Source: CBN YiMagazine
2020 annual hot words, "live with goods" must be famous on the list.
In the vigorous double eleven melee, the live broadcast brought the goods out of the siege, occupying the C position: on the day of the pre-sale of the double eleven, the two Alibaba head anchors Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya had amazing results. Watch in the live broadcast room The total number of trips exceeds 3 billion , and the sales amount is nearly 8 billion in 8 hours.
People who do not buy things in the live broadcast room even if they have not watched the live broadcast will not be unfamiliar with words such as "All girls of Li Jiaqi", "Via's woman", "OMG, buy it" , or I have more or less glanced at popular searches on Weibo such as "the first man who told me not to sleep" and "selling rockets live".
blog post topic "the first man who told me not to sleep"
topics, popularity, traffic, sales, everything, everything reflects the beautiful "money scene" with live broadcasts.
However, the evaluation of live broadcast is mixed, showing a polarizing trend: people who like it say "can't sleep without watching it a day", people who hate it think "it's not as good as TV shopping in the past." What does
real live delivery look like?
01 looks beautiful.
is the beauty of live streaming. lies in the data, the traffic, and the infamous turnover. According to the "Statistical Report on China's Internet Development Status" released by CNNIC, as of September 2020, the number of live e-commerce users reached 309 million , accounting for 41.3% of online shopping users.
The report "Live E-commerce Toward a Trillion Billion Market" jointly released by KPMG and Ali Research Institute shows that the live e-commerce market reached 433.8 billion in 2019 and is still growing rapidly.
According to estimates, the scale of live e-commerce in 2020 will exceed trillion , and it is even expected to approach 2 trillion in 2021. With the blessing of a huge audience and a broad market,
has produced 5.32 billion Weiya, 3.87 billion Li Jiaqi, and Simba with 1.88 billion sales...
, whether you love it or not, live broadcast Bringing the goods is there, so beautiful.
live broadcast e-commerce market scale and forecast
However, in such an era when PS is rampant and cheating is endless, there is still a big question mark about how much moisture is behind the "beauty" of live streaming.
, in an article titled "A Fraudulent Live Broadcast of Double Eleven Live Experienced by Li Xueqin", profoundly exposed the fraud in the e-commerce live broadcast industry.
In the double eleven live broadcast of talk show actor Li Xueqin, the platform showed 3.11 million online people, and the comment area was also active. They kept interacting with Li Xueqin. Some people asked how to get the coupons. There was also cue Wang Jianguo. .
But the truth is that of the 311 million viewers, more than 3 million are robots , and even the viewers who actively leave messages in the comment area are actually fake. It is the amount of money spent, and 3 million people only need . "Pay 3,000 yuan to the billing agency" , can be called high quality and low price.
This is just the tip of the iceberg of the chaos in the e-commerce live broadcast industry.
The number of viewers, likes, followings, comments, comments, products plus shopping cart data, any data we can think of, can be swiped. The e-commerce live broadcast of "everything can be broadcast, everyone can broadcast, and everywhere can be broadcast" has become a single-scratch game for everything. The data of
can be refreshed. Real money sales are always real, right? That's not necessarily. Most of the sales published on the
platform are GMV, which is the Gross Merchandise Volume.
We thought:
GMV = real turnover
but in fact:
GMV = real turnover + cancel order amount +
return order amount + rejected order amount
because of thisThere are too many movable hands and feet in GMV.
Give me a chestnut. I saw an electric toothbrush worth 1,000 yuan in a live broadcast room, but I filled in the wrong address when I bought it and placed another order.
I spent 1000 yuan, but GMV is 1000 (real transaction amount) + 1000 (cancelled order amount) = 2000 yuan. If I am dissatisfied with the item, I return it without spending a penny, but the GMV is still 2,000 yuan.
Therefore, no matter how beautiful the GMV data of some anchors look, the real sales data is still questionable.
In response to the chaos of ordering, on November 23, the official website of the State Administration of Radio and Television issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Online Show Live and E-commerce Live Broadcasting":
requires "for the head live room, head host and account number" , High-traffic or high-transaction live delivery activities to carry out key management, strengthen compliance checks.”
In this regard, many people exclaimed that “it’s changed” and “e-commerce live broadcast is cold”, but notified e-commerce The impact of the live broadcast industry still has time to answer.
02 How the anchor is made
chicken soup text tells us that if we want to succeed, we must work hard. Every anchor can not be successful casually.
A typical day with a cargo anchor
Source: Taobao live broadcast & KPMG analysis
out at night and talking for several hours is just a routine operation. Which head anchor of does not have its own legend of the world? When
Weiya struggles most, she "sleeps for two hours in three days" and "can only accompany her daughter for one day a month";
Li Jiaqi tried 380 lipsticks in a live broadcast. After the broadcast, "lips are like torn". Drinking porridge makes my mouth sore";
Simba only relied on "1 cup of water, 1 dumpling, 2 painkillers, 5 bottles of energy drinks, 2 oxygen cylinders" to produce 13 hours of live broadcast time...
