The first integrated circuit was born in 1958 and was invented by the American Kilby. Since then, the semiconductor integrated circuit industry has developed and made continuous progress in an environment where the market plays a fundamental role. From raw materials, semiconductor equipment, development and design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, to the final market, it has formed a global division of labor and cooperation. The mechanism is basically the world of silicon-based chips. It has been more than 60 years since the birth of the first integrated circuit. The history of silicon chips is more than 60 years, and it is still going on. It is not something that can be replaced by simply replacing it.
Under the premise of strictly following Moore's Law, the most advanced chips that entered the market reached the 7nm process node. Although the subsequent 5nm, 3nm and 2nm chips have not really entered the market now, they can also be mass-produced in fabs. manufacture. TSMC is the world’s leading foundry. According to estimates, in an ideal state, by 2025, 6nm, 5nm and 3nm processes will account for the majority of TSMC’s revenue, while the 2nm and below node processes have not yet started. TSMC contributes revenue. And even if it is a 5nm process node chip, in the early stage it was mainly driven by the needs of two "local tyrants" Huawei and Apple (Samsung could mass produce 5nm chips by itself). In the future, 3nm, and even 2nm and smaller-node chips In fact, it is impossible to say how much demand there is in the market.
Carbon-based chips stay in the laboratory after all, and the commercial prospects are not clear. At least in the next 5 to 7 years, or if there is no huge market demand driven, companies should have little motivation to develop carbon-based chips for commercial applications. A lot of investment. In short, it didn't really resonate strongly in the global industry.
▲From 2018 to 2025, changes in the contribution of each process technology to TSMC’s revenue
Lithography machines and EDA software design tools in the current semiconductor industry , Testing equipment, production process, etc. can be used to manufacture carbon-based chips? Academician Peng Lianmao said: "The utilization rate can reach about 80% to 90%, but the cleaning and etching of carbon tube materials require special treatment. The model of the tube device needs to be established separately." In other words, when silicon-based chips reach the technological limit and can no longer break through, and switch to carbon-based chips, then the industry must rely on other links to promote carbon-based chips to continue to shrink nodes. . For example, photolithography can account for about half of the manufacturing cost of silicon-based semiconductor wafers.
On the one hand, China (including the government, scientific research institutions and enterprises) has invested a lot of manpower, material and financial resources on silicon-based chips, involving raw materials, semiconductor equipment, development and design, manufacturing, For almost all links such as packaging and testing, from the national level, the goal is nothing more than to narrow the gap with international leaders as much as possible, while creating conditions for cultivating a large number of local talents. China has invested such a large amount in the field of integrated circuits that it has not yet digested it, fully understood it, and realized its due return. On the other hand, it is also true that China's semiconductor industry is relatively lagging behind in terms of raw materials, semiconductor production equipment, and software design tools, and it is highly dependent on foreign manufacturers. The most fatal thing is that high-end professionals are scarce and still need to be introduced in large numbers. In this case, even if Chinese domestic semiconductor upstream, midstream and downstream companies are willing to work together to switch to carbon-based chips, hoping to take the lead in realizing the so-called "curve overtaking" abroad, they must consider various possible risks. For example, Huawei and TSMC had a very happy cooperation, but the United States tried to completely prevent TSMC from manufacturing chips for Huawei.
Moreover, Academician Peng Lianmao himself also said: “Modern chip preparation has thousands of steps. If one step is not done well, there will be no good products. Finally, there is a problem of system optimization, materials, devices, and chip design. We are inseparable.”
In addition, Professor Peng Lianmao also said: “The biggest problem facing the manufacture and commercialization of carbon nanotubes is still the determination of the country. If the country provides support for traditional integrated circuit technology With full support from the industry, commercial carbon-based chips should appear in 3-5 years, and carbon-based chips will begin to enter high-end, mainstream applications within 10 years.”
According to published information (some carbon-based chips) The advantages are omitted here), carbon-based chips are the key to the semiconductor industryOne direction, but not sure, is the only inevitable direction of technological development. However, the industry can indeed start from the simplest commercial applications, from simple to complex, from low-end to high-end, from small to large-scale, from professional specific areas to full-scale promotion.
