author/baked buns under the starry sky
editor/spinach’s starry sky
typesetting/leeks under the starry sky
In another month, we will usher in an eye-catching conference - World Robot Conference conference . At this conference, players from all walks of life will surely come up with their own trump cards. It is said that Tesla will launch the humanoid robot "Optimus Prime". The robot's limbs are controlled by 40 electromechanical actuators, which can basically free human hands.
Musk has never lost to anyone on the road to leading industrial change.
In fact, industrial robots have indeed been popular in the industry. With the rapid recovery of new energy and other manufacturing industries in the past two months (the manufacturing PMI has rebounded to 50.2% in June, returning to the expansion range after three consecutive months of contraction), the demand for upstream industrial robots has been driven.
The most intuitive manifestation is the increase in the price of industrial robots . Take Evert (688165) as an example. Starting from the 1st of this month, the prices of all the company's robots have been increased by 3%-10%. Players such as Eston (002747) are also following closely behind, and their production lines are also operating at full capacity.
Capital has only moved ahead, not lagging behind. It has smelled the trend, and the robotics sector has recently given investors good returns. Moreover, some stocks such as Hechuan Technology (688320), which specializes in upstream core components for industrial robots (servo systems), have seen their stock prices nearly double in one month.
Robot Section
In addition, top consulting firms in the industry such as McKinsey are also far-sighted, saying that in eight years, about 400 million jobs around the world will be replaced by automated robots. Isn’t it a good thing to free your hands and improve production efficiency?
So today, we will walk into this track with long slopes and thick snow to see where the opportunities are hidden on the track?
1. Big cake, come and grab it
Last year, the industrial robot industry set a new record. Global sales in 2021 reached .49 million units (the highest in history), an increase of 27 compared to 2020. %, Asia has become the region with the largest growth rate. After experiencing a slump in recent years, the prosperity of industrial robots has re-entered the upward channel .
Our country is well-deserved and has become the world's largest industrial robot application market. According to official data, domestic industrial robot production last year reached 3.366 million units, and sales reached 3.256 million units. They are present in the automotive and electronics industries, as well as in the food and beverage market.
Industrial robot sales
The reasons behind this are also easy to understand. On the one hand, it is the digital and intelligent transformation of the industrial industry, thereby achieving "cost reduction and efficiency improvement"; on the other hand, it is also true that labor supply may be insufficient. and rising costs, leaving many labor-intensive players to find another way out.
In the robot circle, there have always been four major families: FANUC, Yaskawa Electric , ABB, Kuka . These players started early and have deep technology accumulation. They have long monopolized the automobile track, which has extremely strict requirements for industrial robots, and their market share has remained above 550% for many years.
’s good growth prospects coupled with a wide range of application scenarios have allowed domestic independent brands to see the light of day. In the past five years, domestic brands have continued to penetrate into this track, and the market share has increased from the original 18% to the current 33% (Eston’s shipments have entered the top ten in the world).Especially in the past two years, the sudden global epidemic and weak overseas demand have led many domestic players to use the strategy of cutting prices of to grab the market of , which has opened an inflection point for domestic substitution.
Domestic independent brand market share
And in some subdivisions, such as Inovance Technology (300124) focuses on the lithium battery and electronic fields, and Canop strives to develop kitchenware and bicycle fields, both of which have ranked among the top in the world. Location. If you can't eat the big cake, you can shine in the vertical field of . Because Eston can achieve self-sufficiency in more than 80% parts, its gross profit margin level has been significantly higher than ABB and KUKA, and the cooperative order amount with Ningwang ( CATL 300750) exceeds 0 million .
The gross profit margin situation of major industrial robot players
is different from the "long road ahead" of domestic replacement of chips. Industrial robots in many fields have already appeared in large numbers independent brands , and the whirlwind of domestic replacement has begun.
2. Core components still need to be broken through
In addition to the industrial robot itself, looking upstream, there are also places to dig deeper.
To put it bluntly, the core components of the upstream robot mainly include reducer , servo motor and control system . The technical barriers to core components are higher and account for 370% of the total cost. The upstream value high ground is still monopolized by foreign brands.
The main player in upstream parts
has a higher moat, so the gross profit margin is relatively higher. For example, the gross profit margin of the reducer has reached 40%. Domestic players have the capabilities of underlying software architecture and core control algorithm Due to the lack of , there is indeed a big gap in performance between the products of domestic players.
In the field of servo systems (controlling the position, orientation, etc. of objects), taking Hechuan Technology mentioned at the beginning as an example, the revenue of servo systems accounts for nearly 90% of its total revenue, and its revenue is stable. It ranks second among domestic companies (the first is Inovance Technology). Although its stock price has taken off in recent times, judging from the financial statements, it faces the embarrassing situation of increasing revenue but not profit.
What do you think is the reason behind this?
announced the results. On the one hand, players have adopted the strategy of cutting prices to seize the market. On the other hand, the cost of raw materials (such as chips) has soared, which even caused its net profit attributable to shareholders to fall by 17.4% in the first quarter of this year.
Therefore, behind the beauty of the track, there are often bitter stories.
3. High growth does not mean high returns
The example of Hechuan can illustrate that a high-growth track does not necessarily bring huge returns. To put it bluntly, it means grabbing revenue and losing profits.
But I think there is no need to worry too much. The industrial robot track has long been monopolized by four major families. In order to achieve domestic substitution, domestic players are trying to save the country. Starting from the vertical field, they are reducing prices in exchange for market, and using time to win space.
Without labor pains, where can the light come from after so many years?
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm without buying and selling.