Simba
live broadcast while inhaling oxygen. However, the poisonous chicken soup tells us that if we want to succeed, just hard work is not enough, we also need time and place. The fact is indeed the case. Behind the successful anchor of , time (live) and geographical (platform) are indispensable.
2019 is called the first year of live streaming, but the seeds of live streaming have taken root and sprouted long before that. From 2016 to 2020, in just 4 years, online live broadcast users have increased from 310 million to 524 million . The huge user group of
encountered a special epidemic period, and a wonderful chemical reaction took place-"live + e-commerce", "live + travel", "live + e-sports" and other "live +" suddenly emerged.
Source: The emergence of the head anchor of China Merchants Securities
is also inseparable from the support of the platform.
"China Merchants Securities Research Report" shows that although the scale of 's e-commerce market is still expanding, the growth rate has slowed down greatly.
"Between 2011 and 2015, it remained at around 33%; from 2016 to 2018, the chain growth rate of its transaction size continued to drop from 36.57% to 13.57%."
in this situation Under the circumstances, competition among e-commerce platforms has become increasingly fierce, and new possibilities have begun to be explored.
Source: China Merchants Securities
Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya both began to test the live broadcast of goods in 2016. That year, Taobao and JD platforms began to enter the e-commerce live broadcast, inviting brands to live broadcast and divert them. The anchor who enters the venue at this time is equivalent to eating the platform's traffic bonus.
is scouring the sand with big waves. With the blessing of the right time and place, anchors with personal characteristics and high recognition have gradually emerged, relying on first-mover advantages to increase fan stickiness and gradually accumulate traffic.
live streaming is essentially a traffic game, and those who get traffic have the world.
With traffic, big anchors can use traffic to make brands, obtain product selection and bargaining power, talk about the best brand, keep the lowest price, attract more traffic, and construct a virtuous circle . The head anchor of
constructs a virtuous circle, while the small and medium anchors who fail to make the first move or miss the opportunity are the vicious circle .
has no fansThere is no bargaining power with traffic, no good brands can be discussed, no preferential prices can be obtained, and only some off-brand or low-priced products can be sold. But because there is no obvious advantage or characteristic, fans are not sticky, it is difficult to occupy a place in the fierce live broadcast competition. The Matthew effect of "the stronger the stronger, the weaker the weaker" has become a new label in the live streaming industry.
is a normal industry, usually the head eats well, the waist is full, and the bottom is not hungry, but live streaming is not. What is playing here is a winner-take-all game. There are only two types of anchors: head anchors, and others. The head anchor of
attracts the most traffic with the lowest price and the best selection. Their time is calculated by the second: 1.3 tons of coffee sold in 2 seconds, 15,000 lipsticks in 5 minutes, and 1750 in 7 minutes. Cars...
, but the small and medium-sized anchors who have no traffic and cannot carry goods are tasteless in the heart of the brand: "The pit fee of 1,500 yuan only sold 8 pieces", "the number of online people is less than 500, of which more than 100 are still Our own company's "...
" the flow of the entire industry is in the shape of a "pin". On the nail cap are 1% of the head anchors. They are the "chosen sons of heaven" in the traffic era, and they control 99% of the traffic. And 99% of the other anchors besides the head anchor can only share the flow of the needle tip under the nail cap.
Therefore, "either head or not vote" has become the consensus of the brand side. This approach uses commodities to help the anchor attract more traffic and sell more commodities.
goes back and forth like this, creating a trench between the head anchor and the small and medium anchors. The data in the "2020 Taobao Live Data Insights" jointly released by
Guan Yunchang and ECdataway shows that from January 1 to June 1, the sales of only Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi, the two anchors of TOP2, exceeded total sales. Amount 80%.
is not only between head anchors and small and medium-sized anchors, even head anchors with more than 1 million fans can be divided into Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi and others. On Tmall’s Double Eleven Top10 list, Shirley’s GMV of 440 million, ranked third, has a cliff-like gap with Wei Ya’s 5.32 billion and Li Jiaqi’s 3.87 billion. The promotion channel of
live streaming industry has been blocked by traffic tack. The head is difficult to replicate, the waist is difficult to reach, and small and medium-sized anchors are difficult to survive. If
cannot become the head anchor such as Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi, or celebrities with their own traffic, it will be difficult to splash out in the tide of this era, and more likely it will be silently swallowed by the era.
03 The value of live streaming
Even if there are various drawbacks and chaos, mainstream media still believe that live streaming will "change the distribution of retail traffic and promote the innovation of the format ".
However, there are also some people who always sing the opposite, believing that live streaming is only a form of future e-commerce, not a trend, and does not create new value in essence.
The entire e-commerce industry, from text in the 1.0 era, to graphics and text in the 2.0 era, short videos in the 3.0 era, and live broadcasts in the 4.0 era today, even if introduces products more vividly, buyers The information learned is richer and more detailed, but there is no fundamental change.
