by Kuipeng
Recently a friend and I got into a fight. Many years ago, we went to Xilingol League in Inner Mongolia to plant trees together.
Our difference is that she has supported clearing the ban for a long time, while I support liberalization. After the country was fully liberalized on December 7, the number of cases increased dramatically, and many people died of the epidemic in Beijing and other places. So the lady got very angry and took it out on me.
Next, let’s take a look at my WeChat. She read an article I wrote about Dr. Zhang Wenhong who also supports liberalization of and left a message and my reply:
This doctor friend is also a researcher, so she should be well-informed, but her understanding of the epidemic situation surprised me. She actually thinks that we can maintain a long-term lockdown! I was also surprised by her attitude towards those who support the liberalization of epidemic prevention and control. What I want to say is that this lady really made a mistake. The current "big pot" is not something that the "liberalization faction" will accept!
Source: pixabay
A
Yes, China's epidemic situation is facing a series of severe challenges after liberalization.
After China’s epidemic prevention and control turned 180 degrees on December 7, the number of infections increased sharply. Many people were unable to buy antigens and antipyretics. Patients flocked to hospitals. Unprepared residents rushed to buy medicines and medical supplies. There was a serious disconnect between supply and demand.
Hospitals in many provinces and cities across the country have experienced blood bank emergencies. The Shandong Provincial Blood Center, China's second most populous province, , has recently issued low warnings for blood stocks. In particular, the stocks of type A and type O blood have reached red warning status.
The red alert is the highest level alert in the emergency plan for blood collection and supply, and can only meet the needs of critically ill patients for three days.
I am afraid it is already a confusing account of how many people in our country have been infected with the new coronavirus.
After the epidemic prevention is fully relaxed, it is actually impossible to effectively count the number of cases, but it is speculated that the number of cases has reached hundreds of millions. Around the upcoming Spring Festival, as the number of infected people continues to rise, the challenge will become even greater.
In the capital Beijing, due to too many infected people, medical resources are also facing a severe squeeze. Information about deaths due to the epidemic is reported from time to time. Although there is a lack of reliable official statistical data, and officials no longer count those with underlying diseases as deaths from the coronavirus, but judging from relevant information from Beijing funeral homes and crematoriums, the number of abnormal deaths is very high.
This situation has also led to strong dissatisfaction among the "blocking faction" (also known as the "clearing faction") who have long advocated clearing the ban.
They believe that China’s low mortality rate after infection before the relaxation of prevention and control was based on the fact that all patients received the best treatment. Once there is a medical run after liberalization, this number will skyrocket.
Although the "blockade faction" admits that there is a price for clearing the blockade, they believe that the price for liberalization is even higher.
Because when the peak of infection arrives, the price will be heavier than many people imagine, and many elderly people will die as a result.
The previous concerns of the "lockdown faction" are not unreasonable. After our epidemic was relaxed, it did lead to severe illness and death in many elderly people and other vulnerable groups. However, a large number of abnormal severe illness and death are not the inevitable result of the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control.
Some people say that the adjustment of our epidemic prevention strategy has always been to find a balance point, taking into account the economy, people's livelihood and life and health. Choosing to strictly guard against it or to let it go is essentially choosing the one that is relatively less bad and relatively less costly among two paths. There is never a perfect path without cost. This is a relatively objective and pertinent understanding.
For a long time, some "lockdown factions" have believed that continued lockdown for a long time is the best strategy to deal with the new coronavirus epidemic. However, many people have not paid attention to and understood the latest development trend of the new coronavirus, the valuable lessons and experiences of the entire world in responding to the epidemic, some scientific practices of countries around the world, especially major developed countries, and the huge challenges faced by our country.
The "blockade and control faction" have not carefully considered that there is no solution for a U-turn in national prevention and control. Continuing to advocate long-term "blockade and control" will only make us more and more passive.
Picture source: pixabay
B
Although our three-year "hard-core" prevention and control has played a very good role in epidemic prevention and control, at least minimizing the disease-related deaths, the price paid is unprecedented.
A large amount of the wealth we have accumulated has been consumed, and many local governments have been unable to make ends meet.
Internationally, we are also falling into a more isolated situation, and many foreign-invested industries and companies are leaving China.
Many people who support long-term blockade are either on government pay or have been living a good life (Of course, there are also people with good living conditions and status who support the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control out of cognitive support. There are also many ordinary people who support zero blockade out of fear of new coronavirus). They simply do not fully understand the crises and risks brought about by China's long-term zero-core hard-core prevention and control.
On the other hand, coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has coexisted with human society. This should be a matter of common sense, but some of our experts do not know what considerations they deliberately ignored. The country must be led to spend a lot of manpower, material and financial resources playing a game of whack-a-mole.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus is invisible and intangible to the naked eye, making it extremely difficult to curb its spread.
