Thursday, July 7th.
The three major stock indexes bottomed out and rebounded in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index once exceeding 3,375 points. However, it fluctuated back in the afternoon, and pulled back slightly in late trading.
As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.27% (not reaching half of yesterday's negative line), the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.68%.
The total transaction volume of the two cities today was only 1.053 billion yuan. Compared with yesterday, the volume has shrunk significantly, falling below the 5-day average volume. Therefore, I basically think that a correction of 3-2 waves is a high probability. , the reasons and points of decline were analyzed yesterday. Interested investors can read yesterday's comments.
Funds returned slightly today, with a net purchase of 554 million yuan in northbound funds, and a net inflow of 5.362 billion yuan in main funds, which was less than one-tenth of yesterday’s net outflow. From this point of view, I judge Today's rebound is weak and is a relay of the decline, so it is a good opportunity for short-term investors to lighten their positions.
Looking at the market, a total of 2,605 stocks rose, and 90 stocks reached their limit. Although it has a certain profit-making effect, compared with yesterday's sharp decline, the magnitude is still insignificant.
- The automobile sector rose strongly, and the upward trend resumed. It once again stood on the 20-day moving average, broke through the 5-day moving average , and both volume and price rose. Be cautious and bullish. If the volume continues to rise tomorrow, you can hold shares with confidence;
- non-ferrous metals, electricity, coal and other sectors are all strong;
- medicine, tourism and other sectors are weakening, and the sector is rotating, medicine and medical care can still be actively paid attention to Hold shares, but avoid travel for the time being, and then intervene after the trend is restored.
- New energy sectors such as energy storage, battery replacement concepts, sodium batteries , UHV, photovoltaics , lithium batteries, etc. have exploded collectively. The new energy vehicle sector is oscillating at a high level, and the direction still needs to be confirmed before intervention;
- Engineering machinery is strong, can be paid attention to, and there is still a need to make up for the increase.
Regarding the current market trend, first of all, from the index point of view, there is a downward trend, especially today's shrinkage and weak rebound, which makes the direction clearer. Therefore, it is still recommended that everyone take short positions. host.
The market has gradually and strongly deduced from the initial rebound to a reversal upward trend. In the medium term, there is still room for growth, but the market will not change overnight. In the short term, it will retreat and digest the platform near 3400 points. The selling pressure is very necessary to consolidate the foundation and continue to challenge new highs. After the current 3_2 operation is completed, it will enter the 3-3 main rise stage, and is expected to challenge In the 3500-3700 area, whether it can break through 3700 depends on the market environment and sentiment. The 3-2 downward correction wave is expected to last 9 to 12 trading days, so it is relatively safe to enter the market again in late July. In fact, the specific details need to be reviewed day by day and revised gradually.
In the medium and long term, I still recommend focusing on the high-end manufacturing sector, including photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles and related auto parts, main raw materials, etc. Secondly, we should pay attention to the supplementary growth of medicine, medical care and engineering machinery.
In short, under the current trend, it is better to be cautious and wait for the trend direction to be clear before stepping in with heavy positions. After all, the rise of more than two months has accumulated a large amount of profits in the short term, and only a small number of people make money through stock market trading. So don't take it for granted that you are the lucky one.