Although live delivery of goods looks like a brand new concept, it is essentially just moving the TV shopping that was once a big hit on the Internet, moving to the live broadcast room, and turning the TV shopping guide into an anchor.
But the new bottle is still old wine, and the product, format, and marketing are still in the past.
In addition, the deformed development of the entire live streaming industry has cast a shadow over the future of the industry. The head anchors Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya, Simba, Luo Yonghao and others cannot be copied. In addition to their own efforts, their success is also inseparable from some accidental factors from the outside.
If one day, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya fall, will there be the next Li Jiaqi and the next Wei Ya in the live delivery industry where small and medium-sized anchors are difficult to get ahead?
Moreover, today’s live streaming delivery industry is frequently chaotic, lacks effective supervision, and problems such as volume, water injection, fake goods, after-sales, and deformed development emerge one after another.There is still a question mark whether this emerging industry can continue to operate efficiently in the long term.
Some people think that the so-called live streaming is not a product advertisement. Many people at can’t understand, why would anyone like to watch live broadcasts?
Obviously, the first dozens of seconds of commercials in the video can't be tolerated, but they have a soft spot for several hours of live broadcasts. Is this a moral decay or a distortion of human nature?
Zhihu and Weibo have similar questions
. What's interesting is that comments on live broadcasts, whether it is praise or derogation, mostly those who don't watch the live broadcast.
They analyze the pros and cons of live streaming from the perspective of the industry, capital, or anchor, dissecting the industry from a cross-section, and predicting future trends.
"All the girls of Li Jiaqi" and "Weiya's woman", the real viewers of these live broadcasts are often silent in these analysis articles and industry reports, and they are simply and roughly summarized as traffic, fans, sticky and other words .
The description of them in the summary of "From the Spring and Autumn and Warring States of Live Streaming E-commerce, Watching MCN's Advanced Way", the word "harvest" is easily reminiscent of leeks
, or they do not care about live streaming Whether bringing the goods creates new value, nor does it care about the future prospects of the industry. They just want to buy, buy, and more often they don’t even want to watch it. They treat live broadcasting as TV or radio.
Li Jiaqi once said in an interview: “Many people don’t buy and buy the live broadcast room every day. Why do you want to watch the Li Jiaqi live broadcast room? The first one is habit, the second one is companionship. "
" When a person is at home, everyone will say that sometimes I will not buy, but I will open the live broadcast room, and Li Jiaqi’s voice is like a friend accompanied. The comment said that Li Jiaqi will be broadcast live on bathing, doing housework, and bringing the baby. The voice on the side becomes a kind of companionship." After
stopped broadcasting for 3 days from November 13th to 15th, Wei Ya finally issued a live broadcast preview on Weibo. The message below is not asking what to sell today or what special offers, but "long time no see", "finally broadcast" and "miss you".
seems to them that the anchor in the live room is not just a KOL with goods, but a long-lost friend. Each live broadcast of is like a date on schedule, accompany them through one Night.
jumped out of the stereotype of no-brainer buying, buying and buying, "fireworks, love, companionship, encouragement", these are the keywords they choose for themselves.
However, if you exclude buying, buying and buying, and put on the veil of "accompaniment", the anchor with the goods will converge with other game anchors, outdoor anchors, and talent anchors. After all, the key to 's live streaming is the "goods."
2016 is the first year of live broadcast in China. That year, with the help of smart phones + 4G, various live broadcast platforms showed explosive growth.
As the industry gradually matures, the chaotic situation of the separatist regime is ended. Platforms such as Douyu, Huya, and Panda TV have emerged in fierce competition with their platform characteristics, and the live broadcast industry has gradually become standardized.
However, with the outbreak of the short video industry in recent years, the live broadcast industry has been impacted, and the bad news has never stopped.
Fortunately, under the quarantine for several months during the 2020 epidemic, the live broadcast encountered the goods. The first year of the live broadcast was born, and the value of the live broadcast industry began to fully explode.
However, live streaming is only the sales link in the entire social production chain. Z6z solves the problems of long traditional sales channels and slow chain response, but it cannot essentially solve the problem of the contradiction between supply and demand in the entire society.
It is more consumer-oriented and it is difficult to intervene in the production side. Most businesses only regard live broadcasting as a means of selling goods, and cannot truly incorporate live broadcasting into their business ecology.
Live e-commerce ecological map
From the live broadcast itself, because it is the closest to users, it has received the most public opinion attention and traffic. However, the live broadcast itself has not yet become a stable and recyclable ecosystem. The head is too large. The middle tail is severely atrophy.
and for the majority of live broadcast users, buyWhether it is company or company, in this era of information and material explosion, it is no longer scarce.
From these dimensions, live broadcast and bring goods, whether will be an inevitable long-term choice for commodity sales in the future remains to be verified by the market.
(This article is not reproduced without authorization.)
author | Tian Xiaona
layout | Gu Tianhong