If the spread speed is slow, it is still reasonable to use the whack-a-mole method. This is an important way for us to deal with other viruses that are pathogenic to humans and even livestock and poultry. In fact, this is also an important reason why my country's epidemic prevention and control was more effective before the Omicron variant was introduced into our country.
can no longer be played like this when it comes to Omicron , which has strong communication power.
Omicron not only spreads quickly, but also has a strong immune evasion ability. It is almost impossible to prevent, and humans cannot effectively build an iron wall to block its spread.
However, some experts in our country firmly believe that it can still be done, misleading relevant government departments onto the wrong path.
In human history, after many large-scale plagues broke out, they often raged in human society for decades, or even hundreds of years. Does it mean that it will take such a long time if we insist on clearing them out?
If things continue like this, it will not only be a problem that the common people cannot bear, but it will also pose even greater social and political dangers. I wonder if the “clearing factions” have such a sense of crisis?
We cannot deny that the sudden relaxation of prevention and control after December 7, 2022 led to a sharp increase in the number of infections. The epidemic situation is fierce, the scope of infection continues to expand, antipyretics and antigens are extremely scarce, and serious shortages of medical resources have occurred in many places. This indeed shows that our preparations are insufficient, but it does not necessarily prove that relaxing is wrong, nor does it mean that continued lockdown is appropriate.
China’s relaxation on the epidemic situation is driven by the general trend, and we will have no problem in liberalizing and turning.
Picture source: pixabay
C
It must be noted that the surge in cases did not appear after the relaxation of restrictions. In fact, before liberalization, there was a sharp increase in many cities.
Throughout November, the number of infections continued to rise in places such as Guangzhou and Beijing. These cities have always implemented the strictest epidemic prevention measures, and large-scale nucleic acid screening is standard. However, even so, the virus is still spreading rapidly.
Zeng Guang, former chief scientist of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , said that there are many reasons for the violent epidemic, and the reasons cannot be attributed to "relaxation." Although his statement was somewhat cruel, it was not unreasonable.
This is mainly because Omicron is really unstoppable this winter.
Starting from the first half of 2022, the fast-spreading Omicron has spread to many places across the country.
reported on March 10, 2022 that the viruses reported by infected people in Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Shaanxi and other places all have Omicron mutant strains. In addition, the Shanghai epidemic has spread to 71 cities in 21 provinces across the country, including Guangxi.
After entering the winter of 2022, not only is the epidemic spreading rapidly in many cities, but the risks to economic operation and social stability are also increasing. There is no way for the country to adjust the prevention and control strategy in a timely manner. We can't wait until the situation becomes unmanageable before making adjustments, right?
China's "liberalists" have no problem supporting liberalization. This is the only way to get China out of its trap.
But how to let go? What steps should be taken to let go? How to deal with various problems that arise after liberalization? This requires strategy.
After the epidemic was relaxed, our cities did not become prosperous quickly. The deserted streets and empty subways in some areas seemed to be evidence that the "liberalists" were greedy for life and fear of death.
"Aren't you clamoring for liberalization? Now that liberalization has been implemented, why don't you dare to go out? You said that liberalization will pick up consumption and the economy will rebound, but why are the streets still deserted now?" Recently, I often see such remarks from the "lockdown faction".
First of all, let me explain that supporting openness and whether individual citizens want to protect themselves are two different things.
Supporting openness does not mean that individual citizens are completely unprepared for the epidemic, not to mention that we have suddenly withdrawn almost all protective shields.
Under this situation, it is a reasonable choice for everyone, including those who actively support liberalization, to stay at home to protect themselves.
Furthermore, due to the impact of some improper transmission during the three years of epidemic prevention, it will also take a process for the general public to psychologically change their understanding of the current Omicron strain .
We can see that after the first round of impact, the popularity of Beijing Street is currently recovering, which is already a good start!
Of course, judging from the current situation, there are still many areas worthy of review and improvement in our liberalization methods and subsequent management methods.
Picture source: pixabay
D
In the eyes of many "blockadeists", the "liberalists" try their best to downplay the harm of the virus, claiming that the virus is just a big cold, and that there will be no major casualties after liberalization.
said that the virus is influenza. This is the voice of some experts. From a scientific point of view, this is not wrong, because influenza is also severe and kills many people every year.
Some people think that if experts say that Omicron has become a major flu, it will not cause any harm. This is obviously a misunderstanding.
In fact, the annual influenza season can cause 290,000-650,000 respiratory disease-related deaths and 3 million-5 million severe cases globally.
A recent study in China used a model method to estimate influenza-related excess respiratory disease deaths based on data from the National Influenza Surveillance and Cause of Death Surveillance System. The results showed that during the 2010-2011 to 2014-2015 epidemic season, there were an average of 88,000 (95% CI 8.4-9.2) excess influenza-related respiratory disease deaths nationwide each year, accounting for 8.2% (95% CI) of respiratory disease deaths. 7.8-9.6).
Among them, the elderly aged 60 and above have the highest risk of death after contracting influenza.
