up the lower track space of Bollinger again. The MA5-MA10 moving average crosses downward to suppress it. The MACD green column can increase the volume, and the bearish sentiment is still strong. To sum up, the article summarizes: Today’s gold operation recommends mainly shorting on the rebound, supplemented by longing on the rebound. The top will focus on the 1755-1760 first-line resistance in the short term, and the bottom will focus on the 1732-1727 first-line support in the short term.
Crude oil latest market analysis:
Crude oil news analysis: During the Asian session on Thursday (July 7), U.S. crude oil was trading around 98, now quoted at 98.25 U.S. dollars per barrel. Morning API data showed that U.S. inventory data increased; oil prices It fell nearly 1.5% on Wednesday, hitting a new low in nearly three months at around US$95.14 per barrel during the session. Worries about the economic recession and the epidemic, and investors are increasingly worried that energy demand will be hit in a possible global economic recession, dragging down oil prices. go lower. American Petroleum Institute (API) data said that U.S. crude oil inventories increased last week, while refined oil inventories decreased. Crude oil inventories rose by about 3.8 million barrels in the week ended July 1. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by about 635,000 barrels. All oil and gas fields affected by a strike in Norway's oil sector are expected to resume full operations within days, putting further pressure on oil prices.The United States and its allies have discussed efforts to cap the selling price of Russian crude at around $40 to $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter. Discussions began ahead of the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russia's oil revenue while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At a summit in Germany on June 28, world leaders agreed to study options to limit oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services required to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products unless the price falls below a set level. Overall, U.S. crude oil inventories increased, and oil and gas production suspended due to a strike in the Norwegian oil sector also resumed, causing oil prices to fall back to the 100 mark. Coupled with the spread of the monkeypox epidemic and concerns about economic recession, oil prices remain bearish in the short term. Pay attention to EIA data during the day. If Data shows an increase in inventories, and oil prices may once again test support near $95/barrel.
Crude oil technical analysis: Crude oil continued to close yesterday, rebounded around 102.25 and consolidated under pressure. The European and American trading fell to a new low. However, there was insufficient continuity in the late trading and still recovered some of the lost ground. The lowest touched 95.0. Finally, it recovered to the neutral position of 98.0. The daily line formed a second wave of heavy volume decline, and the current structure is still falling back towards the previous low of 93.0. The low point is the key battle point for the daily long and short lines. Determine the mid-term trend of the market outlook. Long and short have concerns about each other, and the short-term approach may rebound. Pay attention to the situation of position breaking to determine the direction of the market outlook. News: Investors are increasingly worried that energy demand will be hit in a possible global recession. API data released in the morning showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased last week, while refined oil inventories decreased. Crude oil inventories rose by about 3.8 million barrels in the week ended July 1. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by about 635,000 barrels.
After the 4-hour inertial fall of crude oil, the downward trend can slow down slightly, and at the same time it is close to the neckline support point. There is a slight competition for this position. Before falling, it is not advisable to be too bearish and wait for the competition to choose. From the perspective of the downward step. . It is still in the downward stage in 4 hours. It is currently in the second wave of downward trend, combined with the change of trend. The market outlook will pay attention to the competition for 93.0 to determine whether it can get out of the complete three waves. Only by falling below the low point can further open up space, otherwise the short-term will see seesaws. On the whole, today's crude oil operation thinking is based on Wenbo's suggestion to mainly rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by pullbacks and longs. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 101.2-101.7, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 96.5-96.0.