Patients with specific chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease (except simple hypertension), chronic respiratory - 29 - diseases, liver and kidney insufficiency, blood diseases, neurological diseases, neuromuscular dysfunction, metabolic diseases (including diabetes) and other chronic diseases, as well as those with immunosuppressive diseases or immunocompromised people, are at high risk of severe illness after contracting influenza.
The reason why we found this data for comparison is mainly to tell everyone that even a large flu can kill people. Just because Mysterious Chron is equivalent to a large flu does not mean that it is not a threat to our health.
Unfortunately, due to insufficient scientific communication over the years, the general public does not have a clear understanding of the influenza that occurs every year, and they know very little about the huge damage it causes to humans. This has also directly led to some people not taking the now popular Omicron variant seriously.
said that the mysterious mutant strain of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, Keron, is only comparable to large influenza. It is evaluated from a scientific perspective in terms of severe illness rate and mortality. There is nothing wrong with this comparison, but we still cannot ignore the severe illness and death caused by it.
To a certain extent, the seriousness rate and mortality rate caused by the mysterious Kron infection also have a great relationship with whether the medical treatment resources are sufficient and whether there will be a serious medical rush. High seriousness rate and mortality rate are not the inevitable results of opening up.
Picture source: pixabay
E
China’s epidemic prevention and control is a done deal. No matter how much the “blockade and control faction” complains and opposes, they still need to accept the reality. What they need now is to adjust their mentality.
If they still yearn for confinement, they can still confine themselves at home. If they like to do nucleic acid, they can spend their own money to do it every day.
This is not inconsistent with the current general direction of relaxing epidemic prevention and control.
We have seen that China has made great progress in epidemic prevention and control and opening up at the end of 2022.
Following the announcement of the full relaxation of control on December 7, the National Health Commission released a new overall plan for epidemic prevention late at night on December 26, announcing that the management of the coronavirus would be downgraded from January 8, 2023, from the original "Category B and A" to "Category B and B".
There will no longer be isolation measures for people infected with the coronavirus, identification of close contacts, and delineation of high- and low-risk areas. Control of the number of international passenger flights will also be fully liberalized. This marks that China will open its borders on a large scale three years after the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Relaxation is a global trend and trend, and it is a measure that our country must take, but liberalization definitely does not mean lying down.
In fact, there are very few countries in the world that are completely flat. They all adopt strategies that are suitable for their country based on their country's socio-economic development and their ability to respond to the coronavirus.
Although the virulence of Omicron is lower than that of delta, its transmissibility is extremely strong and its immune evasion ability is also very strong. This requires relevant competent authorities to track the mutation of the virus at home and abroad, assess the changes in virus transmissibility, pathogenicity, immune evasion ability and other characteristics, timely follow up and make judgments and take targeted measures.
If we misunderstand liberalization and go to the other extreme to completely lie down, this will cause even more serious disasters for China.
In fact, the "liberation faction" never said that they would lie down on the spot. Being called "lying bandit" by the "blockade faction" is completely a slander.
The "liberalists" just hope that under the new evolving form of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, our country and society will be freed from the prevention and control that emphasizes the dynamic clearing of cases, gradually realize coexistence with the virus under the new form, and in this process find the ideal method to finally resolve the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Of course, this requires the joint efforts of the entire human society and will take a long time.
The full opening of our coronavirus epidemic prevention and control in the winter of 2022 may be a little sudden and the pace is a little faster, but for the country, there may be no solution.
At present, what we need most is how to scientifically prevent the epidemic and minimize losses. This is what we all should do now!
Picture source: pixabay
F
Now that the official movement is no longer restricted in terms of epidemic prevention and control, people must be responsible for their own health and bear all consequences themselves.
Some analysts believe that the central government has handed over the decision-making power of epidemic prevention policies to local governments, and local governments will decide whether to adjust epidemic prevention policies based on their own medical resources.
It should be said that this is a relatively scientific strategy. China has a vast territory and there are great differences in social and economic development levels between the east, west, south and north. Under the background of greater opening up, adjusting the epidemic prevention strategy according to local conditions will be more targeted and effective.
Currently, although cases are surging across the country, it is not that bad.
We can see that all places across the country, including Beijing, have gradually taken action. Now many grassroots levels are adjusting the focus of epidemic response. Although the pace and rhythm are different, they have already taken action.
Everyone is thinking of ways to replenish medicines, hospital beds, ICU wards, etc. This is a good start.
We believe that with the implementation of these measures, as long as we survive this round of infection peaks, the number of severe patients and deaths will continue to decrease, and the social economy will return to normal operation as soon as possible.
In the future, although the epidemic will continue to recur, as long as no more virulent and pathogenic strains of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerge during the evolution, we do not need to worry too much.
To take a step back, more severe strains of the virus have emerged. I believe that after three years of fighting the epidemic, our response will be more calm. Of course, there is still a long way to go to eliminate interference from non-scientific factors.
declares
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